Joao Fonseca and Hugo Gaston will fight against each other in the quarter of the Phoenix Challenger for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Friday at 7:00 pm on CENTER COURT. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Joao Fonseca who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Joao Fonseca is the pick to win this match.
Joao Fonseca -> 1.22
Hugo Gaston -> 3.92
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Prediction and head to head Joao Fonseca vs. Hugo Gaston
There is no head to head record between Joao Fonseca and Hugo Gaston since this will be the first time that they will fight against each other in the main tour.
Joao Fonseca
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 17-4 | 12-2 | 5-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 37-23 | 8-3 | 14-11 | 13-5 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 11-6 | 1-1 | 10-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 5-4 | 0-0 | 5-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 80, the Brazilian reached the quarter after beating Pavel Kotov 6-2 6-4 and Jan-Lennard Struff 6-1 4-6 6-3.
In the 2nd round, Joao defeated Struff (6-1 4-6 6-3). During the match, Fonseca scored 94 points vs Struff’s 80. Fonseca was exceptionally aggressive to blast 43 winners.
Regarding the service games, Fonseca made 4 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Joao Fonseca lost the serve twice and he saved 5 break points. Furthermore, Fonseca put 69% of his first serves in, winning 73% (43/59) of the points behind his 1st serve and 44% (12/27) on the 2nd serve. Fonseca broke Struff 5 times after converting 33% of his break points (5/15).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Joao has dropped 1 set in this competition to conquer 55% of the points he played.
Fonseca has a solid match record in the last 4 years having won 65% of his matches (70-37). 12-2 on hard in 2025. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this event, Fonseca has an overall21-6 record in the last 4 years on hard.
His best result of the current season was conquering the title the Canberra Challenger where he overcame Ethan Quinn in the final 6-4 6-4 and in Buenos Aires where he defeated Francisco Cerundolo in the final 6-4 7-6(1).
The Brazilian has a composed 17-4 win-loss record in 2025, 12-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Phoenix Challenger
The Brazilian has never competed in this tournament before.
Hugo Gaston
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 6-7 | 6-4 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 31-31 | 5-12 | 15-11 | 8-6 | 3-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 45-32 | 6-5 | 30-18 | 8-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 27-31 | 4-9 | 4-8 | 16-11 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 44-30 | 2-3 | 32-16 | 10-10 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 93, the French player reached the quarter after defeating Adam Walton 6-2 6-4 and Reilly Opelka 7-6(6) 6-3.
In the 2nd round, The French player had a good straight sets win against Opelka (7-66 6-3). During the match Gaston scored 75 points vs Opelka’s 65. Gaston was quite aggressive to blast 33 winners.
Talking about serving, Gaston scored 3 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Overall, Hugo Gaston was extremely efficient on serve to win 85% (33/39) of his 1st serve and 56% (14/25) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Gaston broke Opelka twice after converting 33% of his break points (2/6).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Gaston hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 55% of the points he played.
Gaston has an overall 6-7 win-loss record in 2025, 6-4 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Phoenix Challenger
Previously, his best result was reaching the 1st round in 2022 and 2024. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Fonseca | Gaston |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 2 |
| Tot Set | 5 | 4 |
| Tot Games | 44 | 40 |
| Pts | 164-132 | 139-113 |
| Total Points | 296 | 252 |
| Winners | 70 | 52 |
| %Winners | 43% | 37% |
Both Fonseca and Gaston played 2 matches. At the moment, Joao Fonseca surrendered 1 set while Hugo Gaston hasn’t surrendered a set so far. Fonseca has played 1 set more than Gaston (5 vs 4). Therefore, Fonseca played 4 games more than Gaston. Fonseca scored 70 winners (43% of the total points). On the other side, Hugo fired 52 winners (37%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Fonseca | Gaston |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 5 | 6 |
| Avg per match | 2.5 | 3 |
| 1st in | 92/135 | 67/122 |
| %1st in | 68% | 55% |
| 1st pts | 70/92 | 52/67 |
| %1st pts | 76% | 78% |
| 2nd pts | 22/43 | 34/55 |
| %2nd pts | 51% | 62% |
Fonseca managed to score 5 aces (2.5 per match). Gaston bagged 6 aces (3 per match). Fonseca won 76% points on his first serve. He quite strong on his second serve to win 51% of the points. On the other side, Gaston won 78% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 62% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Fonseca | Gaston |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 8 | 6 |
| Converted | 8/26 | 6/16 |
| % Converted | 31% | 38% |
| Conceded | 7 | 6 |
| Saved | 5 | 4 |
| % Saved | 71% | 67% |
| Times Broken | 2 | 2 |
Fonseca broke his opponents 8 times with a 31% conversion rate. Fonseca conceded his serve twice and he saved 71% of the break points that he conceded. The French player broke his opponents 6 times with a 38% conversion rate. Gaston conceded his serve twice and he saved 67% of the break points that he conceded.
| Fonseca | ||||
| R1 Kotov |
R2 Struff |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 6-4 | 6-1 4-6 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 5 | |
| Tot Games | 18 | 26 | 44 | |
| pts | 70-52 | 94-80 | 164-132 | |
| Total points | 122 | 174 | 296 | |
| Winners | 27 | 43 | 70 | |
| %Winners | 39% | 46% | 43% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 1 | 4 | 5 | |
| Double Faults | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| 1st in | 33/49 | 59/86 | 92/135 | |
| % 1st in | 67% | 69% | 68% | |
| 1st pts | 27/33 | 43/59 | 70/92 | |
| % 1st pts | 82% | 73% | 76% | |
| 2nd pts | 10/16 | 12/27 | 22/43 | |
| % 2nd pts | 63% | 44% | 51% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 3 | 5 | 8 | |
| Converted | 3/11 | 5/15 | 8/26 | |
| Converted % | 27% | 33% | 31% | |
| Conceded | 0 | 7 | 7 | |
| Saved | 0/0 | 5/7 | 5 | |
| Saved % | – | 71% | 36% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Gaston | ||||
| R1 Walton |
R2 Opelka |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 6-4 | 7-66 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Tot Games | 18 | 22 | 40 | |
| pts | 64-48 | 75-65 | 139-113 | |
| Total points | 112 | 140 | 252 | |
| Winners | 19 | 33 | 52 | |
| %Winners | 30% | 44% | 37% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 3 | 3 | 6 | |
| Double Faults | 0 | 3 | 3 | |
| 1st in | 28/58 | 39/64 | 67/122 | |
| % 1st in | 48% | 61% | 55% | |
| 1st pts | 19/28 | 33/39 | 52/67 | |
| % 1st pts | 68% | 85% | 78% | |
| 2nd pts | 20/30 | 14/25 | 34/55 | |
| % 2nd pts | 67% | 56% | 62% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 4 | 2 | 6 | |
| Converted | 4/10 | 2/6 | 6/16 | |
| Converted % | 40% | 33% | 38% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 2 | 6 | |
| Saved | 3/4 | 1/2 | 4 | |
| Saved % | 75% | 50% | 63% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
Head 2 Head
WWLWLWWWWW
WWLWWWLLLL 
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