Iga Swiatek and Mirra Andreeva will fight against each other in the semifinal of the BNP Paribas Open for the 3^rd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Friday at 4:00 pm on STADIUM 1. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Iga Swiatek who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Iga Swiatek is the pick to win this match.
Iga Swiatek -> 1.59
Mirra Andreeva -> 2.36

Click here to see the updated quotes and live streaming (only selected countries - USA excluded).

To be able to watch live streaming bet365, a funded account is required or you need to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. 18+ BeGambleAware.

Here where top tennis events are broadcasted or streamed online (ATP, WTA).

At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.

 

Prediction and head to head Iga Swiatek vs. Mirra Andreeva

This will be the 3^rd time that Iga Swiatek and Mirra Andreeva play each other. The head to head is 1-1 for Swiatek and Andreeva (see full H2H stats),but they are 1-1 on hard.

The last time that they squared off, Andreeva won 6-3 6-3 in the quarter in Dubai back in February 2025.

Highlights Mirra Andreeva vs Iga Swiatek – Dubai 20-February-2025

Iga Swiatek

Ranked no. 2, the Pole got to the semifinal after defeating Unknown Player bye, Caroline Garcia 6-2 6-0, Dayana Yastremska 6-0 6-2, Karolina Muchova 6-1 6-1 and Qinwen Zheng 6-3 6-3.

In the quarter, The Pole had a good straight sets win against Zheng (6-3 6-3). During the match, Swiatek scored 66 points vs Zheng’s 47. The Pole was extremely aggressive to blast 26 winners.

Regarding the service games, Swiatek scored just 1 ace for the entire match and she committed only 2 double faults. Iga Swiatek lost the serve twice and she saved 3 break points. Furthermore, Swiatek put 65% of her first serves in, winning 74% (26/35) of the points behind her 1st serve and 42% (8/19) on the 2nd serve. The Pole was clinical in her return game without wasting any break point and break Zheng 5 times.

Overall Performance in this tournament

Iga hasn’t surrendered yet a set in this tournament to conquer 63% of the points she played.

Swiatek has a fantastic match record in the last 10 years having won 82% of her matches (367-80). 18-4 on hard in 2025. Regarding her performance on the same surface of this event, Swiatek has a composed 180-46 match record in the last years on hard.

Swiatek’s best result of the season was reaching the final in Australia.

Swiatek has a composed 18-4 win-loss record in 2025, 18-4 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Indian Wells

Mirra Andreeva

Ranked no. 11, Mirra reached the semifinal after beating Unknown Player bye, Varvara Gracheva 7-5 6-4, Clara Tauson 6-3 6-0, Elena Rybakina 6-1 6-2 and Elina Svitolina 7-5 6-3.

In the quarter, Mirra had a good straight sets win against Svitolina (7-5 6-3). During the match Andreeva scored 71 points vs Svitolina’s 53. Mirra was pretty aggressive to blast 28 winners.

About the serving games, Andreeva wasn’t able to score even 1 ace for the entire match and she committed only 2 double faults. Overall, Mirra Andreeva was very effective on serve to win 82% (28/34) of her 1st serve and 67% (12/18) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent her to concede the serve once. Mirra broke Svitolina 4 times after converting 44% of her break points (4/9).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Russian hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 58% of the points she played.

Her best result of the season was winning the title in Dubai where she overcame Clara Tauson in the final 7-6(1) 6-1.

The Russian has a composed 17-3 win-loss record in 2025, 17-3 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Indian Wells

Previously, her best result was reaching the 1^st round in 2024. See her history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Swiatek	Andreeva
Match played	4	4
Tot Set	8	8
Tot Games	60	73
Pts	231-138	259-186
Total Points	369	445
Winners	82	91
%Winners	35%	35%

Both Swiatek and Andreeva played 4 matches. Both players have not surrendered a single set in this event so far. Talking about their workload, Swiatek and Andreeva have played the same amount of sets 8. However, Swiatek played 13 games less than Andreeva. Iga scored 82 winners (35% of the total points). On the other side, Mirra blasted 91 winners (35%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Swiatek	Andreeva
Aces	5	7
Avg per match	1.3	1.8
1st in	107/177	125/199
%1st in	60%	63%
1st pts	82/107	91/125
%1st pts	77%	73%
2nd pts	38/70	43/74
%2nd pts	54%	58%

Swiatek managed to score 5 aces (1.3 per match). Andreeva fired 7 aces (1.8 per match). Swiatek won 77% points behind her first serve. She pretty effective on her second serve to win 54% of the points. On the other side, Andreeva won 73% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 58% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Swiatek	Andreeva
Won	21	21
Converted	21/36	21/40
% Converted	58%	53%
Conceded	9	13
Saved	6	7
% Saved	67%	54%
Times Broken	3	6

Iga broke her opponents 21 times with a 58% conversion rate. Iga conceded her serve 3 times and she saved 67% of the break points that she conceded. Mirra broke her opponents 21 times with a 53% conversion rate. Andreeva conceded her serve 6 times and she saved 54% of the break points that she conceded.

Swiatek
	R2 Garcia	R3 Yastremska	R4 Muchova	1/4 Zheng	Total
Score	6-2 6-0	6-0 6-2	6-1 6-1	6-3 6-3
Tot Set	2	2	2	2	8
Tot Games	14	14	14	18	60
pts	57-31	58-34	50-26	66-47	231-138
Total points	88	92	76	113	369
Winners	19	16	21	26	82
%Winners	33%	28%	42%	39%	35%
SERVE
Aces	3	1	0	1	5
Double Faults	3	1	1	2	7
1st in	28/44	20/42	24/37	35/54	107/177
% 1st in	64%	48%	65%	65%	60%
1st pts	19/28	16/20	21/24	26/35	82/107
% 1st pts	68%	80%	88%	74%	77%
2nd pts	9/16	14/22	7/13	8/19	38/70
% 2nd pts	56%	64%	54%	42%	54%
Breaks
Won	6	5	5	5	21
Converted	6/9	5/11	5/11	5/5	21/36
Converted %	67%	45%	45%	100%	58%
Conceded	4	0	0	5	9
Saved	3/4	0/0	0/0	3/5	6
Saved %	75%	–	–	60%	34%
Times Broken	1	0	0	2	3

Andreeva
	R2 Gracheva	R3 Tauson	R4 Rybakina	1/4 Svitolina	Total
Score	7-5 6-4	6-3 6-0	6-1 6-2	7-5 6-3
Tot Set	2	2	2	2	8
Tot Games	22	15	15	21	73
pts	76-64	54-32	58-37	71-53	259-186
Total points	140	86	95	124	445
Winners	25	18	20	28	91
%Winners	33%	33%	34%	39%	35%
SERVE
Aces	2	3	2	0	7
Double Faults	2	1	1	2	6
1st in	42/69	24/38	25/40	34/52	125/199
% 1st in	61%	63%	63%	65%	63%
1st pts	25/42	18/24	20/25	28/34	91/125
% 1st pts	60%	75%	80%	82%	73%
2nd pts	15/27	10/14	6/15	12/18	43/74
% 2nd pts	56%	71%	40%	67%	58%
Breaks
Won	6	5	6	4	21
Converted	6/10	5/9	6/12	4/9	21/40
Converted %	60%	56%	50%	44%	53%
Conceded	6	0	1	6	13
Saved	2/6	0/0	0/1	5/6	7
Saved %	33%	–	0%	83%	29%
Times Broken	4	0	1	1	6

Tennis Scores in Indian Wells

• Asia Muhammad/Demi SchuursMuhammad/Demi Schuurs – Katerina Siniakova/Taylor TownsendSiniakova/Taylor Townsend (6-4 4-6 10-8) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Tereza Mihalikova/Olivia NichollsMihalikova/Olivia Nicholls – Su-Wei Hsieh/Shuai ZhangHsieh/Shuai Zhang (7-5 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Albert Alcaraz IvorraAlcaraz Ivorra – Matheus Pucinelle De AlmeidaPucinelle De Almeida (6-3 7-5) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Giovanni FonioFonio – Thomas FancuttFancutt (6-4 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Madison KeysKeys (4-2) – H2H and prediction