
Aryna Sabalenka and Madison Keys will fight against each other in the semifinal of the BNP Paribas Open for the 7th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Friday at 6:00 pm on STADIUM 1. Here the head to head stats and relative prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aryna Sabalenka who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Aryna Sabalenka is the pick to win this match.
Aryna Sabalenka -> 1.47
Madison Keys -> 2.68
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Prediction and head to head Aryna Sabalenka vs. Madison Keys
This will be the 7th time that Aryna Sabalenka and Madison Keys play each other. The head to head is 4-2 for Sabalenka (see full H2H stats), 3-1 on hard.
The last time that they fought against each other, Keys won 6-3 2-6 7-5 in the final in at the Australian Open back in January 2025.
Highlights Madison Keys vs Aryna Sabalenka – Australian Open 25-January-2025
Aryna Sabalenka
Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 | 44-8 | 23-4 | 17-3 | 0-0 | 4-1 | 0-0 |
2024 | 56-14 | 38-7 | 15-4 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
2023 | 55-14 | 35-9 | 14-3 | 0-0 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
2022 | 33-22 | 20-15 | 9-5 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
2021 | 45-18 | 24-11 | 13-3 | 1-1 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
Currently world no. 1 Aryna got to the semifinal after beating Unknown Player bye, Mccartney Kessler 7-6(4) 6-3, Lucia Bronzetti 6-1 6-2, Sonay Kartal 6-1 6-2 and Liudmila Samsonova 6-2 6-3.
In the quarter, The Belarussian had a good straight sets win against Samsonova (6-2 6-3). During the match, Sabalenka scored 64 points vs Samsonova’s 45. Aryna was extremely aggressive to blast 24 winners.
Talking about the service games, Sabalenka scored just 1 ace in the encounter and she was extremely solid in conceding no double faults. Aryna Sabalenka lost the serve twice. Furthermore, Sabalenka put 69% of her first serves in, winning 71% (24/34) of the points behind her 1st serve and 47% (7/15) on the 2nd serve. Aryna broke Samsonova 5 times after converting 63% of her break points (5/8).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Aryna hasn’t dropped yet a set in this event to win 59% of the points she played.
Sabalenka has a solid win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 70% of her matches (390-171). 16-3 on hard in 2025. Regarding her performance on the same surface of this tournament, Sabalenka has an aggregate 243-95 match record in the last years on hard.
Her best result of the season was winning the title in Brisbane where she defeated Polina Kudermetova in the final 4-6 6-3 6-2.
Sabalenka has a compiled 16-3 win-loss record in 2025, 16-3 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Indian Wells
Madison Keys
Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 | 32-9 | 19-3 | 9-4 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
2024 | 24-12 | 7-6 | 13-4 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
2023 | 33-15 | 19-9 | 5-3 | 0-2 | 9-1 | 0-0 |
2022 | 30-20 | 25-12 | 4-4 | 0-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
2021 | 11-15 | 3-9 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 5-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 5 (career-high), the American reached the semifinal after beating Unknown Player bye, Anastasia Potapova 6-3 6-0, Elise Mertens 6-2 6-7(8) 6-4, Donna Vekic 4-6 7-6(7) 6-3 and Belinda Bencic 6-1 6-1.
In the quarter, Madison had a good straight sets win against Bencic (6-1 6-1). During the match Keys scored 61 points vs Bencic’s 39. Madison was pretty aggressive to blast 22 winners.
Talking about serving, Keys bagged 2 aces and she committed only 2 double faults. Madison Keys lost the serve once and she saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Keys put 63% of her first serves in, winning 73% (22/30) of the points behind her 1st serve and 39% (7/18) on the 2nd serve. The American broke Bencic 6 times after converting 55% of her break points (6/11).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The American has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 55% of the points she played.
Her best result of the year was conquering the title in Adelaide where she defeated Jessica Pegula in the final 6-3 4-6 6-1 and at the Australian Open where she beat Aryna Sabalenka in the final 6-3 2-6 7-5.
Madison has an overall 18-1 win-loss record in 2025, 18-1 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Indian Wells
Previously, her best result was reaching the quarter in 2022. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
Points | Sabalenka | Keys |
---|---|---|
Match played | 4 | 4 |
Tot Set | 8 | 10 |
Tot Games | 69 | 92 |
Pts | 261-184 | 356-294 |
Total Points | 445 | 650 |
Winners | 99 | 137 |
%Winners | 38% | 38% |
Both Sabalenka and Keys played 4 matches. At the moment, Madison Keys surrendered 2 sets while Aryna Sabalenka hasn’t dropped a set so far. Sabalenka has played 2 set(s) less than Keys (8 vs 10). Therefore, Sabalenka played 23 games less than Keys. Sabalenka scored 99 winners (38% of the total points). On the other side, Madison bagged 137 winners (38%).
Serve Performance
Serve | Sabalenka | Keys |
---|---|---|
Aces | 11 | 14 |
Avg per match | 2.8 | 3.5 |
1st in | 129/199 | 188/311 |
%1st in | 65% | 60% |
1st pts | 99/129 | 137/188 |
%1st pts | 77% | 73% |
2nd pts | 37/70 | 56/123 |
%2nd pts | 53% | 46% |
Sabalenka bagged 11 aces (2.8 per match). Keys recorded 14 aces (3.5 per match). Sabalenka won 77% points on her first serve. She extremely effective on her second serve to win 53% of the points. On the other side, Keys won 73% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 46% of the points.
How they played the important points
Breaks | Sabalenka | Keys |
---|---|---|
Won | 17 | 22 |
Converted | 17/31 | 22/48 |
% Converted | 55% | 46% |
Conceded | 7 | 29 |
Saved | 3 | 21 |
% Saved | 43% | 72% |
Times Broken | 4 | 8 |
Aryna broke her opponents 17 times with a 55% conversion rate. Aryna surrendered her serve 4 times and she saved 43% of the break points that she conceded. Keys broke her opponents 22 times with a 46% conversion rate. The American conceded her serve 8 times and she saved 72% of the break points that she conceded.
Sabalenka | ||||||
R2 Kessler |
R3 Bronzetti |
R4 Kartal |
1/4 Samsonova |
Total | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Score | 7-64 6-3 | 6-1 6-2 | 6-1 6-2 | 6-2 6-3 | ||
Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | |
Tot Games | 22 | 15 | 15 | 17 | 69 | |
pts | 73-59 | 64-41 | 60-39 | 64-45 | 261-184 | |
Total points | 132 | 105 | 99 | 109 | 445 | |
Winners | 31 | 21 | 23 | 24 | 99 | |
%Winners | 42% | 33% | 38% | 38% | 38% | |
SERVE | ||||||
Aces | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 | |
Double Faults | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
1st in | 36/57 | 28/47 | 31/46 | 34/49 | 129/199 | |
% 1st in | 63% | 60% | 67% | 69% | 65% | |
1st pts | 31/36 | 21/28 | 23/31 | 24/34 | 99/129 | |
% 1st pts | 86% | 75% | 74% | 71% | 77% | |
2nd pts | 13/21 | 10/19 | 7/15 | 7/15 | 37/70 | |
% 2nd pts | 62% | 53% | 47% | 47% | 53% | |
Breaks | ||||||
Won | 2 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 17 | |
Converted | 2/3 | 5/12 | 5/8 | 5/8 | 17/31 | |
Converted % | 67% | 42% | 63% | 63% | 55% | |
Conceded | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | |
Saved | 0/0 | 2/3 | 1/2 | 0/2 | 3 | |
Saved % | – | 67% | 50% | 0% | 29% | |
Times Broken | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
Keys | ||||||
R2 Potapova |
R3 Mertens |
R4 Vekic |
1/4 Bencic |
Total | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Score | 6-3 6-0 | 6-2 6-78 6-4 | 4-6 7-67 6-3 | 6-1 6-1 | ||
Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 10 | |
Tot Games | 15 | 31 | 32 | 14 | 92 | |
pts | 63-35 | 128-123 | 104-97 | 61-39 | 356-294 | |
Total points | 98 | 251 | 201 | 100 | 650 | |
Winners | 17 | 57 | 41 | 22 | 137 | |
%Winners | 27% | 45% | 39% | 36% | 38% | |
SERVE | ||||||
Aces | 0 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 14 | |
Double Faults | 4 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 22 | |
1st in | 22/44 | 76/128 | 60/91 | 30/48 | 188/311 | |
% 1st in | 50% | 59% | 66% | 63% | 60% | |
1st pts | 17/22 | 57/76 | 41/60 | 22/30 | 137/188 | |
% 1st pts | 77% | 75% | 68% | 73% | 73% | |
2nd pts | 14/22 | 17/52 | 18/31 | 7/18 | 56/123 | |
% 2nd pts | 64% | 33% | 58% | 39% | 46% | |
Breaks | ||||||
Won | 6 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 22 | |
Converted | 6/9 | 6/16 | 4/12 | 6/11 | 22/48 | |
Converted % | 67% | 38% | 33% | 55% | 46% | |
Conceded | 6 | 15 | 5 | 3 | 29 | |
Saved | 5/6 | 12/15 | 2/5 | 2/3 | 21 | |
Saved % | 83% | 80% | 40% | 67% | 68% | |
Times Broken | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 |
Head 2 Head



Tennis Scores in Indian Wells
- Asia Muhammad/Demi SchuursMuhammad/Demi Schuurs – Katerina Siniakova/Taylor TownsendSiniakova/Taylor Townsend (6-4 4-6 10-8) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Tereza Mihalikova/Olivia NichollsMihalikova/Olivia Nicholls – Su-Wei Hsieh/Shuai ZhangHsieh/Shuai Zhang (7-5 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Albert Alcaraz IvorraAlcaraz Ivorra – Matheus Pucinelle De AlmeidaPucinelle De Almeida (6-3 7-5) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Giovanni FonioFonio – Thomas FancuttFancutt (6-4 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Madison KeysKeys (4-2) – H2H and prediction