H2H, prediction of Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys in Indian Wells with odds, preview, pick | 14th March 2025

PREVIEW. Indian Wells. Sabalenka and Keys will fight against each other in the semifinal of the BNP Paribas Open. See the prediction, H2H stats, odds, and preview of their next match on Friday the 14th of March

Prediction and head to head Aryna Sabalenka vs. Madison Keys

Aryna Sabalenka and Madison Keys will fight against each other in the semifinal of the BNP Paribas Open for the 7th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Friday at 6:00 pm on STADIUM 1. Here the head to head stats and relative prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aryna Sabalenka who should win in 3 sets.

See updated oddsAs per the initial odds, Aryna Sabalenka is the pick to win this match.
Aryna Sabalenka -> 1.47
Madison Keys -> 2.68

Click here to see the updated quotes and live streaming (only selected countries - USA excluded).

To be able to watch live streaming bet365, a funded account is required or you need to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. 18+ BeGambleAware.

Here where top tennis events are broadcasted or streamed online (ATP, WTA).

At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.

 

Soccer Tonic Predictions

Prediction and head to head Aryna Sabalenka vs. Madison Keys

This will be the 7th time that Aryna Sabalenka and Madison Keys play each other. The head to head is 4-2 for Sabalenka (see full H2H stats), 3-1 on hard.

The last time that they fought against each other, Keys won 6-3 2-6 7-5 in the final in at the Australian Open back in January 2025.

Highlights Madison Keys vs Aryna Sabalenka – Australian Open 25-January-2025

Aryna Sabalenka

Aryna Sabalenka
Aryna Sabalenka

17 - 3win/loss

Hard
17-3
I Hard
0-0
Rank
1
High
1
WWLWWLWWWW
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 44-8 23-4 17-3 0-0 4-1 0-0
2024 56-14 38-7 15-4 2-2 1-1 0-0
2023 55-14 35-9 14-3 0-0 6-2 0-0
2022 33-22 20-15 9-5 0-0 4-2 0-0
2021 45-18 24-11 13-3 1-1 7-3 0-0

Currently world no. 1 Aryna got to the semifinal after beating Unknown Player bye, Mccartney Kessler 7-6(4) 6-3, Lucia Bronzetti 6-1 6-2, Sonay Kartal 6-1 6-2 and Liudmila Samsonova 6-2 6-3.

In the quarter, The Belarussian had a good straight sets win against Samsonova (6-2 6-3). During the match, Sabalenka scored 64 points vs Samsonova’s 45. Aryna was extremely aggressive to blast 24 winners.

Talking about the service games, Sabalenka scored just 1 ace in the encounter and she was extremely solid in conceding no double faults. Aryna Sabalenka lost the serve twice. Furthermore, Sabalenka put 69% of her first serves in, winning 71% (24/34) of the points behind her 1st serve and 47% (7/15) on the 2nd serve. Aryna broke Samsonova 5 times after converting 63% of her break points (5/8).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Aryna hasn’t dropped yet a set in this event to win 59% of the points she played.

Sabalenka has a solid win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 70% of her matches (390-171). 16-3 on hard in 2025. Regarding her performance on the same surface of this tournament, Sabalenka has an aggregate 243-95 match record in the last years on hard.

Her best result of the season was winning the title in Brisbane where she defeated Polina Kudermetova in the final 4-6 6-3 6-2.

Sabalenka has a compiled 16-3 win-loss record in 2025, 16-3 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Indian Wells

Sabalenka
Indian Wells
Sabalenka's Record

Madison Keys

Madison Keys
Madison Keys

18 - 2win/loss

Hard
18-2
I Hard
0-0
Rank
8
High
5
WWLLWWLWWW
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 32-9 19-3 9-4 0-0 4-2 0-0
2024 24-12 7-6 13-4 0-0 4-2 0-0
2023 33-15 19-9 5-3 0-2 9-1 0-0
2022 30-20 25-12 4-4 0-3 1-1 0-0
2021 11-15 3-9 3-4 0-0 5-2 0-0

Ranked no. 5 (career-high), the American reached the semifinal after beating Unknown Player bye, Anastasia Potapova 6-3 6-0, Elise Mertens 6-2 6-7(8) 6-4, Donna Vekic 4-6 7-6(7) 6-3 and Belinda Bencic 6-1 6-1.

In the quarter, Madison had a good straight sets win against Bencic (6-1 6-1). During the match Keys scored 61 points vs Bencic’s 39. Madison was pretty aggressive to blast 22 winners.

Talking about serving, Keys bagged 2 aces and she committed only 2 double faults. Madison Keys lost the serve once and she saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Keys put 63% of her first serves in, winning 73% (22/30) of the points behind her 1st serve and 39% (7/18) on the 2nd serve. The American broke Bencic 6 times after converting 55% of her break points (6/11).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The American has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 55% of the points she played.

Her best result of the year was conquering the title in Adelaide where she defeated Jessica Pegula in the final 6-3 4-6 6-1 and at the Australian Open where she beat Aryna Sabalenka in the final 6-3 2-6 7-5.

Madison has an overall 18-1 win-loss record in 2025, 18-1 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Indian Wells

Previously, her best result was reaching the quarter in 2022. See her history.

Keys
Indian Wells
Keys's Record
Bonus
Soccer Tonic Predictions

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

A.Sabalenka
M.Keys
5h:20
5h:20
Time on court​
7h:13
7h:13
1h:22
1h:22
Last match​
1h:04
1h:04
4
4
Match played
4
4
69
69
Games Played​
92
92
8
8
Set played​​
10
10
261
261
Total points​
356
356
65.3
65.3
Avg point​
89
89
99
99
Winners
137
137
24.8
24.8
Avg Winners​
34.3
34.3
38%
38%
Ratio winners
38%
38%
-- Serve --
11
11
Aces
14
14
2.8
2.8
Avg Aces
3.5
3.5
5
5
Double Faults
22
22
1.3
1.3
Avg Double Faults
!
5.5
5.5
99/129
99/129
1st won total​
137/188
137/188
!
77%
77%
1st won %
!
73%
73%
37/70
37/70
2nd won total​
56/123
56/123
53%
53%
2nd won %
46%
46%
-- Break Points --
17/31
17/31
BP won
22/48
22/48
4.3/7.8
4.3/7.8
Avg BP won
5.5/12
5.5/12
!
55%
55%
Won
46%
46%
7
7
Conceded
29
29
1.8
1.8
Avg Conceded
7.3
7.3
4
4
Broken
8
8
1
1
Avg Broken
2
2
3
3
Saved
21
21

Matches, sets, games and points

Points Sabalenka Keys
Match played 4 4
Tot Set 8 10
Tot Games 69 92
Pts 261-184 356-294
Total Points 445 650
Winners 99 137
%Winners 38% 38%

Both Sabalenka and Keys played 4 matches. At the moment, Madison Keys surrendered 2 sets while Aryna Sabalenka hasn’t dropped a set so far. Sabalenka has played 2 set(s) less than Keys (8 vs 10). Therefore, Sabalenka played 23 games less than Keys. Sabalenka scored 99 winners (38% of the total points). On the other side, Madison bagged 137 winners (38%).

Serve Performance

Serve Sabalenka Keys
Aces 11 14
Avg per match 2.8 3.5
1st in 129/199 188/311
%1st in 65% 60%
1st pts 99/129 137/188
%1st pts 77% 73%
2nd pts 37/70 56/123
%2nd pts 53% 46%

Sabalenka bagged 11 aces (2.8 per match). Keys recorded 14 aces (3.5 per match). Sabalenka won 77% points on her first serve. She extremely effective on her second serve to win 53% of the points. On the other side, Keys won 73% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 46% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks Sabalenka Keys
Won 17 22
Converted 17/31 22/48
% Converted 55% 46%
Conceded 7 29
Saved 3 21
% Saved 43% 72%
Times Broken 4 8

Aryna broke her opponents 17 times with a 55% conversion rate. Aryna surrendered her serve 4 times and she saved 43% of the break points that she conceded. Keys broke her opponents 22 times with a 46% conversion rate. The American conceded her serve 8 times and she saved 72% of the break points that she conceded.

Sabalenka
R2
Kessler
R3
Bronzetti
R4
Kartal
1/4
Samsonova
Total
Score 7-64 6-3 6-1 6-2 6-1 6-2 6-2 6-3
Tot Set 2 2 2 2 8
Tot Games 22 15 15 17 69
pts 73-59 64-41 60-39 64-45 261-184
Total points 132 105 99 109 445
Winners 31 21 23 24 99
%Winners 42% 33% 38% 38% 38%
SERVE
Aces 6 2 2 1 11
Double Faults 2 2 1 0 5
1st in 36/57 28/47 31/46 34/49 129/199
% 1st in 63% 60% 67% 69% 65%
1st pts 31/36 21/28 23/31 24/34 99/129
% 1st pts 86% 75% 74% 71% 77%
2nd pts 13/21 10/19 7/15 7/15 37/70
% 2nd pts 62% 53% 47% 47% 53%
Breaks
Won 2 5 5 5 17
Converted 2/3 5/12 5/8 5/8 17/31
Converted % 67% 42% 63% 63% 55%
Conceded 0 3 2 2 7
Saved 0/0 2/3 1/2 0/2 3
Saved % 67% 50% 0% 29%
Times Broken 0 1 1 2 4
Keys
R2
Potapova
R3
Mertens
R4
Vekic
1/4
Bencic
Total
Score 6-3 6-0 6-2 6-78 6-4 4-6 7-67 6-3 6-1 6-1
Tot Set 2 3 3 2 10
Tot Games 15 31 32 14 92
pts 63-35 128-123 104-97 61-39 356-294
Total points 98 251 201 100 650
Winners 17 57 41 22 137
%Winners 27% 45% 39% 36% 38%
SERVE
Aces 0 5 7 2 14
Double Faults 4 12 4 2 22
1st in 22/44 76/128 60/91 30/48 188/311
% 1st in 50% 59% 66% 63% 60%
1st pts 17/22 57/76 41/60 22/30 137/188
% 1st pts 77% 75% 68% 73% 73%
2nd pts 14/22 17/52 18/31 7/18 56/123
% 2nd pts 64% 33% 58% 39% 46%
Breaks
Won 6 6 4 6 22
Converted 6/9 6/16 4/12 6/11 22/48
Converted % 67% 38% 33% 55% 46%
Conceded 6 15 5 3 29
Saved 5/6 12/15 2/5 2/3 21
Saved % 83% 80% 40% 67% 68%
Times Broken 1 3 3 1 8

Head 2 Head

Win Loss
Sabalenka
WWLWWLWWWW
Keys
WWLLWWLWWW
2025 2024 2023
44 - 8
32 - 9
23-4
Hard
19-3
17-3
Clay
9-4
4-1
Grass
4-2

Tennis Scores in Indian Wells

  • Asia Muhammad/Demi SchuursMuhammad/Demi SchuursKaterina Siniakova/Taylor TownsendSiniakova/Taylor Townsend (6-4 4-6 10-8) – Stats, scores, rankings
  • Tereza Mihalikova/Olivia NichollsMihalikova/Olivia NichollsSu-Wei Hsieh/Shuai ZhangHsieh/Shuai Zhang (7-5 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
  • Albert Alcaraz IvorraAlcaraz IvorraMatheus Pucinelle De AlmeidaPucinelle De Almeida (6-3 7-5) – Stats, scores, rankings
  • Giovanni FonioFonioThomas FancuttFancutt (6-4 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
See Updated Draw
Soccer Tonic Predictions
Bonus

Upcoming matches in the draw