Corentin Moutet and Alexander Bublik will clash against each other in the quarter of the Phoenix Challenger for the 3^rd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Friday at 1:30 pm on CENTER COURT. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Corentin Moutet who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Corentin Moutet is the pick to win this match.
Corentin Moutet -> 1.68
Alexander Bublik -> 2.08

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Prediction and head to head Corentin Moutet vs. Alexander Bublik

This will be the 3^rd time that Corentin Moutet and Alexander Bublik play each other. The head to head is 2-0 for Bublik (see full H2H stats), but they have never played each other on hard.

The last time that they played each other, Bublik won 7-5 6-4 in the 2^nd round in Florence back in 2022.

Corentin Moutet

Ranked no. 79, Corentin got to the quarter after defeating Nikoloz Basilashvili 6-3 6-2 and Pedro Martinez Portero 6-4 6-3.

In the 2^nd round, Moutet had a good straight sets win against Martinez Portero (6-4 6-3). During the match, Moutet scored 68 points vs Martinez Portero’s 56. Corentin was quite aggressive to blast 21 winners.

Talking about the service games, Moutet recorded 3 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Corentin Moutet lost the serve twice and he saved 3 break points. Furthermore, Moutet put 55% of his first serves in, winning 66% (21/32) of the points behind his 1st serve and 54% (14/26) on the 2nd serve. The French player broke Martinez Portero 5 times after converting 56% of his break points (5/9).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Moutet hasn’t surrendered yet a set in this event to conquer 56% of the points he played.

Moutet has good win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 59% of his matches (285-200). 5-2 on hard in 2025. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this competition, Moutet has an aggregate 58-47 win-loss record in the last years on hard.

The French player has a composed 6-5 win-loss record in 2025, 5-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in the Phoenix Challenger

The French player has never competed in this tournament before.

Alexander Bublik

Ranked no. 82, Alexander reached the quarter after defeating Aleksandar Vukic 6-3 3-6 6-3 and Rinky Hijikata 6-2 5-7 6-3.

In the 2^nd round, The Kazakhstani defeated Hijikata (6-2 5-7 6-3). During the match Bublik scored 94 points vs Hijikata’s 83. The Kazakhstani was extremely aggressive to blast 41 winners.

Talking about serving, Bublik recorded 19 aces and he committed only 6 double faults. Alexander Bublik lost the serve 3 times and he saved 4 break points. Furthermore, Bublik put 58% of his first serves in, winning 80% (41/51) of the points behind his 1st serve and 41% (15/37) on the 2nd serve. The Kazakhstani broke Hijikata 5 times after converting 71% of his break points (5/7).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Kazakhstani has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 54% of the points he played.

Bublik has a composed 4-8 win-loss record in 2025, 2-5 on hard (See FULL STATS).

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Moutet	Bublik
Match played	2	2
Tot Set	4	6
Tot Games	36	56
Pts	135-104	183-159
Total Points	239	342
Winners	43	89
%Winners	32%	49%

Both Moutet and Bublik played 2 matches. At the moment, Alexander Bublik surrendered 2 sets while Corentin Moutet hasn’t dropped a set so far. Moutet has played 2 set(s) less than Bublik (4 vs 6). Therefore, Moutet played 20 games less than Bublik. The French player scored 43 winners (32% of the total points). On the other side, The Kazakhstani scored 89 winners (49%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Moutet	Bublik
Aces	3	38
Avg per match	1.5	19
1st in	60/105	108/168
%1st in	57%	64%
1st pts	43/60	89/108
%1st pts	72%	82%
2nd pts	22/45	25/60
%2nd pts	49%	42%

Moutet fired 3 aces (1.5 per match). Bublik managed to score 38 aces (19 per match). Moutet won 72% points on his first serve. He extremely effective on his second serve to win 49% of the points. On the other side, Bublik won 82% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 42% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Moutet	Bublik
Won	11	7
Converted	11/19	7/13
% Converted	58%	54%
Conceded	10	9
Saved	6	5
% Saved	60%	56%
Times Broken	4	4

Corentin broke his opponents 11 times with a 58% conversion rate. Moutet conceded his serve 4 times and he saved 60% of the break points that he conceded. Bublik broke his opponents 7 times with a 54% conversion rate. Alexander conceded his serve 4 times and he saved 56% of the break points that he conceded.

Moutet
	R1 Basilashvili	R2 Martinez Portero	Total
Score	6-3 6-2	6-4 6-3
Tot Set	2	2	4
Tot Games	17	19	36
pts	67-48	68-56	135-104
Total points	115	124	239
Winners	22	21	43
%Winners	33%	31%	32%
SERVE
Aces	0	3	3
Double Faults	1	2	3
1st in	28/47	32/58	60/105
% 1st in	60%	55%	57%
1st pts	22/28	21/32	43/60
% 1st pts	79%	66%	72%
2nd pts	8/19	14/26	22/45
% 2nd pts	42%	54%	49%
Breaks
Won	6	5	11
Converted	6/10	5/9	11/19
Converted %	60%	56%	58%
Conceded	5	5	10
Saved	3/5	3/5	6
Saved %	60%	60%	60%
Times Broken	2	2	4

Bublik
	R1 Vukic	R2 Hijikata	Total
Score	6-3 3-6 6-3	6-2 5-7 6-3
Tot Set	3	3	6
Tot Games	27	29	56
pts	89-76	94-83	183-159
Total points	165	177	342
Winners	48	41	89
%Winners	54%	44%	49%
SERVE
Aces	19	19	38
Double Faults	3	6	9
1st in	57/80	51/88	108/168
% 1st in	71%	58%	64%
1st pts	48/57	41/51	89/108
% 1st pts	84%	80%	82%
2nd pts	10/23	15/37	25/60
% 2nd pts	43%	41%	42%
Breaks
Won	2	5	7
Converted	2/6	5/7	7/13
Converted %	33%	71%	54%
Conceded	2	7	9
Saved	1/2	4/7	5
Saved %	50%	57%	54%
Times Broken	1	3	4

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Kei NishikoriNishikori – Flavio CobolliCobolli (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Nuno BorgesBorges – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Corentin MoutetMoutet – Alexander BublikBublik (0-2) – H2H and prediction
• Hugo GastonGaston – (0-0) – H2H and prediction