Carlos Alcaraz and Francisco Cerundolo will clash against each other in the quarter of the BNP Paribas Open for the 3^rd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Thursday at 7:00 pm on STADIUM 1. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Carlos Alcaraz who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Carlos Alcaraz is the pick to win this match.
Carlos Alcaraz -> 1.194
Francisco Cerundolo -> 4.65

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Prediction and head to head Carlos Alcaraz vs. Francisco Cerundolo

This will be the 3^rd time that Carlos Alcaraz and Francisco Cerundolo fight against each other. The head to head is 1-1 for Alcaraz and Cerundolo (see full H2H stats), but they have never competed against each other on hard.

The last time that they locked horns, Alcaraz won 6-1 7-5 in the 1^st round in London back in 2024.

Highlights Carlos Alcaraz vs Francisco Cerundolo – London 18-June-2024

Carlos Alcaraz

Ranked no. 3, Alcaraz reached the quarter after beating Unknown Player bye, Quentin Halys 6-4 6-2, Denis Shapovalov 6-2 6-4 and Grigor Dimitrov 6-1 6-1.

In the 4^th round, Carlos had a good straight sets win against Dimitrov (6-1 6-1). During the match, Alcaraz scored 65 points vs Dimitrov’s 38. Alcaraz was quite aggressive to blast 23 winners.

Talking about the service games, Alcaraz bagged 6 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Carlos Alcaraz was exceptionally efficient on serve to win 77% (23/30) of his 1st serve and 70% (7/10) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. The Spaniard broke Dimitrov 5 times after converting 36% of his break points (5/14).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Alcaraz hasn’t dropped yet a set in this competition to conquer 58% of the points he played.

Alcaraz has a fantastic win-loss record in the last 8 years having won 79% of his matches (301-80). 9-2 on hard in 2025. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this event, Alcaraz has an overall106-29 match record in the last 8 years on hard.

His best result of the season was winning the title in Rotterdam where he defeated Alex De Minaur in the final 6-4 3-6 6-2.

Alcaraz has an aggregate 14-2 win-loss record in 2025, 9-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Indian Wells

Francisco Cerundolo

Ranked no. 26, Francisco reached the quarter after defeating Unknown Player bye, Mackenzie Mcdonald 4-6 7-6(3) 6-1, Botic Van De Zandschulp 6-3 6-4 and Alex De Minaur 7-5 6-3.

In the 4^th round, Cerundolo had a good straight sets win against De Minaur (7-5 6-3). During the match Cerundolo scored 81 points vs De Minaur’s 64. Francisco was extremely aggressive to blast 27 winners.

Talking about serving, Cerundolo made 2 aces and he committed only 5 double faults. Francisco Cerundolo lost the serve 3 times and he saved 11 break points. Furthermore, Cerundolo put 58% of his first serves in, winning 60% (27/45) of the points behind his 1st serve and 55% (18/33) on the 2nd serve. Francisco broke De Minaur 6 times after converting 86% of his break points (6/7).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Argentine has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 54% of the points he played.

The Argentine’s best result of the season was reaching the final in Buenos Aires.

Francisco has an aggregate 13-5 win-loss record in 2025, 5-2 on hard (See FULL STATS)

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Previously in Indian Wells

Previously, his best result was reaching the 3^rd round in 2023 and 2024. See his history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Alcaraz	Cerundolo
Match played	3	3
Tot Set	6	7
Tot Games	50	70
Pts	186-136	256-218
Total Points	322	474
Winners	74	83
%Winners	40%	32%

Both Alcaraz and Cerundolo played 3 matches. At the moment, Francisco Cerundolo lost 1 set while Carlos Alcaraz hasn’t surrendered a set so far. Alcaraz has played 1 set(s) less than Cerundolo (6 vs 7). Therefore, Alcaraz played 20 games less than Cerundolo. Carlos scored 74 winners (40% of the total points). On the other side, Cerundolo struck 83 winners (32%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Alcaraz	Cerundolo
Aces	15	8
Avg per match	5	2.7
1st in	96/151	132/229
%1st in	64%	58%
1st pts	74/96	83/132
%1st pts	77%	63%
2nd pts	34/55	58/97
%2nd pts	62%	60%

Alcaraz bagged 15 aces (5 per match). Cerundolo scored 8 aces (2.7 per match). Alcaraz won 77% points on his first serve. He extremely effective on his second serve to win 62% of the points. On the other side, Cerundolo won 63% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 60% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Alcaraz	Cerundolo
Won	12	14
Converted	12/27	14/23
% Converted	44%	61%
Conceded	8	23
Saved	7	16
% Saved	88%	70%
Times Broken	1	7

Carlos broke his opponents 12 times with a 44% conversion rate. Carlos surrendered his serve once and he saved 88% of the break points that he conceded. Cerundolo broke his opponents 14 times with a 61% conversion rate. Cerundolo conceded his serve 7 times and he saved 70% of the break points that he conceded.

Alcaraz
	R2 Halys	R3 Shapovalov	R4 Dimitrov	Total
Score	6-4 6-2	6-2 6-4	6-1 6-1
Tot Set	2	2	2	6
Tot Games	18	18	14	50
pts	54-43	67-55	65-38	186-136
Total points	97	122	103	322
Winners	20	31	23	74
%Winners	37%	46%	35%	40%
SERVE
Aces	7	2	6	15
Double Faults	3	5	2	10
1st in	21/48	45/63	30/40	96/151
% 1st in	44%	71%	75%	64%
1st pts	20/21	31/45	23/30	74/96
% 1st pts	95%	69%	77%	77%
2nd pts	17/27	10/18	7/10	34/55
% 2nd pts	63%	56%	70%	62%
Breaks
Won	3	4	5	12
Converted	3/5	4/8	5/14	12/27
Converted %	60%	50%	36%	44%
Conceded	1	4	3	8
Saved	1/1	3/4	3/3	7
Saved %	100%	75%	100%	92%
Times Broken	0	1	0	1

Cerundolo
	R2 Mcdonald	R3 Van De Zandschulp	R4 De Minaur	Total
Score	4-6 7-63 6-1	6-3 6-4	7-5 6-3
Tot Set	3	2	2	7
Tot Games	30	19	21	70
pts	106-95	69-59	81-64	256-218
Total points	201	128	145	474
Winners	31	25	27	83
%Winners	29%	36%	33%	32%
SERVE
Aces	4	2	2	8
Double Faults	3	2	5	10
1st in	49/80	38/71	45/78	132/229
% 1st in	61%	54%	58%	58%
1st pts	31/49	25/38	27/45	83/132
% 1st pts	63%	66%	60%	63%
2nd pts	20/31	20/33	18/33	58/97
% 2nd pts	65%	61%	55%	60%
Breaks
Won	5	3	6	14
Converted	5/12	3/4	6/7	14/23
Converted %	42%	75%	86%	61%
Conceded	4	5	14	23
Saved	1/4	4/5	11/14	16
Saved %	25%	80%	79%	61%
Times Broken	3	1	3	7

Tennis Scores in Indian Wells

• Marcelo Arevalo/Mate PavicArevalo/Mate Pavic – Matteo Berrettini/Lorenzo SonegoBerrettini/Lorenzo Sonego (7-6⁶ 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Christian Harrison/Evan KingHarrison/Evan King – Maximo Gonzalez/Andres MolteniGonzalez/Andres Molteni (7-6⁴ 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Fernando Romboli/John-Patrick SmithRomboli/John-Patrick Smith – Yuki Bhambri/Andre GoranssonBhambri/Andre Goransson (7-6⁵ 3-6 10-8) – Stats, scores, rankings

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Tallon GriekspoorGriekspoor – Holger Vitus Nodskov RuneVitus Nodskov Rune (2-0) – H2H and prediction
• Francisco CerundoloCerundolo – Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia (1-1) – H2H and prediction