Daniil Medvedev and Arthur Fils will face off in the quarter of the BNP Paribas Open for the 2^nd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Thursday at 1:00 pm on STADIUM 1. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Daniil Medvedev who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Daniil Medvedev is the pick to win this match.
Daniil Medvedev -> 1.34
Arthur Fils -> 3.26

Click here to see the updated quotes and live streaming (only selected countries - USA excluded).

To be able to watch live streaming bet365, a funded account is required or you need to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. 18+ BeGambleAware.

Here where top tennis events are broadcasted or streamed online (ATP, WTA).

At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.

 

Prediction and head to head Daniil Medvedev vs. Arthur Fils

This will be the 2^nd time that Daniil Medvedev and Arthur Fils fight against each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Medvedev (see full H2H stats), but they have never competed against each other on hard.

The last time that they played each other, Medvedev won 6-4 6-2 in the 1^st round in Vienna back in 2023.

Highlights Daniil Medvedev vs Arthur Fils – Vienna 25-October-2023

Daniil Medvedev

Ranked no. 6, Medvedev reached the quarter after beating Unknown Player bye, Bu Yunchaokete 6-2 6-2, Alex Michelsen 2-0 ret. and Tommy Paul 6-4 6-0.

In the 4^th round, Medvedev had a good straight sets win against Paul (6-4 6-0). During the match, Medvedev scored 62 points vs Paul’s 44. Daniil was extremely aggressive to blast 22 winners.

Talking about the service games, Medvedev blasted 8 aces and he committed only 4 double faults. Daniil Medvedev lost the serve twice and he saved 3 break points. Furthermore, Medvedev put 61% of his first serves in, winning 71% (22/31) of the points behind his 1st serve and 45% (9/20) on the 2nd serve. Medvedev broke Paul 6 times after converting 75% of his break points (6/8).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Daniil hasn’t surrendered yet a set in this event to win 58% of the points he played.

Medvedev has an impressive match record in the last 10 years having won 71% of his matches (468-187). 8-3 on hard in 2025. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this competition, Medvedev has an aggregate 231-71 match record in the last years on hard.

The Russian’s best result of the current year was getting to the semifinal in Marseille.

Medvedev has a composed 11-5 win-loss record in 2025, 8-3 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Indian Wells

Arthur Fils

Ranked no. 21, Fils reached the quarter after defeating Unknown Player bye, Gabriel Diallo 6-2 6-2, Lorenzo Musetti 3-6 7-6(4) 6-3 and Marcos Giron 6-2 2-6 6-3.

In the 4^th round, The French player defeated Giron (6-2 2-6 6-3). During the match Fils scored 90 points vs Giron’s 79. Arthur was extremely aggressive to blast 32 winners.

About the serving games, Fils recorded 4 aces and he was quite consistent in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Arthur Fils lost the serve twice and he saved 4 break points. Furthermore, Fils put 63% of his first serves in, winning 63% (32/51) of the points behind his 1st serve and 70% (21/30) on the 2nd serve. The French player broke Giron 3 times after converting 60% of his break points (3/5).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The French player has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 54% of the points he played.

Arthur has an overall 8-4 win-loss record in 2025, 6-3 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Indian Wells

Previously, his best result was reaching the 3^rd round in 2024. See his history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Medvedev	Fils
Match played	3	3
Tot Set	6	8
Tot Games	34	72
Pts	136-96	247-207
Total Points	232	454
Winners	44	98
%Winners	32%	40%

Both Medvedev and Fils played 3 matches. At the moment, Arthur Fils conceded 2 sets while Daniil Medvedev hasn’t surrendered a set so far. Medvedev has played 2 set(s) less than Fils (6 vs 8). Therefore, Medvedev played 38 games less than Fils. Daniil scored 44 winners (32% of the total points). On the other side, The French player made 98 winners (40%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Medvedev	Fils
Aces	12	10
Avg per match	4	3.3
1st in	56/108	141/221
%1st in	52%	64%
1st pts	44/56	98/141
%1st pts	79%	70%
2nd pts	24/52	48/80
%2nd pts	46%	60%

Medvedev fired 12 aces (4 per match). Fils struck 10 aces (3.3 per match). Medvedev won 79% points on his first serve. He was rock solid on his second serve to win 46% of the points. On the other side, Fils won 70% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 60% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Medvedev	Fils
Won	12	11
Converted	12/23	11/19
% Converted	52%	58%
Conceded	7	14
Saved	4	7
% Saved	57%	50%
Times Broken	3	7

Medvedev broke his opponents 12 times with a 52% conversion rate. Medvedev dropped his serve 3 times and he saved 57% of the break points that he conceded. The French player broke his opponents 11 times with a 58% conversion rate. The French player conceded his serve 7 times and he saved 50% of the break points that he conceded.

Medvedev
	R2 Yunchaokete	R3 Michelsen	R4 Paul	Total
Score	6-2 6-2	2-0 ret.	6-4 6-0
Tot Set	2	1	2	5
Tot Games	16	2	16	34
pts	65-49	9-3	62-44	136-96
Total points	114	12	106	232
Winners	19	3	22	44
%Winners	29%	33%	35%	32%
SERVE
Aces	3	1	8	12
Double Faults	1	0	4	5
1st in	21/52	4/5	31/51	56/108
% 1st in	40%	80%	61%	52%
1st pts	19/21	3/4	22/31	44/56
% 1st pts	90%	75%	71%	79%
2nd pts	14/31	1/1	9/20	24/52
% 2nd pts	45%	100%	45%	46%
Breaks
Won	5	1	6	12
Converted	5/14	1/1	6/8	12/23
Converted %	36%	100%	75%	52%
Conceded	2	0	5	7
Saved	1/2	0/0	3/5	4
Saved %	50%	–	60%	37%
Times Broken	1	0	2	3

Fils
	R2 Diallo	R3 Musetti	R4 Giron	Total
Score	6-2 6-2	3-6 7-64 6-3	6-2 2-6 6-3
Tot Set	2	3	3	8
Tot Games	16	31	25	72
pts	60-32	97-96	90-79	247-207
Total points	92	193	169	454
Winners	22	44	32	98
%Winners	37%	45%	36%	40%
SERVE
Aces	0	6	4	10
Double Faults	0	3	0	3
1st in	25/37	65/103	51/81	141/221
% 1st in	68%	63%	63%	64%
1st pts	22/25	44/65	32/51	98/141
% 1st pts	88%	68%	63%	70%
2nd pts	7/12	20/38	21/30	48/80
% 2nd pts	58%	53%	70%	60%
Breaks
Won	5	3	3	11
Converted	5/8	3/6	3/5	11/19
Converted %	63%	50%	60%	58%
Conceded	1	7	6	14
Saved	0/1	3/7	4/6	7
Saved %	0%	43%	67%	37%
Times Broken	1	4	2	7

Tennis Scores in Indian Wells

• Fernando Romboli/John-Patrick SmithRomboli/John-Patrick Smith – Yuki Bhambri/Andre GoranssonBhambri/Andre Goransson (7-6⁵ 3-6 10-8) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Marcelo Arevalo/Mate PavicArevalo/Mate Pavic – Matteo Berrettini/Lorenzo SonegoBerrettini/Lorenzo Sonego (7-6⁶ 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Christian Harrison/Evan KingHarrison/Evan King – Maximo Gonzalez/Andres MolteniGonzalez/Andres Molteni (7-6⁴ 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Tallon GriekspoorGriekspoor – Holger Vitus Nodskov RuneVitus Nodskov Rune (2-0) – H2H and prediction
• Francisco CerundoloCerundolo – Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia (1-1) – H2H and prediction