Madison Keys and Donna Vekic will face off in the 4^th round of the BNP Paribas Open for the 4^th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Wednesday at 1:00 pm on STADIUM 1. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Madison Keys who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Madison Keys is the pick to win this match.
Madison Keys -> 1.4
Donna Vekic -> 2.95

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Prediction and head to head Madison Keys vs. Donna Vekic

This will be the 4^th time that Madison Keys and Donna Vekic square off. The head to head is 2-1 for Keys (see full H2H stats), but Vekic has a winning record of 1-0 on hard.

The last time that they played each other, Vekic won 3-6 7-6(5) 7-6(5) in the 1^st round in Toronto back in 2019.

Madison Keys

Ranked no. 5 (career-high), the American reached the 4^th round after beating Unknown Player bye, Anastasia Potapova 6-3 6-0 and Elise Mertens 6-2 6-7(8) 6-4.

In the 3^rd round, The American defeated Mertens (6-2 6-7⁸ 6-4). During the match, Keys scored 128 points vs Mertens’s 123. The American was very aggressive to blast 57 winners.

Talking about the service games, Keys struck 5 aces and she was not very solid on her 2nd serve to score 12 double faults. Madison Keys lost the serve 3 times and she saved 12 break points. Furthermore, Keys put 59% of her first serves in, winning 75% (57/76) of the points behind her 1st serve and 33% (17/52) on the 2nd serve. Keys broke Mertens 6 times after converting 38% of her break points (6/16).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Madison has dropped 1 set in this tournament to win 55% of the points she played.

Keys has a solid win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 66% of her matches (243-124). 16-1 on hard in 2025. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this event, Keys has an overall 149-74 win-loss record in the last years on hard.

Her best result of the season was winning the title in Adelaide where she defeated Jessica Pegula in the final 6-3 4-6 6-1 and at the Australian Open where she beat Aryna Sabalenka in the final 6-3 2-6 7-5.

The American has a composed 16-1 win-loss record in 2025, 16-1 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Indian Wells

Donna Vekic

Ranked no. 22, Vekic reached the 4^th round after defeating Unknown Player bye, Elina Avanesyan 6-3 6-3 and Emma Navarro 7-6(5) 6-1.

In the 3^rd round, Donna had a good straight sets win against Navarro (7-6⁵ 6-1). During the match Vekic scored 70 points vs Navarro’s 60. Vekic was extremely aggressive to blast 24 winners.

Talking about serving, Vekic scored just 1 ace during the entire match and she committed only 2 double faults. Donna Vekic lost the serve 5 times and she saved 3 break points. Furthermore, Vekic put 59% of her first serves in, winning 59% (24/41) of the points behind her 1st serve and 38% (11/29) on the 2nd serve. Vekic broke Navarro 7 times after converting 78% of her break points (7/9).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Donna hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 57% of the points she played.

The Croatian has a compiled 5-7 win-loss record in 2025, 5-7 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Indian Wells

Previously, her best result was reaching the 2^nd round in 2014, 2015, 2017, 2019, 2023 and 2024. See her history

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H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Keys	Vekic
Match played	2	2
Tot Set	5	4
Tot Games	46	38
Pts	191-158	138-104
Total Points	349	242
Winners	74	44
%Winners	39%	32%

Both Keys and Vekic played 2 matches. At the moment, Madison Keys surrendered 1 set while Donna Vekic hasn’t surrendered a set so far. Keys has played 1 set more than Vekic (5 vs 4). Therefore, Keys played 8 games more than Vekic. Keys scored 74 winners (39% of the total points). On the other side, Donna recorded 44 winners (32%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Keys	Vekic
Aces	5	2
Avg per match	2.5	1
1st in	98/172	69/134
%1st in	57%	51%
1st pts	74/98	44/69
%1st pts	76%	64%
2nd pts	31/74	27/65
%2nd pts	42%	42%

Keys blasted 5 aces (2.5 per match). Vekic recorded 2 aces (1 per match). Keys won 76% points behind her first serve. She was rock solid on her second serve to win 42% of the points. On the other side, Vekic won 64% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 42% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Keys	Vekic
Won	12	13
Converted	12/25	13/20
% Converted	48%	65%
Conceded	21	16
Saved	17	8
% Saved	81%	50%
Times Broken	4	8

Madison broke her opponents 12 times with a 48% conversion rate. Keys surrendered her serve 4 times and she saved 81% of the break points that she conceded. Vekic broke her opponents 13 times with a 65% conversion rate. The Croatian conceded her serve 8 times and she saved 50% of the break points that she conceded.

Keys
	R2 Potapova	R3 Mertens	Total
Score	6-3 6-0	6-2 6-78 6-4
Tot Set	2	3	5
Tot Games	15	31	46
pts	63-35	128-123	191-158
Total points	98	251	349
Winners	17	57	74
%Winners	27%	45%	39%
SERVE
Aces	0	5	5
Double Faults	4	12	16
1st in	22/44	76/128	98/172
% 1st in	50%	59%	57%
1st pts	17/22	57/76	74/98
% 1st pts	77%	75%	76%
2nd pts	14/22	17/52	31/74
% 2nd pts	64%	33%	42%
Breaks
Won	6	6	12
Converted	6/9	6/16	12/25
Converted %	67%	38%	48%
Conceded	6	15	21
Saved	5/6	12/15	17
Saved %	83%	80%	82%
Times Broken	1	3	4

Vekic
	R2 Avanesyan	R3 Navarro	Total
Score	6-3 6-3	7-65 6-1
Tot Set	2	2	4
Tot Games	18	20	38
pts	68-44	70-60	138-104
Total points	112	130	242
Winners	20	24	44
%Winners	29%	34%	32%
SERVE
Aces	1	1	2
Double Faults	8	2	10
1st in	28/64	41/70	69/134
% 1st in	44%	59%	51%
1st pts	20/28	24/41	44/69
% 1st pts	71%	59%	64%
2nd pts	16/36	11/29	27/65
% 2nd pts	44%	38%	42%
Breaks
Won	6	7	13
Converted	6/11	7/9	13/20
Converted %	55%	78%	65%
Conceded	8	8	16
Saved	5/8	3/8	8
Saved %	63%	38%	51%
Times Broken	3	5	8

Tennis Scores in Indian Wells

• Mirra AndreevaAndreeva – Elena RybakinaRybakina (6-1 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Elina SvitolinaSvitolina – Jessica PegulaPegula (5-7 6-1 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Karolina MuchovaMuchova (6-1 6-1) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Qinwen ZhengZheng – Marta KostyukKostyuk (6-3 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Ludmilla SamsonovaSamsonova – Jasmine PaoliniPaolini (2-0) – H2H and prediction
• Cori GauffGauff – Belinda BencicBencic (2-1) – H2H and prediction
• Donna VekicVekic – Madison KeysKeys (1-2) – H2H and prediction
• Qinwen ZhengZheng – Iga SwiatekSwiatek (1-6) – H2H and prediction