Carlos Alcaraz and Grigor Dimitrov will square off in the 4th round of the BNP Paribas Open for the 6th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Wednesday at 6:00 pm on STADIUM 1. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Carlos Alcaraz who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Carlos Alcaraz is the pick to win this match.
Carlos Alcaraz -> 1.25
Grigor Dimitrov -> 3.94
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Prediction and head to head Carlos Alcaraz vs. Grigor Dimitrov
This will be the 6th time that Carlos Alcaraz and Grigor Dimitrov play each other. The head to head is 3-2 for Alcaraz (see full H2H stats), but Dimitrov has a winning record of 2-0 on hard.
The last time that they locked horns, Dimitrov won 6-2 6-4 in the quarter in Miami back in 2024.
Highlights Grigor Dimitrov vs Carlos Alcaraz – Miami 28-March-2024
Carlos Alcaraz
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 13-2 | 8-2 | 0-0 | 5-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 54-15 | 22-7 | 17-4 | 7-3 | 8-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 65-12 | 26-6 | 25-3 | 2-3 | 12-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 57-13 | 21-4 | 27-4 | 6-4 | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 48-19 | 15-8 | 22-7 | 10-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 3, Alcaraz reached the 4th round after beating Unknown Player bye, Quentin Halys 6-4 6-2 and Denis Shapovalov 6-2 6-4.
In the 3rd round, Carlos had a good straight sets win against Shapovalov (6-2 6-4). During the match, Alcaraz scored 67 points vs Shapovalov’s 55. The Spaniard was exceptionally aggressive to blast 31 winners.
Talking about the service games, Alcaraz blasted 2 aces and he committed only 5 double faults. Carlos Alcaraz lost the serve once and he saved 3 break points. Furthermore, Alcaraz put 71% of his first serves in, winning 69% (31/45) of the points behind his 1st serve and 56% (10/18) on the 2nd serve. The Spaniard broke Shapovalov 4 times after converting 50% of his break points (4/8).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Spaniard hasn’t dropped yet a set in this competition to conquer 55% of the points he played.
Alcaraz has a fantastic record in the last 8 years having won 79% of his matches (300-80). 8-2 on hard in 2025. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this event, Alcaraz has an overall105-29 record in the last 8 years on hard.
His best result of the current year was winning the title in Rotterdam where he defeated Alex De Minaur in the final 6-4 3-6 6-2.
Alcaraz has an aggregate 13-2 win-loss record in 2025, 8-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Indian Wells
Grigor Dimitrov
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 5-4 | 5-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 46-18 | 21-7 | 8-4 | 13-5 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 43-21 | 16-10 | 10-5 | 10-4 | 7-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 26-22 | 10-11 | 10-5 | 5-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 24-18 | 18-10 | 3-5 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 15, the Bulgarian got to the 4th round after beating Unknown Player bye, Nuno Borges 6-3 6-4 and Gael Monfils 7-6(4) 4-6 7-6(2).
In the 3rd round, The Bulgarian defeated Monfils (7-64 4-6 7-62). During the match Dimitrov and Monfils scored the same amount of points (119). However, the world no. 3 was stronger during the important points and that was the most significant difference in the match. The Bulgarian was pretty aggressive to blast 44 winners.
About the serving games, Dimitrov recorded 3 aces and he committed only 7 double faults. Grigor Dimitrov lost the serve 3 times and he saved 6 break points. Furthermore, Dimitrov put 56% of his first serves in, winning 68% (44/65) of the points behind his 1st serve and 65% (33/51) on the 2nd serve. The Bulgarian broke Monfils twice after converting 18% of his break points (2/11).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Grigor has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 52% of the points he played.
Grigor’s best result of the year was getting to the semifinal in Brisbane.
Dimitrov has a composed 5-4 win-loss record in 2025, 5-4 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Indian Wells
Previously, his best result was reaching the semifinal in 2021. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Alcaraz | Dimitrov |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 2 |
| Tot Set | 4 | 5 |
| Tot Games | 36 | 55 |
| Pts | 121-98 | 194-180 |
| Total Points | 219 | 374 |
| Winners | 51 | 80 |
| %Winners | 42% | 41% |
Both Alcaraz and Dimitrov played 2 matches. At the moment, Grigor Dimitrov lost 1 set while Carlos Alcaraz hasn’t dropped a set so far. Alcaraz has played 1 set(s) less than Dimitrov (4 vs 5). Therefore, Alcaraz played 19 games less than Dimitrov. The Spaniard scored 51 winners (42% of the total points). On the other side, The Bulgarian struck 80 winners (41%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Alcaraz | Dimitrov |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 9 | 9 |
| Avg per match | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| 1st in | 66/111 | 111/192 |
| %1st in | 59% | 58% |
| 1st pts | 51/66 | 80/111 |
| %1st pts | 77% | 72% |
| 2nd pts | 27/45 | 47/81 |
| %2nd pts | 60% | 58% |
Alcaraz managed to score 9 aces (4.5 per match). Dimitrov made 9 aces (4.5 per match). Alcaraz won 77% points behind his first serve. He quite strong on his second serve to win 60% of the points. On the other side, Dimitrov won 72% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 58% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Alcaraz | Dimitrov |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 7 | 5 |
| Converted | 7/13 | 5/19 |
| % Converted | 54% | 26% |
| Conceded | 5 | 17 |
| Saved | 4 | 13 |
| % Saved | 80% | 76% |
| Times Broken | 1 | 4 |
Alcaraz broke his opponents 7 times with a 54% conversion rate. Carlos conceded his serve once and he saved 80% of the break points that he conceded. Dimitrov broke his opponents 5 times with a 26% conversion rate. Dimitrov conceded his serve 4 times and he saved 76% of the break points that he conceded.
| Alcaraz | ||||
| R2 Halys |
R3 Shapovalov |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-2 | 6-2 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Tot Games | 18 | 18 | 36 | |
| pts | 54-43 | 67-55 | 121-98 | |
| Total points | 97 | 122 | 219 | |
| Winners | 20 | 31 | 51 | |
| %Winners | 37% | 46% | 42% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 7 | 2 | 9 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 5 | 8 | |
| 1st in | 21/48 | 45/63 | 66/111 | |
| % 1st in | 44% | 71% | 59% | |
| 1st pts | 20/21 | 31/45 | 51/66 | |
| % 1st pts | 95% | 69% | 77% | |
| 2nd pts | 17/27 | 10/18 | 27/45 | |
| % 2nd pts | 63% | 56% | 60% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 3 | 4 | 7 | |
| Converted | 3/5 | 4/8 | 7/13 | |
| Converted % | 60% | 50% | 54% | |
| Conceded | 1 | 4 | 5 | |
| Saved | 1/1 | 3/4 | 4 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 75% | 88% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Dimitrov | ||||
| R2 Borges |
R3 Monfils |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-4 | 7-64 4-6 7-62 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 5 | |
| Tot Games | 19 | 36 | 55 | |
| pts | 75-61 | 119-119 | 194-180 | |
| Total points | 136 | 238 | 374 | |
| Winners | 36 | 44 | 80 | |
| %Winners | 48% | 37% | 41% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 6 | 3 | 9 | |
| Double Faults | 5 | 7 | 12 | |
| 1st in | 46/76 | 65/116 | 111/192 | |
| % 1st in | 61% | 56% | 58% | |
| 1st pts | 36/46 | 44/65 | 80/111 | |
| % 1st pts | 78% | 68% | 72% | |
| 2nd pts | 14/30 | 33/51 | 47/81 | |
| % 2nd pts | 47% | 65% | 58% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 3 | 2 | 5 | |
| Converted | 3/8 | 2/11 | 5/19 | |
| Converted % | 38% | 18% | 26% | |
| Conceded | 8 | 9 | 17 | |
| Saved | 7/8 | 6/9 | 13 | |
| Saved % | 88% | 67% | 78% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 3 | 4 | |
Head 2 Head
WWLWWWWWWW
WWLLLLWWW Tennis Scores in Indian Wells
- Tallon GriekspoorGriekspoor – Yosuke WatanukiWatanuki (7-64 6-1) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Tommy PaulPaul (6-4 6-0) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Holger RuneRune – Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas (6-4 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Arthur FilsFils – Marcos GironGiron (6-2 2-6 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Grigor DimitrovDimitrov – Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia (2-3) – H2H and prediction
- Tallon GriekspoorGriekspoor – Holger Vitus Nodskov RuneVitus Nodskov Rune (2-0) – H2H and prediction
- Francisco CerundoloCerundolo – Alex De MinaurDe Minaur (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Brandon NakashimaNakashima – (0-3) – H2H and prediction
- Jack DraperDraper – Taylor Harry FritzHarry Fritz (2-2) – H2H and prediction
