Alex De Minaur and Francisco Cerundolo will face off in the 4^th round of the BNP Paribas Open for the 2^nd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Wednesday at 1:00 pm on STADIUM 2. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Alex De Minaur who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Alex De Minaur is the pick to win this match.
Alex De Minaur -> 1.26
Francisco Cerundolo -> 3.85

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Prediction and head to head Alex De Minaur vs. Francisco Cerundolo

This will be the 2^nd time that Alex De Minaur and Francisco Cerundolo play each other. The head to head is 1-0 for De Minaur (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.

The last time that they locked horns, De Minaur won 5-7 7-6(3) 6-3 6-3 in the 3^rd round in at the Australian Open back in January 2025.

Highlights Alex De Minaur vs Francisco Cerundolo – Australian Open 18-January-2025

Alex De Minaur

Ranked no. 10, De Minaur reached the 4^th round after beating Unknown Player bye, David Goffin 6-2 6-2 and Hubert Hurkacz 6-4 6-0.

In the 3^rd round, Alex had a good straight sets win against Hurkacz (6-4 6-0). During the match, De Minaur scored 57 points vs Hurkacz’s 35. Alex was exceptionally aggressive to blast 16 winners.

Talking about the service games, De Minaur struck 2 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Alex De Minaur was pretty efficient on serve to win 80% (16/20) of his 1st serve and 66% (19/29) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. De Minaur was clinical in his return game without wasting any break point and break Hurkacz 4 times.

Overall Performance in this tournament

Alex hasn’t conceded yet a set in this competition to conquer 61% of the points he played.

De Minaur has a solid record in the last 10 years having won 64% of his matches (374-209). 10-3 on hard in 2025. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this event, De Minaur has a compiled 181-89 match record in the last years on hard.

The Australian’s best result of the year was reaching the final in Rotterdam.

De Minaur has an aggregate 15-4 win-loss record in 2025, 10-3 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Indian Wells

Francisco Cerundolo

Ranked no. 26, the Argentine got to the 4^th round after beating Unknown Player bye, Mackenzie Mcdonald 4-6 7-6(3) 6-1 and Botic Van De Zandschulp 6-3 6-4.

In the 3^rd round, The Argentine had a good straight sets win against Van De Zandschulp (6-3 6-4). During the match Cerundolo scored 69 points vs Van De Zandschulp’s 59. Cerundolo was pretty aggressive to blast 25 winners.

Talking about serving, Cerundolo scored 2 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Francisco Cerundolo lost the serve once and he saved 4 break points. Furthermore, Cerundolo put 54% of his first serves in, winning 66% (25/38) of the points behind his 1st serve and 61% (20/33) on the 2nd serve. Francisco broke Van De Zandschulp 3 times after converting 75% of his break points (3/4).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Francisco has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points he played.

Francisco’s best result of the current year was reaching the final in Buenos Aires.

Cerundolo has an overall 12-5 win-loss record in 2025, 4-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Indian Wells

Previously, his best result was reaching the 3^rd round in 2023 and 2024. See his history

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H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	De Minaur	Cerundolo
Match played	2	2
Tot Set	4	5
Tot Games	32	49
Pts	117-74	175-154
Total Points	191	329
Winners	39	56
%Winners	33%	32%

Both De Minaur and Cerundolo played 2 matches. At the moment, Francisco Cerundolo lost 1 set while Alex De Minaur hasn’t dropped a set so far. De Minaur has played 1 set(s) less than Cerundolo (4 vs 5). Therefore, De Minaur played 17 games less than Cerundolo. De Minaur scored 39 winners (33% of the total points). On the other side, Cerundolo scored 56 winners (32%).

Serve Performance

Serve	De Minaur	Cerundolo
Aces	4	6
Avg per match	2	3
1st in	45/92	87/151
%1st in	49%	58%
1st pts	39/45	56/87
%1st pts	87%	64%
2nd pts	29/47	40/64
%2nd pts	62%	63%

De Minaur fired 4 aces (2 per match). Cerundolo recorded 6 aces (3 per match). De Minaur won 87% points on his first serve. He pretty effective on his second serve to win 62% of the points. On the other side, Cerundolo won 64% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 63% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	De Minaur	Cerundolo
Won	8	8
Converted	8/15	8/16
% Converted	53%	50%
Conceded	4	9
Saved	4	5
% Saved	100%	56%
Times Broken	0	4

De Minaur broke his opponents 8 times with a 53% conversion rate. Alex pretty effective on his serve as he has never surrendered a single service game after saving 4 break points. Cerundolo broke his opponents 8 times with a 50% conversion rate. Francisco conceded his serve 4 times and he saved 56% of the break points that he conceded.

De Minaur
	R2 Goffin	R3 Hurkacz	Total
Score	6-2 6-2	6-4 6-0
Tot Set	2	2	4
Tot Games	16	16	32
pts	60-39	57-35	117-74
Total points	99	92	191
Winners	23	16	39
%Winners	38%	28%	33%
SERVE
Aces	2	2	4
Double Faults	4	3	7
1st in	25/43	20/49	45/92
% 1st in	58%	41%	49%
1st pts	23/25	16/20	39/45
% 1st pts	92%	80%	87%
2nd pts	10/18	19/29	29/47
% 2nd pts	56%	66%	62%
Breaks
Won	4	4	8
Converted	4/11	4/4	8/15
Converted %	36%	100%	53%
Conceded	3	1	4
Saved	3/3	1/1	4
Saved %	100%	100%	100%
Times Broken	0	0	0

Cerundolo
	R2 Mcdonald	R3 Van De Zandschulp	Total
Score	4-6 7-63 6-1	6-3 6-4
Tot Set	3	2	5
Tot Games	30	19	49
pts	106-95	69-59	175-154
Total points	201	128	329
Winners	31	25	56
%Winners	29%	36%	32%
SERVE
Aces	4	2	6
Double Faults	3	2	5
1st in	49/80	38/71	87/151
% 1st in	61%	54%	58%
1st pts	31/49	25/38	56/87
% 1st pts	63%	66%	64%
2nd pts	20/31	20/33	40/64
% 2nd pts	65%	61%	63%
Breaks
Won	5	3	8
Converted	5/12	3/4	8/16
Converted %	42%	75%	50%
Conceded	4	5	9
Saved	1/4	4/5	5
Saved %	25%	80%	53%
Times Broken	3	1	4

Tennis Scores in Indian Wells

• Arthur FilsFils – Marcos GironGiron (6-2 2-6 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Tallon GriekspoorGriekspoor – Yosuke WatanukiWatanuki (7-6⁴ 6-1) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Tommy PaulPaul (6-4 6-0) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Holger RuneRune – Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas (6-4 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Grigor DimitrovDimitrov – Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia (2-3) – H2H and prediction
• Tallon GriekspoorGriekspoor – Holger Vitus Nodskov RuneVitus Nodskov Rune (2-0) – H2H and prediction
• Francisco CerundoloCerundolo – Alex De MinaurDe Minaur (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Brandon NakashimaNakashima – (0-3) – H2H and prediction
• Jack DraperDraper – Taylor Harry FritzHarry Fritz (2-2) – H2H and prediction