Iga Swiatek and Karolina Muchova will fight against each other in the 4th round of the BNP Paribas Open for the 5th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Tuesday at 11:00 am on STADIUM 1. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Iga Swiatek who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Iga Swiatek is the pick to win this match.
Iga Swiatek -> 1.193
Karolina Muchova -> 4.65

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Prediction and head to head Iga Swiatek vs. Karolina Muchova

This will be the 5th time that Iga Swiatek and Karolina Muchova play each other. The head to head is 3-1 for Swiatek (see full H2H stats), 2-0 on hard.

The last time that they competed against each other, Swiatek won 6-3 6-4 in the R in Australia back in January 2025.

Highlights Iga Swiatek vs Karolina Muchova – Australia 01-January-2025

Iga Swiatek

Iga Swiatek

17 - 4win/loss

Hard
17-4
I Hard
0-0
Rank
2
High
1
WWLLWLWWLW
See allSTATS
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 64-17 40-10 11-4 3-2 10-1 0-0
2024 64-9 29-5 26-2 7-1 2-1 0-0
2023 68-11 42-8 19-2 0-0 7-1 0-0
2022 67-9 42-6 18-1 5-1 2-1 0-0
2021 36-15 18-10 12-2 2-1 4-2 0-0
See all years

Ranked no. 2, Iga reached the 4th round after beating Unknown Player bye, Caroline Garcia 6-2 6-0

and Dayana Yastremska 6-0 6-2.

In the 3rd round, Swiatek had a good straight sets win against Yastremska (6-0 6-2). During the match, Swiatek scored 58 points vs Yastremska’s 34. The Pole was quite aggressive to blast 16 winners.

Regarding the service games, Swiatek scored just 1 ace during the match and she committed only 1 double fault. Iga Swiatek was pretty effective on serve to win 80% (16/20) of her 1st serve and 64% (14/22) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Iga broke Yastremska 5 times after converting 45% of her break points (5/11).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Pole hasn’t surrendered yet a set in this tournament to win 64% of the points she played.

Swiatek has a good win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 82% of her matches (365-80). 16-4 on hard in 2025. Regarding her performance on the same surface of this competition, Swiatek has an aggregate 178-46 win-loss record in the last years on hard.

Swiatek’s best result of the year was getting to the final in Australia.

The Pole has an overall 16-4 win-loss record in 2025, 16-4 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Indian Wells

Indian Wells
Swiatek's Record

Karolina Muchova

Karolina Muchova

11 - 6win/loss

Hard
9-5
I Hard
2-1
Rank
19
High
8
LWWLWLWLWW
See allSTATS
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 26-17 23-13 0-1 2-1 1-2 0-0
2024 21-7 15-4 4-2 0-0 2-1 0-0
2023 38-13 28-9 10-3 0-0 0-1 0-0
2022 11-12 3-2 3-3 5-5 0-2 0-0
2021 19-9 10-4 5-3 0-0 4-2 0-0
See all years

Ranked no. 15, the Czech got to the 4th round after beating Unknown Player bye, Elisabetta Cocciaretto 6-4 6-3 and Katerina Siniakova 7-5 6-1.

In the 3rd round, The Czech had a good straight sets win against Siniakova (7-5 6-1). During the match Muchova scored 72 points vs Siniakova’s 53. The Czech was very aggressive to blast 23 winners.

About the serving games, Muchova recorded 4 aces and she committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Karolina Muchova lost the serve 3 times and she saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Muchova put 52% of her first serves in, winning 68% (23/34) of the points behind her 1st serve and 48% (15/31) on the 2nd serve. Karolina broke Siniakova 6 times after converting 60% of her break points (6/10).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Karolina hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 56% of the points she played.

Muchova’s best result of the season was reaching the semifinal in Australia, Linz and Dubai.

Muchova has a compiled 11-5 win-loss record in 2025, 9-4 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Indian Wells

Previously, her best result was reaching the quarter in 2023. See her history

.
Indian Wells
Muchova's Record

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

I.Swiatek
K.Muchova
2h:07
2h:07
Time on court​
3h:01
3h:01
1h:06
1h:06
Last match​
1h:36
1h:36
2
2
Match played
2
2
28
28
Games Played​
38
38
4
4
Set played​​
4
4
115
115
Total points​
136
136
57.5
57.5
Avg point​
68
68
35
35
Winners
49
49
17.5
17.5
Avg Winners​
24.5
24.5
30%
30%
Ratio winners
36%
36%
-- Serve --
4
4
Aces
8
8
2
2
Avg Aces
4
4
4
4
Double Faults
3
3
2
2
Avg Double Faults
1.5
1.5
35/48
35/48
1st won total​
49/74
49/74
!
73%
73%
1st won %
66%
66%
23/38
23/38
2nd won total​
28/56
28/56
!
61%
61%
2nd won %
50%
50%
-- Break Points --
11/20
11/20
BP won
11/22
11/22
5.5/10
5.5/10
Avg BP won
5.5/11
5.5/11
!
55%
55%
Won
50%
50%
4
4
Conceded
14
14
2
2
Avg Conceded
7
7
1
1
Broken
6
6
!
0.5
0.5
Avg Broken
3
3
3
3
Saved
8
8
See Allstats

Matches, sets, games and points

Points Swiatek Muchova
Match played 2 2
Tot Set 4 4
Tot Games 28 38
Pts 115-65 136-107
Total Points 180 243
Winners 35 49
%Winners 30% 36%

Both Swiatek and Muchova played 2 matches. Both players have not conceded a single set in this event so far. Talking about their workload, Swiatek and Muchova have played the same amount of sets 4. However, Swiatek played 10 games less than Muchova. Iga scored 35 winners (30% of the total points). On the other side, The Czech recorded 49 winners (36%).

Serve Performance

Serve Swiatek Muchova
Aces 4 8
Avg per match 2 4
1st in 48/86 74/130
%1st in 56% 57%
1st pts 35/48 49/74
%1st pts 73% 66%
2nd pts 23/38 28/56
%2nd pts 61% 50%

Swiatek scored 4 aces (2 per match). Muchova managed to score 8 aces (4 per match). Swiatek won 73% points behind her first serve. She pretty solid on her second serve to win 61% of the points. On the other side, Muchova won 66% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 50% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks Swiatek Muchova
Won 11 11
Converted 11/20 11/22
% Converted 55% 50%
Conceded 4 14
Saved 3 8
% Saved 75% 57%
Times Broken 1 6

Iga broke her opponents 11 times with a 55% conversion rate. Iga surrendered her serve once and she saved 75% of the break points that she conceded. Muchova broke her opponents 11 times with a 50% conversion rate. The Czech conceded her serve 6 times and she saved 57% of the break points that she conceded.

Swiatek
R2
Garcia		 R3
Yastremska		 Total
Score 6-2 6-0 6-0 6-2
Tot Set 2 2 4
Tot Games 14 14 28
pts 57-31 58-34 115-65
Total points 88 92 180
Winners 19 16 35
%Winners 33% 28% 30%
SERVE
Aces 3 1 4
Double Faults 3 1 4
1st in 28/44 20/42 48/86
% 1st in 64% 48% 56%
1st pts 19/28 16/20 35/48
% 1st pts 68% 80% 73%
2nd pts 9/16 14/22 23/38
% 2nd pts 56% 64% 61%
Breaks
Won 6 5 11
Converted 6/9 5/11 11/20
Converted % 67% 45% 55%
Conceded 4 0 4
Saved 3/4 0/0 3
Saved % 75% – 38%
Times Broken 1 0 1
Muchova
R2
Cocciaretto		 R3
Siniakova		 Total
Score 6-4 6-3 7-5 6-1
Tot Set 2 2 4
Tot Games 19 19 38
pts 64-54 72-53 136-107
Total points 118 125 243
Winners 26 23 49
%Winners 41% 32% 36%
SERVE
Aces 4 4 8
Double Faults 2 1 3
1st in 40/65 34/65 74/130
% 1st in 62% 52% 57%
1st pts 26/40 23/34 49/74
% 1st pts 65% 68% 66%
2nd pts 13/25 15/31 28/56
% 2nd pts 52% 48% 50%
Breaks
Won 5 6 11
Converted 5/12 6/10 11/22
Converted % 42% 60% 50%
Conceded 9 5 14
Saved 6/9 2/5 8
Saved % 67% 40% 54%
Times Broken 3 3 6

Tennis Scores in Indian Wells

Upcoming matches in the draw

Swiatek
More Stats
Click here
Muchova

Click for FULL STATS