Jessica Pegula and Elina Svitolina will face off in the 4th round of the BNP Paribas Open for the 8th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Tuesday at 1:00 pm on STADIUM 2. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Jessica Pegula who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Jessica Pegula is the pick to win this match.
Jessica Pegula -> 1.57
Elina Svitolina -> 2.4

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Prediction and head to head Jessica Pegula vs. Elina Svitolina

This will be the 8th time that Jessica Pegula and Elina Svitolina square off. The head to head is 5-2 for Pegula (see full H2H stats), 5-1 on hard.

The last time that they played, Pegula won 6-3 7-6(3) in the 2nd round in Doha back in February 2025.

Highlights Jessica Pegula vs Elina Svitolina – Doha 11-February-2025

Jessica Pegula

Jessica Pegula

15 - 5win/loss

Hard
15-5
I Hard
0-0
Rank
4
High
3
LWWWWWWWLW
See allSTATS
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 15-5 15-5 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
2024 39-16 29-9 4-2 0-2 6-3 0-0
2023 59-18 45-12 8-4 0-0 6-2 0-0
2022 42-21 28-15 11-4 1-1 2-1 0-0
2021 39-19 29-12 6-4 0-0 4-3 0-0
See all years

Ranked no. 4, Jessica reached the 4th round after beating Unknown Player bye, Magda Linette 6-4 6-2 and Xinyu Wang 6-2 6-1.

In the 3rd round, The American had a good straight sets win against Wang (6-2 6-1). During the match, Pegula scored 60 points vs Wang’s 37. Jessica was very aggressive to blast 29 winners.

Talking about the service games, Pegula bagged 2 aces and she committed only 2 double faults. Jessica Pegula lost the serve once and she saved 3 break points. Furthermore, Pegula put 78% of her first serves in, winning 67% (29/43) of the points behind her 1st serve and 50% (6/12) on the 2nd serve. Jessica broke Wang 5 times after converting 71% of her break points (5/7).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The American hasn’t conceded yet a set in this competition to conquer 59% of the points she played.

Pegula has a solid win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 66% of her matches (319-161). 15-4 on hard in 2025. Regarding her performance on the same surface of this competition, Pegula has a compiled 219-94 match record in the last years on hard.

Her best result of the current year was winning the title in Austin where she overcame Mccartney Kessler in the final 7-5 6-2.

Jessica has a composed 15-4 win-loss record in 2025, 15-4 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Indian Wells

Indian Wells
Pegula's Record

Elina Svitolina

Elina Svitolina

9 - 4win/loss

Hard
9-3
I Hard
0-1
Rank
23
High
3
LWWWLWLWLL
See allSTATS
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 9-5 9-4 0-0 0-1 0-0 0-0
2024 30-18 16-9 10-7 0-0 4-2 0-0
2023 21-12 4-3 12-7 0-0 5-2 0-0
2022 5-8 5-8 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
2021 41-20 31-13 8-4 0-0 2-3 0-0
See all years

Ranked no. 23, Svitolina got to the 4th round after defeating Unknown Player bye, Ashlyn Krueger 6-1 6-7(8) 6-3 and Danielle Rose Collins 6-2 6-4.

In the 3rd round, The Ukrainian had a good straight sets win against Collins (6-2 6-4). During the match Svitolina scored 64 points vs Collins’s 52. Svitolina was exceptionally aggressive to blast 26 winners.

Talking about serving, Svitolina made 4 aces and she committed only 8 double faults. Elina Svitolina lost the serve once and she saved 4 break points. Furthermore, Svitolina put 46% of her first serves in, winning 79% (26/33) of the points behind her 1st serve and 45% (17/38) on the 2nd serve. The Ukrainian was clinical in her return game without wasting any break point and break Collins 4 times.

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Ukrainian has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 54% of the points she played.

Elina has a compiled 8-4 win-loss record in 2025, 8-3 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Indian Wells

Previously, her best result was reaching the semifinal in 2019. See her history.

Indian Wells
Svitolina's Record

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

J.Pegula
E.Svitolina
2h:17
2h:17
Time on court​
!
3h:31
3h:31
1h:02
1h:02
Last match​
1h:20
1h:20
2
2
Match played
2
2
33
33
Games Played​
47
47
4
4
Set played​​
5
5
123
123
Total points​
176
176
61.5
61.5
Avg point​
88
88
54
54
Winners
61
61
27
27
Avg Winners​
30.5
30.5
44%
44%
Ratio winners
35%
35%
-- Serve --
4
4
Aces
7
7
2
2
Avg Aces
3.5
3.5
2
2
Double Faults
16
16
1
1
Avg Double Faults
!
8
8
54/80
54/80
1st won total​
61/87
61/87
68%
68%
1st won %
70%
70%
17/31
17/31
2nd won total​
36/78
36/78
55%
55%
2nd won %
46%
46%
-- Break Points --
10/19
10/19
BP won
13/20
13/20
5/9.5
5/9.5
Avg BP won
6.5/10
6.5/10
!
53%
53%
Won
!
65%
65%
10
10
Conceded
13
13
5
5
Avg Conceded
6.5
6.5
3
3
Broken
5
5
1.5
1.5
Avg Broken
2.5
2.5
7
7
Saved
8
8
See Allstats

Matches, sets, games and points

Points Pegula Svitolina
Match played 2 2
Tot Set 4 5
Tot Games 33 47
Pts 123-84 176-147
Total Points 207 323
Winners 54 61
%Winners 44% 35%

Both Pegula and Svitolina played 2 matches. At the moment, Elina Svitolina lost 1 set while Jessica Pegula hasn’t dropped a set so far. Pegula has played 1 set(s) less than Svitolina (4 vs 5). Therefore, Pegula played 14 games less than Svitolina. The American scored 54 winners (44% of the total points). On the other side, Svitolina bagged 61 winners (35%).

Serve Performance

Serve Pegula Svitolina
Aces 4 7
Avg per match 2 3.5
1st in 80/111 87/165
%1st in 72% 53%
1st pts 54/80 61/87
%1st pts 68% 70%
2nd pts 17/31 36/78
%2nd pts 55% 46%

Pegula recorded 4 aces (2 per match). Svitolina made 7 aces (3.5 per match). Pegula won 68% points behind her first serve. She pretty effective on her second serve to win 55% of the points. On the other side, Svitolina won 70% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 46% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks Pegula Svitolina
Won 10 13
Converted 10/19 13/20
% Converted 53% 65%
Conceded 10 13
Saved 7 8
% Saved 70% 62%
Times Broken 3 5

Jessica broke her opponents 10 times with a 53% conversion rate. Pegula lost her serve 3 times and she saved 70% of the break points that she conceded. Elina broke her opponents 13 times with a 65% conversion rate. The Ukrainian conceded her serve 5 times and she saved 62% of the break points that she conceded.

Pegula
R2
Linette		 R3
Wang		 Total
Score 6-4 6-2 6-2 6-1
Tot Set 2 2 4
Tot Games 18 15 33
pts 63-47 60-37 123-84
Total points 110 97 207
Winners 25 29 54
%Winners 40% 48% 44%
SERVE
Aces 2 2 4
Double Faults 0 2 2
1st in 37/56 43/55 80/111
% 1st in 66% 78% 72%
1st pts 25/37 29/43 54/80
% 1st pts 68% 67% 68%
2nd pts 11/19 6/12 17/31
% 2nd pts 58% 50% 55%
Breaks
Won 5 5 10
Converted 5/12 5/7 10/19
Converted % 42% 71% 53%
Conceded 6 4 10
Saved 4/6 3/4 7
Saved % 67% 75% 71%
Times Broken 2 1 3
Svitolina
R2
Krueger		 R3
Collins		 Total
Score 6-1 6-78 6-3 6-2 6-4
Tot Set 3 2 5
Tot Games 29 18 47
pts 112-95 64-52 176-147
Total points 207 116 323
Winners 35 26 61
%Winners 31% 41% 35%
SERVE
Aces 3 4 7
Double Faults 8 8 16
1st in 54/94 33/71 87/165
% 1st in 57% 46% 53%
1st pts 35/54 26/33 61/87
% 1st pts 65% 79% 70%
2nd pts 19/40 17/38 36/78
% 2nd pts 48% 45% 46%
Breaks
Won 9 4 13
Converted 9/16 4/4 13/20
Converted % 56% 100% 65%
Conceded 8 5 13
Saved 4/8 4/5 8
Saved % 50% 80% 65%
Times Broken 4 1 5

Tennis Scores in Indian Wells

Upcoming matches in the draw

Pegula
More Stats
Click here
Svitolina

Click for FULL STATS