Elena Rybakina and Mirra Andreeva will square off in the 4th round of the BNP Paribas Open for the 3rd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Tuesday at 6:00 pm on STADIUM 2. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Elena Rybakina who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Elena Rybakina is the pick to win this match.
Elena Rybakina -> 1.87
Mirra Andreeva -> 1.93
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Prediction and head to head Elena Rybakina vs. Mirra Andreeva
This will be the 3rd time that Elena Rybakina and Mirra Andreeva face off. The head to head is 1-1 for Rybakina and Andreeva (see full H2H stats),but they are 1-1 on hard.
The last time that they competed against each other, Andreeva won 6-4 4-6 6-3 in the semifinal in Dubai back in February 2025.
Highlights Mirra Andreeva vs Elena Rybakina – Dubai 21-February-2025
Elena Rybakina
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 32-13 | 16-7 | 9-3 | 2-0 | 5-3 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 43-11 | 23-5 | 12-2 | 2-2 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 47-15 | 31-11 | 11-2 | 0-0 | 5-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 40-21 | 18-12 | 9-5 | 5-2 | 8-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 33-23 | 18-14 | 6-4 | 2-2 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 7, the Kazakhstani reached the 4th round after beating Unknown Player bye, Suzan Lamens 6-3 6-3 and Katie Boulter 6-0 7-5.
In the 3rd round, Rybakina had a good straight sets win against Boulter (6-0 7-5). During the match, Rybakina scored 64 points vs Boulter’s 44. Elena was exceptionally aggressive to blast 28 winners.
Talking about the service games, Rybakina recorded 6 aces and she committed only 2 double faults. Elena Rybakina lost the serve once. Furthermore, Rybakina put 67% of her first serves in, winning 85% (28/33) of the points behind her 1st serve and 50% (8/16) on the 2nd serve. Rybakina broke Boulter 5 times after converting 56% of her break points (5/9).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Elena hasn’t conceded yet a set in this event to win 58% of the points she played.
Rybakina has an extraordinary record in the last 10 years having won 70% of her matches (340-146). 15-5 on hard in 2025. Regarding her performance on the same surface of this event, Rybakina has an overall 164-75 match record in the last years on hard.
Elena’s best result of the current season was reaching the semifinal in Australia, Abu Dhabi and Dubai.
The Kazakhstani has a composed 15-5 win-loss record in 2025, 15-5 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Indian Wells
Mirra Andreeva
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 36-11 | 20-4 | 11-4 | 0-0 | 5-3 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 34-16 | 18-9 | 16-5 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 36-9 | 7-4 | 23-4 | 0-0 | 6-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 39-9 | 21-5 | 18-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 11, Andreeva reached the 4th round after defeating Unknown Player bye, Varvara Gracheva 7-5 6-4 and Clara Tauson 6-3 6-0.
In the 3rd round, The Russian had a good straight sets win against Tauson (6-3 6-0). During the match Andreeva scored 54 points vs Tauson’s 32. Andreeva was quite aggressive to blast 18 winners.
Talking about serving, Andreeva managed to score 3 aces and she committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Mirra Andreeva was pretty effective on serve to win 75% (18/24) of her 1st serve and 71% (10/14) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Mirra broke Tauson 5 times after converting 56% of her break points (5/9).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Andreeva hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 58% of the points she played.
Her best result of the year was winning the title in Dubai where she overcame Clara Tauson in the final 7-6(1) 6-1.
The Russian has an aggregate 15-3 win-loss record in 2025, 15-3 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Indian Wells
Previously, her best result was reaching the 1st round in 2024. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Rybakina | Andreeva |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 2 |
| Tot Set | 4 | 4 |
| Tot Games | 36 | 37 |
| Pts | 138-102 | 130-96 |
| Total Points | 240 | 226 |
| Winners | 61 | 43 |
| %Winners | 44% | 33% |
Both Rybakina and Andreeva played 2 matches. Both players have not surrendered a single set in this event so far. Talking about their workload, Rybakina and Andreeva have played the same amount of sets 4. However, Rybakina played 1 game less than Andreeva. The Kazakhstani scored 61 winners (44% of the total points). On the other side, Mirra recorded 43 winners (33%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Rybakina | Andreeva |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 11 | 5 |
| Avg per match | 5.5 | 2.5 |
| 1st in | 76/116 | 66/107 |
| %1st in | 66% | 62% |
| 1st pts | 61/76 | 43/66 |
| %1st pts | 80% | 65% |
| 2nd pts | 18/40 | 25/41 |
| %2nd pts | 45% | 61% |
Rybakina blasted 11 aces (5.5 per match). Andreeva fired 5 aces (2.5 per match). Rybakina won 80% points on her first serve. She quite strong on her second serve to win 45% of the points. On the other side, Andreeva won 65% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 61% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Rybakina | Andreeva |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 9 | 11 |
| Converted | 9/16 | 11/19 |
| % Converted | 56% | 58% |
| Conceded | 5 | 6 |
| Saved | 3 | 2 |
| % Saved | 60% | 33% |
| Times Broken | 2 | 4 |
Rybakina broke her opponents 9 times with a 56% conversion rate. Elena surrendered her serve twice and she saved 60% of the break points that she conceded. The Russian broke her opponents 11 times with a 58% conversion rate. Mirra conceded her serve 4 times and she saved 33% of the break points that she conceded.
| Rybakina | ||||
| R2 Lamens |
R3 Boulter |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-3 | 6-0 7-5 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Tot Games | 18 | 18 | 36 | |
| pts | 74-58 | 64-44 | 138-102 | |
| Total points | 132 | 108 | 240 | |
| Winners | 33 | 28 | 61 | |
| %Winners | 45% | 44% | 44% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 5 | 6 | 11 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 2 | 5 | |
| 1st in | 43/67 | 33/49 | 76/116 | |
| % 1st in | 64% | 67% | 66% | |
| 1st pts | 33/43 | 28/33 | 61/76 | |
| % 1st pts | 77% | 85% | 80% | |
| 2nd pts | 10/24 | 8/16 | 18/40 | |
| % 2nd pts | 42% | 50% | 45% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 4 | 5 | 9 | |
| Converted | 4/7 | 5/9 | 9/16 | |
| Converted % | 57% | 56% | 56% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 1 | 5 | |
| Saved | 3/4 | 0/1 | 3 | |
| Saved % | 75% | 0% | 38% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Andreeva | ||||
| R2 Gracheva |
R3 Tauson |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-5 6-4 | 6-3 6-0 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Tot Games | 22 | 15 | 37 | |
| pts | 76-64 | 54-32 | 130-96 | |
| Total points | 140 | 86 | 226 | |
| Winners | 25 | 18 | 43 | |
| %Winners | 33% | 33% | 33% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 2 | 3 | 5 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| 1st in | 42/69 | 24/38 | 66/107 | |
| % 1st in | 61% | 63% | 62% | |
| 1st pts | 25/42 | 18/24 | 43/66 | |
| % 1st pts | 60% | 75% | 65% | |
| 2nd pts | 15/27 | 10/14 | 25/41 | |
| % 2nd pts | 56% | 71% | 61% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 6 | 5 | 11 | |
| Converted | 6/10 | 5/9 | 11/19 | |
| Converted % | 60% | 56% | 58% | |
| Conceded | 6 | 0 | 6 | |
| Saved | 2/6 | 0/0 | 2 | |
| Saved % | 33% | – | 17% | |
| Times Broken | 4 | 0 | 4 | |
Head 2 Head
WLWWLWWLWL
LWWWWLWLLW Tennis Scores in Indian Wells
- Cori GauffGauff – Maria SakkariSakkari (7-61 6-2) – See score progression
- Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Lucia BronzettiBronzetti (6-1 6-2) – See score progression
- Belinda BencicBencic – Diana ShnaiderShnaider (6-4 6-4) – See score progression
- Madison KeysKeys – Elise MertensMertens (6-2 6-78 6-4) – See score progression
- Sonay KartalKartal – Polina KudermetovaKudermetova (7-5 6-3) – See score progression
- Marta KostyukKostyuk – Caroline DolehideDolehide (6-3 6-3) – See score progression
- Mirra AndreevaAndreeva – Clara TausonTauson (6-3 6-0) – See score progression
- Jessica PegulaPegula – Xinyu WangWang (6-2 6-1) – See score progression
- Karolina MuchovaMuchova – Katerina SiniakovaSiniakova (7-5 6-1) – See score progression
- Qinwen ZhengZheng – Lulu SunSun (6-4 7-5) – See score progression
- Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Dayana YastremskaYastremska (6-0 6-2) – See score progression
- Elena RybakinaRybakina – Katie BoulterBoulter (6-0 7-5) – See score progression
- Elina SvitolinaSvitolina – Danielle Rose CollinsRose Collins (6-2 6-4) – See score progression
- Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Lucia BronzettiBronzetti (6-1 6-2) – See score progression
- Sonay KartalKartal – Polina KudermetovaKudermetova (7-5 6-3) – See score progression
- Liudmila SamsonovaSamsonova – Daria KasatkinaKasatkina (2-6 6-3 6-2) – See score progression
- Cori GauffGauff – Maria SakkariSakkari (7-6(1) 6-2) – See score progression
- Belinda BencicBencic – Diana ShnaiderShnaider (6-4 6-4) – See score progression
- Madison KeysKeys – Elise MertensMertens (6-2 6-7(8) 6-4) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Jaqueline CristianCristian – Jasmine PaoliniPaolini (0-3) – H2H and prediction
- Emma NavarroNavarro – Donna VekicVekic (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Cori GauffGauff – Belinda BencicBencic (2-1) – H2H and prediction
- Elena RybakinaRybakina – (1-1) – H2H and prediction
- Elina SvitolinaSvitolina – Jessica PegulaPegula (2-5) – H2H and prediction
- Qinwen ZhengZheng – Marta KostyukKostyuk (1-1) – H2H and prediction
- Karolina MuchovaMuchova – Iga SwiatekSwiatek (1-3) – H2H and prediction
