Daniil Medvedev and Tommy Paul will square off in the 4^th round of the BNP Paribas Open for the 5^th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Tuesday at 6:00 pm on STADIUM 1. Here the head to head stats and relative prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Daniil Medvedev who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Daniil Medvedev is the pick to win this match.
Daniil Medvedev -> 1.65
Tommy Paul -> 2.24

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Prediction and head to head Daniil Medvedev vs. Tommy Paul

This will be the 5^th time that Daniil Medvedev and Tommy Paul clash against each other. The head to head is 3-1 for Medvedev (see full H2H stats), 2-0 on hard.

The last time that they played, Paul won 6-1 6-4 in the 4^th round in Rome back in 2024.

Highlights Tommy Paul vs Daniil Medvedev – Rome 14-May-2024

Daniil Medvedev

Ranked no. 6, Daniil got to the 4^th round after defeating Unknown Player bye, Bu Yunchaokete 6-2 6-2 and Alex Michelsen 2-0 ret..

In the 3^rd round against Michelsen, Daniil had a free pass after Michelsen retired on a 2-0 . scoreline.

Medvedev has a remarkable win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 71% of his matches (467-187). 7-3 on hard in 2025. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this event, Medvedev has a composed 230-71 record in the last years on hard.

Daniil’s best result of the year was getting to the semifinal in Marseille.

Medvedev has an aggregate 10-5 win-loss record in 2025, 7-3 on hard (See FULL STATS)

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Previously in Indian Wells

Tommy Paul

Ranked no. 11, the American got to the 4^th round after defeating Unknown Player bye, Tristan Boyer 6-3 6-1 and Cameron Norrie 6-3 7-5.

In the 3^rd round, The American had a good straight sets win against Norrie (6-3 7-5). During the match Paul scored 71 points vs Norrie’s 57. The American was pretty aggressive to blast 21 winners.

About the serving games, Paul fired 6 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Tommy Paul lost the serve 3 times. Furthermore, Paul put 52% of his first serves in, winning 70% (21/30) of the points behind his 1st serve and 50% (14/28) on the 2nd serve. Tommy broke Norrie 6 times after converting 50% of his break points (6/12).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The American hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 58% of the points he played.

Paul’s best result of the current year was getting to the semifinal in Adelaide and Dallas.

Paul has a composed 12-3 win-loss record in 2025, 9-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Indian Wells

Previously, his best result was reaching the semifinal in 2024. See his history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Medvedev	Paul
Match played	2	2
Tot Set	4	4
Tot Games	18	37
Pts	74-52	133-96
Total Points	126	229
Winners	22	37
%Winners	30%	28%

Both Medvedev and Paul played 2 matches. Both players have not dropped a single set in this event so far. Talking about their workload, Medvedev and Paul have played the same amount of sets 4. However, Medvedev played 19 games less than Paul. Daniil scored 22 winners (30% of the total points). On the other side, Tommy fired 37 winners (28%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Medvedev	Paul
Aces	4	10
Avg per match	2	5
1st in	25/57	52/99
%1st in	44%	53%
1st pts	22/25	37/52
%1st pts	88%	71%
2nd pts	15/32	28/47
%2nd pts	47%	60%

Medvedev bagged 4 aces (2 per match). Paul made 10 aces (5 per match). Medvedev won 88% points on his first serve. He extremely effective on his second serve to win 47% of the points. On the other side, Paul won 71% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 60% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Medvedev	Paul
Won	6	11
Converted	6/15	11/19
% Converted	40%	58%
Conceded	2	5
Saved	1	1
% Saved	50%	20%
Times Broken	1	4

The Russian broke his opponents 6 times with a 40% conversion rate. Daniil surrendered his serve once and he saved 50% of the break points that he conceded. Paul broke his opponents 11 times with a 58% conversion rate. Paul conceded his serve 4 times and he saved 20% of the break points that he conceded.

Medvedev
	R2 Yunchaokete	R3 Michelsen	Total
Score	6-2 6-2	2-0 ret.
Tot Set	2	1	3
Tot Games	16	2	18
pts	65-49	9-3	74-52
Total points	114	12	126
Winners	19	3	22
%Winners	29%	33%	30%
SERVE
Aces	3	1	4
Double Faults	1	0	1
1st in	21/52	4/5	25/57
% 1st in	40%	80%	44%
1st pts	19/21	3/4	22/25
% 1st pts	90%	75%	88%
2nd pts	14/31	1/1	15/32
% 2nd pts	45%	100%	47%
Breaks
Won	5	1	6
Converted	5/14	1/1	6/15
Converted %	36%	100%	40%
Conceded	2	0	2
Saved	1/2	0/0	1
Saved %	50%	–	25%
Times Broken	1	0	1

Paul
	R2 Boyer	R3 Norrie	Total
Score	6-3 6-1	6-3 7-5
Tot Set	2	2	4
Tot Games	16	21	37
pts	62-39	71-57	133-96
Total points	101	128	229
Winners	16	21	37
%Winners	26%	30%	28%
SERVE
Aces	4	6	10
Double Faults	1	3	4
1st in	22/41	30/58	52/99
% 1st in	54%	52%	53%
1st pts	16/22	21/30	37/52
% 1st pts	73%	70%	71%
2nd pts	14/19	14/28	28/47
% 2nd pts	74%	50%	60%
Breaks
Won	5	6	11
Converted	5/7	6/12	11/19
Converted %	71%	50%	58%
Conceded	2	3	5
Saved	1/2	0/3	1
Saved %	50%	0%	25%
Times Broken	1	3	4

Tennis Scores in Indian Wells

• Taylor FritzFritz – Alejandro TabiloTabilo (4-6 6-3 6-1) – See score progression
• Jack DraperDraper – Jenson BrooksbyBrooksby (7-5 6-4) – See score progression
• Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – Hubert HurkaczHurkacz (6-4 6-0) – See score progression
• Francisco CerundoloCerundolo – Botic Van De ZandschulpVan De Zandschulp (6-3 6-4) – See score progression
• Brandon NakashimaNakashima – Matteo ArnaldiArnaldi (6-2 6-4) – See score progression
• Arthur FilsFils – Lorenzo MusettiMusetti (3-6 7-6⁴ 6-3) – See score progression
• Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Alex MichelsenMichelsen (2-0 ret.) – See score progression
• Marcos GironGiron – Alexei PopyrinPopyrin (5-7 6-3 6-3) – See score progression
• Holger RuneRune – Ugo HumbertHumbert (5-7 6-4 7-5) – See score progression
• Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas – Matteo BerrettiniBerrettini (6-3 6-3) – See score progression
• Yosuke WatanukiWatanuki – Frances TiafoeTiafoe (6-4 7-6⁶) – See score progression
• Tallon GriekspoorGriekspoor – Giovanni Mpetshi PerricardMpetshi Perricard (7-6³ 6-3) – See score progression
• Tommy PaulPaul – Cameron NorrieNorrie (6-3 7-5) – See score progression
• Brandon NakashimaNakashima – Matteo ArnaldiArnaldi (6-2 6-4) – See score progression
• Ben SheltonShelton – Karen KhachanovKhachanov (6-3 7-5) – See score progression
• Jack DraperDraper – Jenson BrooksbyBrooksby (7-5 6-4) – See score progression
• Taylor Harry FritzHarry Fritz – Alejandro TabiloTabilo (4-6 6-3 6-1) – See score progression
• Francisco CerundoloCerundolo – Botic Van De ZandschulpVan De Zandschulp (6-3 6-4) – See score progression
• Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – Hubert HurkaczHurkacz (6-4 6-0) – See score progression

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Grigor DimitrovDimitrov – Gael MonfilsMonfils (2-4) – H2H and prediction
• Marcos GironGiron – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Karen KhachanovKhachanov – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Tommy PaulPaul – Daniil MedvedevMedvedev (1-3) – H2H and prediction
• Denis ShapovalovShapovalov – Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Tallon GriekspoorGriekspoor – Yosuke WatanukiWatanuki (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Francisco CerundoloCerundolo – Alex De MinaurDe Minaur (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Jack DraperDraper – Taylor Harry FritzHarry Fritz (2-2) – H2H and prediction
• Holger Vitus Nodskov RuneVitus Nodskov Rune – Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas (3-0) – H2H and prediction