Stefanos Tsitsipas and Holger Rune will face off in the 4th round of the BNP Paribas Open for the 4th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Tuesday at 1:00 pm on STADIUM 1. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Stefanos Tsitsipas who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Stefanos Tsitsipas is the pick to win this match.
Stefanos Tsitsipas -> 1.63
Holger Rune -> 2.28
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Prediction and head to head Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Holger Rune
This will be the 4th time that Stefanos Tsitsipas and Holger Rune fight against each other. The head to head is 3-0 for Rune (see full H2H stats), but they have never played each other on hard.
The last time that they fought against each other, Rune won 2-1 ret. in the R in Nitto atp finals back in 2023.
Stefanos Tsitsipas
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 17-10 | 9-5 | 6-4 | 2-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 45-22 | 13-11 | 22-6 | 8-3 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 51-24 | 19-9 | 17-5 | 11-6 | 4-4 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 61-24 | 18-8 | 17-4 | 18-9 | 8-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 55-19 | 26-8 | 23-5 | 6-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 9, Tsitsipas got to the 4th round after beating Unknown Player bye, Thiago Seyboth Wild 6-2 6-4 and Matteo Berrettini 6-3 6-3.
In the 3rd round, Stefanos had a good straight sets win against Berrettini (6-3 6-3). During the match, Tsitsipas scored 58 points vs Berrettini’s 38. The Greek was quite aggressive to blast 24 winners.
Talking about the service games, Tsitsipas was unable to score even 1 ace for the entire match and he committed only 2 double faults. Stefanos Tsitsipas was very effective on serve to win 92% (24/26) of his 1st serve and 67% (12/18) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Tsitsipas broke Berrettini 3 times after converting 50% of his break points (3/6).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Stefanos hasn’t conceded yet a set in this competition to win 58% of the points he played.
Tsitsipas has a solid match record in the last 10 years having won 69% of his matches (467-211). 8-3 on hard in 2025. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this competition, Tsitsipas has an aggregate 166-85 record in the last years on hard.
His best result of the current year was winning the title in Dubai where he defeated Felix Auger-Aliassime in the final 6-3 6-3.
Tsitsipas has an overall 10-4 win-loss record in 2025, 8-3 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Indian Wells
Holger Rune
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 17-11 | 9-5 | 6-4 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 45-24 | 21-12 | 11-6 | 10-4 | 3-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 44-24 | 10-10 | 16-4 | 11-8 | 7-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 50-27 | 8-9 | 21-11 | 21-4 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 73-29 | 11-5 | 41-17 | 21-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 13, Holger got to the 4th round after defeating Unknown Player bye, Corentin Moutet 6-2 6-4 and Ugo Humbert 5-7 6-4 7-5.
In the 3rd round against Humbert, Holger recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (5-7 6-4 7-5). During the match Rune scored 111 points vs Humbert’s 103. The Dane was pretty aggressive to blast 42 winners.
About the serving games, Rune recorded 6 aces and he committed only 9 double faults. Overall, Holger Rune was pretty effective on serve to win 75% (42/56) of his 1st serve and 52% (28/54) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve 3 times. The Dane broke Humbert 4 times after converting 40% of his break points (4/10).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Holger has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 54% of the points he played.
The Dane has an aggregate 8-6 win-loss record in 2025, 6-3 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Indian Wells
Previously, his best result was reaching the quarter in 2024. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Tsitsipas | Rune |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 2 |
| Tot Set | 4 | 5 |
| Tot Games | 36 | 52 |
| Pts | 126-90 | 176-151 |
| Total Points | 216 | 327 |
| Winners | 50 | 66 |
| %Winners | 40% | 38% |
Both Tsitsipas and Rune played 2 matches. At the moment, Holger Rune dropped 1 set while Stefanos Tsitsipas hasn’t lost a set so far. Tsitsipas has played 1 set(s) less than Rune (4 vs 5). Therefore, Tsitsipas played 16 games less than Rune. Stefanos scored 50 winners (40% of the total points). On the other side, The Dane scored 66 winners (38%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Tsitsipas | Rune |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 4 | 8 |
| Avg per match | 2 | 4 |
| 1st in | 60/93 | 90/160 |
| %1st in | 65% | 56% |
| 1st pts | 50/60 | 66/90 |
| %1st pts | 83% | 73% |
| 2nd pts | 24/33 | 37/70 |
| %2nd pts | 73% | 53% |
Tsitsipas fired 4 aces (2 per match). Rune managed to score 8 aces (4 per match). Tsitsipas won 83% points behind his first serve. He pretty effective on his second serve to win 73% of the points. On the other side, Rune won 73% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 53% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Tsitsipas | Rune |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 6 | 9 |
| Converted | 6/14 | 9/21 |
| % Converted | 43% | 43% |
| Conceded | 2 | 15 |
| Saved | 2 | 10 |
| % Saved | 100% | 67% |
| Times Broken | 0 | 5 |
Stefanos broke his opponents 6 times with a 43% conversion rate. Stefanos very solid his serve as he has never surrendered a single service game after saving 2 break points. Holger broke his opponents 9 times with a 43% conversion rate. Holger conceded his serve 5 times and he saved 67% of the break points that he conceded.
| Tsitsipas | ||||
| R2 Seyboth |
R3 Berrettini |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 6-4 | 6-3 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Tot Games | 18 | 18 | 36 | |
| pts | 68-52 | 58-38 | 126-90 | |
| Total points | 120 | 96 | 216 | |
| Winners | 26 | 24 | 50 | |
| %Winners | 38% | 41% | 40% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 4 | 0 | 4 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| 1st in | 34/49 | 26/44 | 60/93 | |
| % 1st in | 69% | 59% | 65% | |
| 1st pts | 26/34 | 24/26 | 50/60 | |
| % 1st pts | 76% | 92% | 83% | |
| 2nd pts | 12/15 | 12/18 | 24/33 | |
| % 2nd pts | 80% | 67% | 73% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 3 | 3 | 6 | |
| Converted | 3/8 | 3/6 | 6/14 | |
| Converted % | 38% | 50% | 43% | |
| Conceded | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Saved | 2/2 | 0/0 | 2 | |
| Saved % | 100% | – | 50% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rune | ||||
| R2 Moutet |
R3 Humbert |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 6-4 | 5-7 6-4 7-5 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 5 | |
| Tot Games | 18 | 34 | 52 | |
| pts | 65-48 | 111-103 | 176-151 | |
| Total points | 113 | 214 | 327 | |
| Winners | 24 | 42 | 66 | |
| %Winners | 37% | 38% | 38% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 2 | 6 | 8 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 9 | 10 | |
| 1st in | 34/50 | 56/110 | 90/160 | |
| % 1st in | 68% | 51% | 56% | |
| 1st pts | 24/34 | 42/56 | 66/90 | |
| % 1st pts | 71% | 75% | 73% | |
| 2nd pts | 9/16 | 28/54 | 37/70 | |
| % 2nd pts | 56% | 52% | 53% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 5 | 4 | 9 | |
| Converted | 5/11 | 4/10 | 9/21 | |
| Converted % | 45% | 40% | 43% | |
| Conceded | 5 | 10 | 15 | |
| Saved | 3/5 | 7/10 | 10 | |
| Saved % | 60% | 70% | 65% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 3 | 5 | |
Head 2 Head
LWLWLWWLWW
LWLWWWWWLL Tennis Scores in Indian Wells
- Taylor FritzFritz – Alejandro TabiloTabilo (4-6 6-3 6-1) – See score progression
- Jack DraperDraper – Jenson BrooksbyBrooksby (7-5 6-4) – See score progression
- Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – Hubert HurkaczHurkacz (6-4 6-0) – See score progression
- Francisco CerundoloCerundolo – Botic Van De ZandschulpVan De Zandschulp (6-3 6-4) – See score progression
- Brandon NakashimaNakashima – Matteo ArnaldiArnaldi (6-2 6-4) – See score progression
- Arthur FilsFils – Lorenzo MusettiMusetti (3-6 7-64 6-3) – See score progression
- Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Alex MichelsenMichelsen (2-0 ret.) – See score progression
- Marcos GironGiron – Alexei PopyrinPopyrin (5-7 6-3 6-3) – See score progression
- Holger RuneRune – Ugo HumbertHumbert (5-7 6-4 7-5) – See score progression
- Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas – Matteo BerrettiniBerrettini (6-3 6-3) – See score progression
- Yosuke WatanukiWatanuki – Frances TiafoeTiafoe (6-4 7-66) – See score progression
- Tallon GriekspoorGriekspoor – Giovanni Mpetshi PerricardMpetshi Perricard (7-63 6-3) – See score progression
- Tommy PaulPaul – Cameron NorrieNorrie (6-3 7-5) – See score progression
- Brandon NakashimaNakashima – Matteo ArnaldiArnaldi (6-2 6-4) – See score progression
- Ben SheltonShelton – Karen KhachanovKhachanov (6-3 7-5) – See score progression
- Jack DraperDraper – Jenson BrooksbyBrooksby (7-5 6-4) – See score progression
- Taylor Harry FritzHarry Fritz – Alejandro TabiloTabilo (4-6 6-3 6-1) – See score progression
- Francisco CerundoloCerundolo – Botic Van De ZandschulpVan De Zandschulp (6-3 6-4) – See score progression
- Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – Hubert HurkaczHurkacz (6-4 6-0) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Grigor DimitrovDimitrov – Gael MonfilsMonfils (2-4) – H2H and prediction
- Marcos GironGiron – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Karen KhachanovKhachanov – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Tommy PaulPaul – Daniil MedvedevMedvedev (1-3) – H2H and prediction
- Denis ShapovalovShapovalov – Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Tallon GriekspoorGriekspoor – Yosuke WatanukiWatanuki (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Francisco CerundoloCerundolo – Alex De MinaurDe Minaur (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Jack DraperDraper – Taylor Harry FritzHarry Fritz (2-2) – H2H and prediction
- Holger Vitus Nodskov RuneVitus Nodskov Rune – Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas (3-0) – H2H and prediction
