
Madison Keys and Elise Mertens will fight against each other in the 3rd round of the BNP Paribas Open for the 6th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Monday at 11:00 am on STADIUM 2. Here the head to head stats and relative prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Madison Keys who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Madison Keys is the pick to win this match.
Madison Keys -> 1.42
Elise Mertens -> 2.86
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Prediction and head to head Madison Keys vs. Elise Mertens
This will be the 6th time that Madison Keys and Elise Mertens face off. The head to head is 3-2 for Keys (see full H2H stats),but they are 2-2 on hard.
The last time that they competed against each other, Mertens won 6-7(5) 7-5 6-4 in the 3rd round in at the U.S. Open back in 2024.
Highlights Elise Mertens vs Madison Keys – U.S. Open 30-August-2024
Madison Keys
Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 | 32-9 | 19-3 | 9-4 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
2024 | 24-12 | 7-6 | 13-4 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
2023 | 33-15 | 19-9 | 5-3 | 0-2 | 9-1 | 0-0 |
2022 | 30-20 | 25-12 | 4-4 | 0-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
2021 | 11-15 | 3-9 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 5-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 5 (career-high), the American got to the 3rd round after beating Unknown Player bye and Anastasia Potapova 6-3 6-0.
In the 2nd round, Keys had a good straight sets win against Potapova (6-3 6-0). During the match, Keys scored 63 points vs Potapova’s 35. Madison was very aggressive to blast 17 winners.
Talking about the service games, Keys was unable to score even 1 ace during the match and she committed only 4 double faults. Overall, Madison Keys was exceptionally effective on serve to win 77% (17/22) of her 1st serve and 64% (14/22) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent her to concede the serve once. Keys broke Potapova 6 times after converting 67% of her break points (6/9).
Keys has a solid match record in the last 10 years having won 66% of her matches (242-124). 15-1 on hard in 2025. In connection with her performance on the same surface of this tournament, Keys has a compiled 148-74 win-loss record in the last years on hard.
Her best result of the season was winning the title in Adelaide where she overcame Jessica Pegula in the final 6-3 4-6 6-1 and at the Australian Open where she overcame Aryna Sabalenka in the final 6-3 2-6 7-5.
Madison has an overall 15-1 win-loss record in 2025, 15-1 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Indian Wells
Elise Mertens
Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 | 28-12 | 10-6 | 6-5 | 5-0 | 7-1 | 0-0 |
2024 | 28-25 | 18-15 | 6-5 | 1-1 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
2023 | 30-22 | 24-16 | 5-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
2022 | 29-23 | 19-14 | 4-3 | 2-2 | 4-4 | 0-0 |
2021 | 33-20 | 20-10 | 9-5 | 2-2 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 28, the Belgian reached the 3rd round after defeating Unknown Player bye and Kimberly Birrell 6-4 7-5.
In the 2nd round, Mertens had a good straight sets win against Birrell (6-4 7-5). During the match Mertens scored 71 points vs Birrell’s 62. Elise was very aggressive to blast 31 winners.
Talking about serving, Mertens struck 10 aces and she committed only 7 double faults. Elise Mertens lost the serve twice and she saved 4 break points. Furthermore, Mertens put 59% of her first serves in, winning 76% (31/41) of the points behind her 1st serve and 46% (13/28) on the 2nd serve. Mertens broke Birrell 4 times after converting 50% of her break points (4/8).
Her best result of the year was winning the title in Singapore where she defeated Ann Li in the final 6-1 6-4.
The Belgian has a compiled 14-4 win-loss record in 2025, 9-4 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Indian Wells
Previously, her best result was reaching the 4th round in 2024. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
Points | Keys | Mertens |
---|---|---|
Match played | 1 | 1 |
Tot Set | 2 | 2 |
Tot Games | 15 | 22 |
Pts | 63-35 | 71-62 |
Total Points | 98 | 133 |
Winners | 17 | 31 |
%Winners | 27% | 44% |
Both Keys and Mertens played 1 match. Both players have not dropped a single set in this event so far. Talking about their workload, Keys and Mertens have played the same amount of sets 2. However, Keys played 7 games less than Mertens. Keys scored 17 winners (27% of the total points). On the other side, The Belgian recorded 31 winners (44%).
Serve Performance
Serve | Keys | Mertens |
---|---|---|
Aces | 0 | 10 |
Avg per match | 0 | 10 |
1st in | 22/44 | 41/69 |
%1st in | 50% | 59% |
1st pts | 17/22 | 31/41 |
%1st pts | 77% | 76% |
2nd pts | 14/22 | 13/28 |
%2nd pts | 64% | 46% |
Keys didn’t manage to fire a single ace to far. Mertens struck 10 aces . Keys won 77% points behind her first serve. She pretty effective on her second serve to win 64% of the points. On the other side, Mertens won 76% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 46% of the points.
How they played the important points
Breaks | Keys | Mertens |
---|---|---|
Won | 6 | 4 |
Converted | 6/9 | 4/8 |
% Converted | 67% | 50% |
Conceded | 6 | 6 |
Saved | 5 | 4 |
% Saved | 83% | 67% |
Times Broken | 1 | 2 |
The American broke her opponent 6 times with a 67% conversion rate. Madison surrendered her serve once and she saved 83% of the break points that she conceded. The Belgian broke her opponent 4 times with a 50% conversion rate. The Belgian conceded her serve twice and she saved 67% of the break points that she conceded.
Keys | |||
R2 Potapova |
Total | ||
---|---|---|---|
Score | 6-3 6-0 | ||
Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
Tot Games | 15 | 15 | |
pts | 63-35 | 63-35 | |
Total points | 98 | 98 | |
Winners | 17 | 17 | |
%Winners | 27% | 27% | |
SERVE | |||
Aces | 0 | 0 | |
Double Faults | 4 | 4 | |
1st in | 22/44 | 22/44 | |
% 1st in | 50% | 50% | |
1st pts | 17/22 | 17/22 | |
% 1st pts | 77% | 77% | |
2nd pts | 14/22 | 14/22 | |
% 2nd pts | 64% | 64% | |
Breaks | |||
Won | 6 | 6 | |
Converted | 6/9 | 6/9 | |
Converted % | 67% | 67% | |
Conceded | 6 | 6 | |
Saved | 5/6 | 5 | |
Saved % | 83% | 83% | |
Times Broken | 1 | 1 |
Mertens | |||
R2 Birrell |
Total | ||
---|---|---|---|
Score | 6-4 7-5 | ||
Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
Tot Games | 22 | 22 | |
pts | 71-62 | 71-62 | |
Total points | 133 | 133 | |
Winners | 31 | 31 | |
%Winners | 44% | 44% | |
SERVE | |||
Aces | 10 | 10 | |
Double Faults | 7 | 7 | |
1st in | 41/69 | 41/69 | |
% 1st in | 59% | 59% | |
1st pts | 31/41 | 31/41 | |
% 1st pts | 76% | 76% | |
2nd pts | 13/28 | 13/28 | |
% 2nd pts | 46% | 46% | |
Breaks | |||
Won | 4 | 4 | |
Converted | 4/8 | 4/8 | |
Converted % | 50% | 50% | |
Conceded | 6 | 6 | |
Saved | 4/6 | 4 | |
Saved % | 67% | 67% | |
Times Broken | 2 | 2 |
Head 2 Head



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- Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Dayana YastremskaYastremska (6-0 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Jessica PegulaPegula – Xinyu WangWang (6-2 6-1) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Elena RybakinaRybakina – Katie BoulterBoulter (6-0 7-5) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Elina SvitolinaSvitolina – Danielle Rose CollinsRose Collins (6-2 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Karolina MuchovaMuchova – Katerina SiniakovaSiniakova (7-5 6-1) – Stats, scores, rankings
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- Jaqueline CristianCristian – Jasmine PaoliniPaolini (0-3) – H2H and prediction
- Cori GauffGauff – Maria SakkariSakkari (3-5) – H2H and prediction
- Belinda BencicBencic – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Emma NavarroNavarro – Donna VekicVekic (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Elise MertensMertens – Madison KeysKeys (2-3) – H2H and prediction
- Clara TausonTauson – (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Qinwen ZhengZheng – Lulu SunSun (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Elina SvitolinaSvitolina – Jessica PegulaPegula (2-5) – H2H and prediction
- Karolina MuchovaMuchova – Iga SwiatekSwiatek (1-3) – H2H and prediction