H2H, prediction of Madison Keys vs Elise Mertens in Indian Wells with odds, preview, pick | 10th March 2025

PREVIEW. Indian Wells. Keys and Mertens will square off in the 3rd round of the BNP Paribas Open. See the prediction, H2H stats, odds, and preview of their upcoming match on Monday the 10th of March

Prediction and head to head Madison Keys vs. Elise Mertens

Madison Keys and Elise Mertens will fight against each other in the 3rd round of the BNP Paribas Open for the 6th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Monday at 11:00 am on STADIUM 2. Here the head to head stats and relative prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Madison Keys who should win in 2 sets.

See updated oddsAs per the initial odds, Madison Keys is the pick to win this match.
Madison Keys -> 1.42
Elise Mertens -> 2.86

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Soccer Tonic Predictions

Prediction and head to head Madison Keys vs. Elise Mertens

This will be the 6th time that Madison Keys and Elise Mertens face off. The head to head is 3-2 for Keys (see full H2H stats),but they are 2-2 on hard.

The last time that they competed against each other, Mertens won 6-7(5) 7-5 6-4 in the 3rd round in at the U.S. Open back in 2024.

Highlights Elise Mertens vs Madison Keys – U.S. Open 30-August-2024

Madison Keys

Madison Keys
Madison Keys

16 - 1win/loss

Hard
16-1
I Hard
0-0
Rank
8
High
5
WWLLWWLWWW
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 32-9 19-3 9-4 0-0 4-2 0-0
2024 24-12 7-6 13-4 0-0 4-2 0-0
2023 33-15 19-9 5-3 0-2 9-1 0-0
2022 30-20 25-12 4-4 0-3 1-1 0-0
2021 11-15 3-9 3-4 0-0 5-2 0-0

Ranked no. 5 (career-high), the American got to the 3rd round after beating Unknown Player bye and Anastasia Potapova 6-3 6-0.

In the 2nd round, Keys had a good straight sets win against Potapova (6-3 6-0). During the match, Keys scored 63 points vs Potapova’s 35. Madison was very aggressive to blast 17 winners.

Talking about the service games, Keys was unable to score even 1 ace during the match and she committed only 4 double faults. Overall, Madison Keys was exceptionally effective on serve to win 77% (17/22) of her 1st serve and 64% (14/22) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent her to concede the serve once. Keys broke Potapova 6 times after converting 67% of her break points (6/9).

Keys has a solid match record in the last 10 years having won 66% of her matches (242-124). 15-1 on hard in 2025. In connection with her performance on the same surface of this tournament, Keys has a compiled 148-74 win-loss record in the last years on hard.

Her best result of the season was winning the title in Adelaide where she overcame Jessica Pegula in the final 6-3 4-6 6-1 and at the Australian Open where she overcame Aryna Sabalenka in the final 6-3 2-6 7-5.

Madison has an overall 15-1 win-loss record in 2025, 15-1 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Indian Wells

Keys
Indian Wells
Keys's Record

Elise Mertens

Elise Mertens
Elise Mertens

14 - 5win/loss

Hard
9-5
I Hard
5-0
Rank
23
High
12
WWLWWWWWLL
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 28-12 10-6 6-5 5-0 7-1 0-0
2024 28-25 18-15 6-5 1-1 3-4 0-0
2023 30-22 24-16 5-4 0-0 1-2 0-0
2022 29-23 19-14 4-3 2-2 4-4 0-0
2021 33-20 20-10 9-5 2-2 2-3 0-0

Ranked no. 28, the Belgian reached the 3rd round after defeating Unknown Player bye and Kimberly Birrell 6-4 7-5.

In the 2nd round, Mertens had a good straight sets win against Birrell (6-4 7-5). During the match Mertens scored 71 points vs Birrell’s 62. Elise was very aggressive to blast 31 winners.

Talking about serving, Mertens struck 10 aces and she committed only 7 double faults. Elise Mertens lost the serve twice and she saved 4 break points. Furthermore, Mertens put 59% of her first serves in, winning 76% (31/41) of the points behind her 1st serve and 46% (13/28) on the 2nd serve. Mertens broke Birrell 4 times after converting 50% of her break points (4/8).

Her best result of the year was winning the title in Singapore where she defeated Ann Li in the final 6-1 6-4.

The Belgian has a compiled 14-4 win-loss record in 2025, 9-4 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Indian Wells

Previously, her best result was reaching the 4th round in 2024. See her history.

Mertens
Indian Wells
Mertens's Record
Bonus
Soccer Tonic Predictions

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

M.Keys
E.Mertens
1h:03
1h:03
Time on court​
!
1h:39
1h:39
1h:03
1h:03
Last match​
1h:39
1h:39
1
1
Match played
1
1
15
15
Games Played​
22
22
2
2
Set played​​
2
2
63
63
Total points​
71
71
63
63
Avg point​
71
71
17
17
Winners
31
31
17
17
Avg Winners​
31
31
27%
27%
Ratio winners
44%
44%
-- Serve --
0
0
Aces
10
10
0
0
Avg Aces
10
10
4
4
Double Faults
7
7
4
4
Avg Double Faults
!
7
7
17/22
17/22
1st won total​
31/41
31/41
!
77%
77%
1st won %
!
76%
76%
14/22
14/22
2nd won total​
13/28
13/28
!
64%
64%
2nd won %
46%
46%
-- Break Points --
6/9
6/9
BP won
4/8
4/8
6/9
6/9
Avg BP won
4/8
4/8
!
67%
67%
Won
50%
50%
6
6
Conceded
6
6
6
6
Avg Conceded
6
6
1
1
Broken
2
2
1
1
Avg Broken
2
2
5
5
Saved
4
4

Matches, sets, games and points

Points Keys Mertens
Match played 1 1
Tot Set 2 2
Tot Games 15 22
Pts 63-35 71-62
Total Points 98 133
Winners 17 31
%Winners 27% 44%

Both Keys and Mertens played 1 match. Both players have not dropped a single set in this event so far. Talking about their workload, Keys and Mertens have played the same amount of sets 2. However, Keys played 7 games less than Mertens. Keys scored 17 winners (27% of the total points). On the other side, The Belgian recorded 31 winners (44%).

Serve Performance

Serve Keys Mertens
Aces 0 10
Avg per match 0 10
1st in 22/44 41/69
%1st in 50% 59%
1st pts 17/22 31/41
%1st pts 77% 76%
2nd pts 14/22 13/28
%2nd pts 64% 46%

Keys didn’t manage to fire a single ace to far. Mertens struck 10 aces . Keys won 77% points behind her first serve. She pretty effective on her second serve to win 64% of the points. On the other side, Mertens won 76% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 46% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks Keys Mertens
Won 6 4
Converted 6/9 4/8
% Converted 67% 50%
Conceded 6 6
Saved 5 4
% Saved 83% 67%
Times Broken 1 2

The American broke her opponent 6 times with a 67% conversion rate. Madison surrendered her serve once and she saved 83% of the break points that she conceded. The Belgian broke her opponent 4 times with a 50% conversion rate. The Belgian conceded her serve twice and she saved 67% of the break points that she conceded.

Keys
R2
Potapova
Total
Score 6-3 6-0
Tot Set 2 2
Tot Games 15 15
pts 63-35 63-35
Total points 98 98
Winners 17 17
%Winners 27% 27%
SERVE
Aces 0 0
Double Faults 4 4
1st in 22/44 22/44
% 1st in 50% 50%
1st pts 17/22 17/22
% 1st pts 77% 77%
2nd pts 14/22 14/22
% 2nd pts 64% 64%
Breaks
Won 6 6
Converted 6/9 6/9
Converted % 67% 67%
Conceded 6 6
Saved 5/6 5
Saved % 83% 83%
Times Broken 1 1
Mertens
R2
Birrell
Total
Score 6-4 7-5
Tot Set 2 2
Tot Games 22 22
pts 71-62 71-62
Total points 133 133
Winners 31 31
%Winners 44% 44%
SERVE
Aces 10 10
Double Faults 7 7
1st in 41/69 41/69
% 1st in 59% 59%
1st pts 31/41 31/41
% 1st pts 76% 76%
2nd pts 13/28 13/28
% 2nd pts 46% 46%
Breaks
Won 4 4
Converted 4/8 4/8
Converted % 50% 50%
Conceded 6 6
Saved 4/6 4
Saved % 67% 67%
Times Broken 2 2

Head 2 Head

Win Loss
Keys
WWLLWWLWWW
Mertens
WWLWWWWWLL
2025 2024 2023
32 - 9
28 - 12
19-3
Hard
10-6
0-0
I Hard
5-0
9-4
Clay
6-5
4-2
Grass
7-1

Tennis Scores in Indian Wells

See Updated Draw
Soccer Tonic Predictions
Bonus

Upcoming matches in the draw