Aryna Sabalenka and Lucia Bronzetti will square off in the 3^rd round of the BNP Paribas Open for the 3^rd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Monday at 3:30 pm on STADIUM 1. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aryna Sabalenka who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Aryna Sabalenka is the pick to win this match.
Aryna Sabalenka -> 1.112
Lucia Bronzetti -> 6.5

Click here to see the updated quotes and live streaming (only selected countries - USA excluded).

To be able to watch live streaming bet365, a funded account is required or you need to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. 18+ BeGambleAware.

Here where top tennis events are broadcasted or streamed online (ATP, WTA).

At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.

 

Prediction and head to head Aryna Sabalenka vs. Lucia Bronzetti

This will be the 3^rd time that Aryna Sabalenka and Lucia Bronzetti fight against each other. The head to head is 2-0 for Sabalenka (see full H2H stats), 2-0 on hard.

The last time that they played each other, Sabalenka won 6-3 6-1 in the 2^nd round in at the U.S. Open back in 2024.

Highlights Aryna Sabalenka vs Lucia Bronzetti – U.S. Open 28-August-2024

Aryna Sabalenka

Currently world no. 1 Sabalenka reached the 3^rd round after defeating Unknown Player bye and Mccartney Kessler 7-6(4) 6-3.

In the 2^nd round, Aryna had a good straight sets win against Kessler (7-6⁴ 6-3). During the match, Sabalenka scored 73 points vs Kessler’s 59. The Belarussian was extremely aggressive to blast 31 winners.

Talking about the service games, Sabalenka scored 6 aces and she committed only 2 double faults. Aryna Sabalenka was extremely effective on serve to win 86% (31/36) of her 1st serve and 62% (13/21) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. The Belarussian broke Kessler twice after converting 67% of her break points (2/3).

Sabalenka has a solid match record in the last 10 years having won 69% of her matches (387-171). 13-3 on hard in 2025. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this competition, Sabalenka has an aggregate 240-95 record in the last years on hard.

Her best result of the current season was winning the title in Brisbane where she defeated Polina Kudermetova in the final 4-6 6-3 6-2.

Sabalenka has a composed 13-3 win-loss record in 2025, 13-3 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Indian Wells

Lucia Bronzetti

Ranked no. 62, the Italian reached the 3^rd round after defeating Anhelina Kalinina 6-4 7-5 and Magdalena Frech 6-3 7-5.

In the 2^nd round, Bronzetti had a good straight sets win against Frech (6-3 7-5). During the match Bronzetti scored 79 points vs Frech’s 68. Lucia was quite aggressive to blast 30 winners.

About the serving games, Bronzetti scored just 1 ace during the entire match and she committed only 3 double faults. Lucia Bronzetti lost the serve 4 times and she saved 8 break points. Furthermore, Bronzetti put 65% of her first serves in, winning 54% (30/56) of the points behind her 1st serve and 53% (16/30) on the 2nd serve. Bronzetti broke Frech 6 times after converting 60% of her break points (6/10).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Italian hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 53% of the points she played.

Bronzetti’s best result of the season was reaching the final in Napoca.

Lucia has a composed 8-7 win-loss record in 2025, 4-5 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Indian Wells

Previously, her best result was reaching the 3^rd round in 2024. See her history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Sabalenka	Bronzetti
Match played	1	2
Tot Set	2	4
Tot Games	22	43
Pts	73-59	157-137
Total Points	132	294
Winners	31	60
%Winners	42%	38%

Sabalenka played 1 match while Bronzetti competed in 2 matches. Both players have not dropped a single set in this event so far. Sabalenka has played 2 set(s) less than Bronzetti (2 vs 4). Therefore, Sabalenka played 21 games less than Bronzetti. The Belarussian scored 31 winners (42% of the total points). On the other side, Lucia bagged 60 winners (38%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Sabalenka	Bronzetti
Aces	6	3
Avg per match	6	1.5
1st in	36/57	105/158
%1st in	63%	66%
1st pts	31/36	60/105
%1st pts	86%	57%
2nd pts	13/21	27/53
%2nd pts	62%	51%

Sabalenka fired 6 aces . Bronzetti scored 3 aces (1.5 per match). Sabalenka won 86% points behind her first serve. She was rock solid on her second serve to win 62% of the points. On the other side, Bronzetti won 57% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 51% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Sabalenka	Bronzetti
Won	2	11
Converted	2/3	11/21
% Converted	67%	52%
Conceded	0	16
Saved	0	9
% Saved	0%	56%
Times Broken	0	7

Aryna broke her opponent twice with a 67% conversion rate. Aryna very solid her serve as she has never surrendered a single service game after saving 0 break points. Bronzetti broke her opponents 11 times with a 52% conversion rate. Lucia conceded her serve 7 times and she saved 56% of the break points that she conceded.

Sabalenka
	R2 Kessler	Total
Score	7-64 6-3
Tot Set	2	2
Tot Games	22	22
pts	73-59	73-59
Total points	132	132
Winners	31	31
%Winners	42%	42%
SERVE
Aces	6	6
Double Faults	2	2
1st in	36/57	36/57
% 1st in	63%	63%
1st pts	31/36	31/36
% 1st pts	86%	86%
2nd pts	13/21	13/21
% 2nd pts	62%	62%
Breaks
Won	2	2
Converted	2/3	2/3
Converted %	67%	67%
Conceded	0	0
Saved	0/0	0
Saved %	–	0%
Times Broken	0	0

Bronzetti
	R1 Kalinina	R2 Frech	Total
Score	6-4 7-5	6-3 7-5
Tot Set	2	2	4
Tot Games	22	21	43
pts	78-69	79-68	157-137
Total points	147	147	294
Winners	30	30	60
%Winners	38%	38%	38%
SERVE
Aces	2	1	3
Double Faults	5	3	8
1st in	49/72	56/86	105/158
% 1st in	68%	65%	66%
1st pts	30/49	30/56	60/105
% 1st pts	61%	54%	57%
2nd pts	11/23	16/30	27/53
% 2nd pts	48%	53%	51%
Breaks
Won	5	6	11
Converted	5/11	6/10	11/21
Converted %	45%	60%	52%
Conceded	4	12	16
Saved	1/4	8/12	9
Saved %	25%	67%	92%
Times Broken	3	4	7

Tennis Scores in Indian Wells

• Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Dayana YastremskaYastremska (6-0 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Jessica PegulaPegula – Xinyu WangWang (6-2 6-1) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Elena RybakinaRybakina – Katie BoulterBoulter (6-0 7-5) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Elina SvitolinaSvitolina – Danielle Rose CollinsRose Collins (6-2 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Karolina MuchovaMuchova – Katerina SiniakovaSiniakova (7-5 6-1) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Marta KostyukKostyuk – Caroline DolehideDolehide (6-3 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Lucia BronzettiBronzetti (2-0) – H2H and prediction
• Darya KasatkinaKasatkina – Ludmilla SamsonovaSamsonova (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Jaqueline CristianCristian – Jasmine PaoliniPaolini (0-3) – H2H and prediction
• Cori GauffGauff – Maria SakkariSakkari (3-5) – H2H and prediction
• Belinda BencicBencic – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Emma NavarroNavarro – Donna VekicVekic (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Elise MertensMertens – Madison KeysKeys (2-3) – H2H and prediction
• Clara TausonTauson – (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Qinwen ZhengZheng – Lulu SunSun (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Elina SvitolinaSvitolina – Jessica PegulaPegula (2-5) – H2H and prediction
• Karolina MuchovaMuchova – Iga SwiatekSwiatek (1-3) – H2H and prediction