Brandon Nakashima and Matteo Arnaldi will play each other in the 3^rd round of the BNP Paribas Open for the 3^rd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Monday at 4:00 pm on STADIUM 3. Here the head to head stats and relative prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Brandon Nakashima who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Brandon Nakashima is the pick to win this match.
Brandon Nakashima -> 1.74
Matteo Arnaldi -> 2.09

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Prediction and head to head Brandon Nakashima vs. Matteo Arnaldi

This will be the 3^rd time that Brandon Nakashima and Matteo Arnaldi square off. The head to head is 1-1 (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.

The last time that they fought against each other, Arnaldi won 7-6(2) 6-4 in the quarter in Delray beach back in February 2025.

Highlights Matteo Arnaldi vs Brandon Nakashima – Delray beach 14-February-2025

Brandon Nakashima

Ranked no. 33 (career-high), Nakashima reached the 3^rd round after beating Unknown Player bye and Rinky Hijikata 7-5 6-1.

In the 2^nd round, Brandon had a good straight sets win against Hijikata (7-5 6-1). During the match, Nakashima scored 76 points vs Hijikata’s 58. Nakashima was extremely aggressive to blast 33 winners.

Regarding the service games, Nakashima made 14 aces and he was quite consistent in conceding no double faults. Brandon Nakashima was extremely effective on serve to win 77% (33/43) of his 1st serve and 54% (15/28) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Brandon broke Hijikata 3 times after converting 75% of his break points (3/4).

Nakashima has a solid match record in the last 10 years having won 61% of his matches (233-146). 7-5 on hard in 2025. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this event, Nakashima has a compiled 115-74 win-loss record in the last years on hard.

Brandon’s best result of the current season was getting to the semifinal in Acapulco.

Nakashima has an aggregate 7-6 win-loss record in 2025, 7-5 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Indian Wells

Matteo Arnaldi

Ranked no. 35, the Italian reached the 3^rd round after beating Aleksandar Kovacevic 6-3 5-7 6-4 and Andrey Rublev 6-4 7-5.

In the 2^nd round, Arnaldi had a good straight sets win against Rublev (6-4 7-5). During the match Arnaldi scored 70 points vs Rublev’s 61. Matteo was pretty aggressive to blast 17 winners.

About the serving games, Arnaldi wasn’t able to score even 1 ace for the entire match and he was pretty solid in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Matteo Arnaldi lost the serve 4 times and he saved 7 break points. Furthermore, Arnaldi put 43% of his first serves in, winning 57% (17/30) of the points behind his 1st serve and 55% (22/40) on the 2nd serve. Matteo broke Rublev 6 times after converting 60% of his break points (6/10).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Italian has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 52% of the points he played.

The Italian’s best result of the season was reaching the semifinal in Delray Beach.

Arnaldi has a composed 7-5 win-loss record in 2025, 5-4 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Indian Wells

Previously, his best result was reaching the 2^nd round in 2024. See his history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Nakashima	Arnaldi
Match played	1	2
Tot Set	2	5
Tot Games	19	53
Pts	76-58	171-158
Total Points	134	329
Winners	33	58
%Winners	43%	34%

Nakashima played 1 match while Arnaldi competed in 2 matches. At the moment, Matteo Arnaldi lost 1 set while Brandon Nakashima hasn’t dropped a set so far. Nakashima has played 3 set(s) less than Arnaldi (2 vs 5). Therefore, Nakashima played 34 games less than Arnaldi. Nakashima scored 33 winners (43% of the total points). On the other side, Arnaldi recorded 58 winners (34%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Nakashima	Arnaldi
Aces	14	7
Avg per match	14	3.5
1st in	43/71	91/176
%1st in	61%	52%
1st pts	33/43	58/91
%1st pts	77%	64%
2nd pts	15/28	46/85
%2nd pts	54%	54%

Nakashima managed to score 14 aces . Arnaldi managed to score 7 aces (3.5 per match). Nakashima won 77% points on his first serve. He pretty effective on his second serve to win 54% of the points. On the other side, Arnaldi won 64% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 54% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Nakashima	Arnaldi
Won	3	10
Converted	3/4	10/20
% Converted	75%	50%
Conceded	3	26
Saved	3	19
% Saved	100%	73%
Times Broken	0	7

The American broke his opponent 3 times with a 75% conversion rate. Brandon extremely effective on his serve as he has never surrendered a single service game after saving 3 break points. The Italian broke his opponents 10 times with a 50% conversion rate. Arnaldi conceded his serve 7 times and he saved 73% of the break points that he conceded.

Nakashima
	R2 Hijikata	Total
Score	7-5 6-1
Tot Set	2	2
Tot Games	19	19
pts	76-58	76-58
Total points	134	134
Winners	33	33
%Winners	43%	43%
SERVE
Aces	14	14
Double Faults	0	0
1st in	43/71	43/71
% 1st in	61%	61%
1st pts	33/43	33/43
% 1st pts	77%	77%
2nd pts	15/28	15/28
% 2nd pts	54%	54%
Breaks
Won	3	3
Converted	3/4	3/4
Converted %	75%	75%
Conceded	3	3
Saved	3/3	3
Saved %	100%	100%
Times Broken	0	0

Arnaldi
	R1 Kovacevic	R2 Rublev	Total
Score	6-3 5-7 6-4	6-4 7-5
Tot Set	3	2	5
Tot Games	31	22	53
pts	101-97	70-61	171-158
Total points	198	131	329
Winners	41	17	58
%Winners	41%	24%	34%
SERVE
Aces	7	0	7
Double Faults	6	0	6
1st in	61/106	30/70	91/176
% 1st in	58%	43%	52%
1st pts	41/61	17/30	58/91
% 1st pts	67%	57%	64%
2nd pts	24/45	22/40	46/85
% 2nd pts	53%	55%	54%
Breaks
Won	4	6	10
Converted	4/10	6/10	10/20
Converted %	40%	60%	50%
Conceded	15	11	26
Saved	12/15	7/11	19
Saved %	80%	64%	144%
Times Broken	3	4	7

Tennis Scores in Indian Wells

• Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas – Matteo BerrettiniBerrettini (6-3 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Tallon GriekspoorGriekspoor – Giovanni Mpetshi PerricardMpetshi Perricard (7-6³ 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Alex MichelsenMichelsen (2-0 ret.) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Tommy PaulPaul – Cameron NorrieNorrie (6-3 7-5) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Marcos GironGiron – Alexei PopyrinPopyrin (5-7 6-3 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Grigor DimitrovDimitrov – Gael MonfilsMonfils (2-4) – H2H and prediction
• Botic Van De ZandschulpVan De Zandschulp – Francisco CerundoloCerundolo (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Karen KhachanovKhachanov – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Hubert HurkaczHurkacz – Alex De MinaurDe Minaur (1-1) – H2H and prediction
• Tommy PaulPaul – Daniil MedvedevMedvedev (1-3) – H2H and prediction
• Alejandro TabiloTabilo – Taylor Harry FritzHarry Fritz (0-3) – H2H and prediction
• Yosuke WatanukiWatanuki – Frances TiafoeTiafoe (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Denis ShapovalovShapovalov – Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Jack DraperDraper – Jenson BrooksbyBrooksby (2-0) – H2H and prediction
• Holger Vitus Nodskov RuneVitus Nodskov Rune – Ugo HumbertHumbert (3-0) – H2H and prediction