Daniil Medvedev and Alex Michelsen will play each other in the 3^rd round of the BNP Paribas Open for the 1^st time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Sunday at 3:30 pm on STADIUM 1. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Daniil Medvedev who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Daniil Medvedev is the pick to win this match.
Daniil Medvedev -> 1.39
Alex Michelsen -> 2.99

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Prediction and head to head Daniil Medvedev vs. Alex Michelsen

There is no head to head record between Daniil Medvedev and Alex Michelsen since this will be the first time that they will face off in the main tour.

Daniil Medvedev

Ranked no. 6, Daniil reached the 3^rd round after defeating Unknown Player bye and Bu Yunchaokete 6-2 6-2.

In the 2^nd round, Medvedev had a good straight sets win against Yunchaokete (6-2 6-2). During the match, Medvedev scored 65 points vs Yunchaokete’s 49. The Russian was very aggressive to blast 19 winners.

Regarding the service games, Medvedev recorded 3 aces and he committed only 1 double fault. Daniil Medvedev lost the serve once and he saved 1 break points. Furthermore, Medvedev put 40% of his first serves in, winning 90% (19/21) of the points behind his 1st serve and 45% (14/31) on the 2nd serve. The Russian broke Yunchaokete 5 times after converting 36% of his break points (5/14).

Medvedev has a terrific match record in the last 10 years having won 71% of his matches (466-187). 6-3 on hard in 2025. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Medvedev has a compiled 229-71 record in the last years on hard.

The Russian’s best result of the year was reaching the semifinal in Marseille.

Medvedev has a compiled 9-5 win-loss record in 2025, 6-3 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Indian Wells

Alex Michelsen

Ranked no. 32 (career-high), the American reached the 3^rd round after beating Unknown Player bye and Colton Smith 6-3 6-4.

In the 2^nd round, The American had a good straight sets win against Smith (6-3 6-4). During the match Michelsen scored 80 points vs Smith’s 70. Alex was extremely aggressive to blast 35 winners.

Talking about serving, Michelsen struck 2 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Alex Michelsen lost the serve once and he saved 5 break points. Furthermore, Michelsen put 59% of his first serves in, winning 67% (35/52) of the points behind his 1st serve and 56% (20/36) on the 2nd serve. Michelsen broke Smith 3 times after converting 43% of his break points (3/7).

The American’s best result of the season was getting to the semifinal in Delray Beach.

The American has an aggregate 11-6 win-loss record in 2025, 10-5 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Indian Wells

Previously, his best result was reaching the 2^nd round in 2024. See his history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Medvedev	Michelsen
Match played	1	1
Tot Set	2	2
Tot Games	16	19
Pts	65-49	80-70
Total Points	114	150
Winners	19	35
%Winners	29%	44%

Both Medvedev and Michelsen played 1 match. Both players have not surrendered a single set in this event so far. Talking about their workload, Medvedev and Michelsen have played the same amount of sets 2. However, Medvedev played 3 games less than Michelsen. Medvedev scored 19 winners (29% of the total points). On the other side, Michelsen recorded 35 winners (44%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Medvedev	Michelsen
Aces	3	2
Avg per match	3	2
1st in	21/52	52/88
%1st in	40%	59%
1st pts	19/21	35/52
%1st pts	90%	67%
2nd pts	14/31	20/36
%2nd pts	45%	56%

Medvedev struck 3 aces . Michelsen recorded 2 aces . Medvedev won 90% points on his first serve. He quite strong on his second serve to win 45% of the points. On the other side, Michelsen won 67% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 56% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Medvedev	Michelsen
Won	5	3
Converted	5/14	3/7
% Converted	36%	43%
Conceded	2	6
Saved	1	5
% Saved	50%	83%
Times Broken	1	1

The Russian broke his opponent 5 times with a 36% conversion rate. Daniil dropped his serve once and he saved 50% of the break points that he conceded. Michelsen broke his opponent 3 times with a 43% conversion rate. Michelsen conceded his serve once and he saved 83% of the break points that he conceded.

Medvedev
	R2 Yunchaokete	Total
Score	6-2 6-2
Tot Set	2	2
Tot Games	16	16
pts	65-49	65-49
Total points	114	114
Winners	19	19
%Winners	29%	29%
SERVE
Aces	3	3
Double Faults	1	1
1st in	21/52	21/52
% 1st in	40%	40%
1st pts	19/21	19/21
% 1st pts	90%	90%
2nd pts	14/31	14/31
% 2nd pts	45%	45%
Breaks
Won	5	5
Converted	5/14	5/14
Converted %	36%	36%
Conceded	2	2
Saved	1/2	1
Saved %	50%	50%
Times Broken	1	1

Michelsen
	R2 Smith	Total
Score	6-3 6-4
Tot Set	2	2
Tot Games	19	19
pts	80-70	80-70
Total points	150	150
Winners	35	35
%Winners	44%	44%
SERVE
Aces	2	2
Double Faults	3	3
1st in	52/88	52/88
% 1st in	59%	59%
1st pts	35/52	35/52
% 1st pts	67%	67%
2nd pts	20/36	20/36
% 2nd pts	56%	56%
Breaks
Won	3	3
Converted	3/7	3/7
Converted %	43%	43%
Conceded	6	6
Saved	5/6	5
Saved %	83%	83%
Times Broken	1	1

Tennis Scores in Indian Wells

• Jenson BrooksbyBrooksby – Felix Auger-AliassimeAuger-Aliassime (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
• Francisco CerundoloCerundolo – Mackenzie McdonaldMcdonald (4-6 7-6³ 6-1) – See score progression
• Alejandro TabiloTabilo – Dusan LajovicLajovic (6-3 7-5) – See score progression
• Botic Van De ZandschulpVan De Zandschulp – Novak DjokovicDjokovic (6-2 3-6 6-1) – See score progression
• Denis ShapovalovShapovalov – Adam WaltonWalton (6-3 6-2) – See score progression
• Jack DraperDraper – Joao FonsecaFonseca (6-4 6-0) – See score progression
• Carlos AlcarazAlcaraz – Quentin HalysHalys (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
• Hubert HurkaczHurkacz – Hugo GastonGaston (7-5 6-3) – See score progression
• Matteo ArnaldiArnaldi – Andrey RublevRublev (6-4 7-5) – See score progression
• Taylor FritzFritz – Matteo GiganteGigante (6-3 7-5) – See score progression
• Tallon GriekspoorGriekspoor – Alexander ZverevZverev (4-6 7-6⁵ 7-6⁴) – See score progression
• Ugo HumbertHumbert – Kei NishikoriNishikori (6-4 6-3) – See score progression
• Yosuke WatanukiWatanuki – Tomas MachacMachac (4-6 4-2 ret.) – See score progression
• Frances TiafoeTiafoe – Damir DzumhurDzumhur (7-6⁴ 7-6⁷) – See score progression
• Tommy PaulPaul – Tristan BoyerBoyer (6-3 6-1) – See score progression
• Alexei PopyrinPopyrin – Zizou BergsBergs (7-6⁴ 7-5) – See score progression
• Giovanni Mpetshi PerricardMpetshi Perricard – Fabian MarozsanMarozsan (6-4 ret.) – See score progression
• Alex MichelsenMichelsen – Colton SmithSmith (6-3 6-4) – See score progression
• Matteo BerrettiniBerrettini – Christopher O ConnellO Connell (6-2 7-6²) – See score progression
• Lorenzo MusettiMusetti – Roman SafiullinSafiullin (7-5 5-7 6-2) – See score progression
• Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Bu YunchaoketeYunchaokete (6-2 6-2) – See score progression
• Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas – Thiago Seyboth WildSeyboth Wild (6-2 6-4) – See score progression
• Holger RuneRune – Corentin MoutetMoutet (6-2 6-4) – See score progression
• Cameron NorrieNorrie – Jiri LeheckaLehecka (3-6 6-4 7-5) – See score progression
• Arthur FilsFils – Gabriel DialloDiallo (6-2 6-2) – See score progression
• Marcos GironGiron – Casper RuudRuud (7-6⁴ 3-6 6-2) – See score progression
• Matteo ArnaldiArnaldi – Andrey RublevRublev (6-4 7-5) – See score progression
• Brandon NakashimaNakashima – Rinky HijikataHijikata (7-5 6-1) – See score progression
• Jack DraperDraper – Joao FonsecaFonseca (6-4 6-0) – See score progression
• Jenson BrooksbyBrooksby – Felix Auger AliassimeAuger Aliassime (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
• Alejandro TabiloTabilo – Dusan LajovicLajovic (6-3 7-5) – See score progression
• Taylor Harry FritzHarry Fritz – Matteo GiganteGigante (6-3 7-5) – See score progression
• Botic Van De ZandschulpVan De Zandschulp – Novak DjokovicDjokovic (6-2 3-6 6-1) – See score progression
• Francisco CerundoloCerundolo – Mackenzie McdonaldMcdonald (4-6 7-6(3) 6-1) – See score progression
• Hubert HurkaczHurkacz – Hugo GastonGaston (7-5 6-3) – See score progression
• Denis ShapovalovShapovalov – Adam WaltonWalton (6-3 6-2) – See score progression
• Carlos AlcarazAlcaraz – Quentin HalysHalys (6-4 6-2) – See score progression

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Gael MonfilsMonfils – Sebastian KordaKorda (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• David GoffinGoffin – Alex De MinaurDe Minaur (0-6) – H2H and prediction
• Grigor DimitrovDimitrov – Nuno BorgesBorges (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Marcos GironGiron – Alexei PopyrinPopyrin (1-1) – H2H and prediction
• Botic Van De ZandschulpVan De Zandschulp – Francisco CerundoloCerundolo (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Karen KhachanovKhachanov – (1-0) – H2H and prediction
• Matteo BerrettiniBerrettini – Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas (1-5) – H2H and prediction
• Tommy PaulPaul – Cameron NorrieNorrie (2-3) – H2H and prediction
• Alejandro TabiloTabilo – Taylor Harry FritzHarry Fritz (0-3) – H2H and prediction
• Yosuke WatanukiWatanuki – Frances TiafoeTiafoe (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Denis ShapovalovShapovalov – Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Tallon GriekspoorGriekspoor – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Jack DraperDraper – Jenson BrooksbyBrooksby (2-0) – H2H and prediction
• Mariano NavoneNavone – (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Holger Vitus Nodskov RuneVitus Nodskov Rune – Ugo HumbertHumbert (3-0) – H2H and prediction