Frances Tiafoe and Yosuke Watanuki will play each other in the 3^rd round of the BNP Paribas Open for the 2^nd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Sunday at 8:00 pm on STADIUM 1. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Frances Tiafoe who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Frances Tiafoe is the pick to win this match.
Frances Tiafoe -> 1.4
Yosuke Watanuki -> 2.95

Click here to see the updated quotes and live streaming (only selected countries - USA excluded).

To be able to watch live streaming bet365, a funded account is required or you need to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. 18+ BeGambleAware.

Here where top tennis events are broadcasted or streamed online (ATP, WTA).

At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.

 

Prediction and head to head Frances Tiafoe vs. Yosuke Watanuki

This will be the 2^nd time that Frances Tiafoe and Yosuke Watanuki clash against each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Tiafoe (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.

The last time that they fought against each other, Tiafoe won 6-7(5) 7-6(3) 6-4 in the 2^nd round in Miami back in 2023.

Highlights Frances Tiafoe vs Yosuke Watanuki – Miami 25-March-2023

Frances Tiafoe

Ranked no. 17, Francis reached the 3^rd round after defeating Unknown Player bye and Damir Dzumhur 7-6(4) 7-6(7).

In the 2^nd round, The American had a good straight sets win against Dzumhur (7-6⁴ 7-6⁷). During the match, Tiafoe scored 100 points vs Dzumhur’s 88. The American was quite aggressive to blast 38 winners.

Talking about the service games, Tiafoe recorded 5 aces and he committed only 5 double faults. Frances Tiafoe lost the serve 5 times and he saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Tiafoe put 56% of his first serves in, winning 69% (38/55) of the points behind his 1st serve and 50% (22/44) on the 2nd serve. The American broke Dzumhur 5 times after converting 50% of his break points (5/10).

Tiafoe has positive record in the last 10 years having won 57% of his matches (307-228). 4-3 on hard in 2025. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Tiafoe has a composed 164-111 win-loss record in the last years on hard.

Tiafoe has a composed 5-4 win-loss record in 2025, 4-3 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Indian Wells

Yosuke Watanuki

Ranked no. 349, Yousuke reached the 3^rd round after defeating Mattia Bellucci 6-1 6-2, Rudy Quan 6-3 6-2, Alexander Bublik 6-3 3-6 6-3 and Tomas Machac 4-6 4-2 ret..

In the 2^nd round against Machac, Yousuke had a free pass after Machac retired on a 4-6 4-2 . scoreline.

Watanuki has a compiled 8-4 win-loss record in 2025, 7-3 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Indian Wells

Previously, his best result was reaching the qualifications in 2023. See his history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Tiafoe	Watanuki
Match played	1	4
Tot Set	2	10
Tot Games	26	75
Pts	100-88	251-196
Total Points	188	447
Winners	38	103
%Winners	38%	41%

Tiafoe played 1 match while Watanuki competed in 4 matches. Watanuki started his run from the qualifications while Tiafoe had a direct access to the main draw. At the moment, Yosuke Watanuki conceded 2 sets while Frances Tiafoe hasn’t lost a set so far. Tiafoe has played 8 set(s) less than Watanuki (2 vs 10). Therefore, Tiafoe played 49 games less than Watanuki. The American scored 38 winners (38% of the total points). On the other side, The Japanese fired 103 winners (41%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Tiafoe	Watanuki
Aces	5	29
Avg per match	5	7.3
1st in	55/99	134/234
%1st in	56%	57%
1st pts	38/55	103/134
%1st pts	69%	77%
2nd pts	22/44	56/100
%2nd pts	50%	56%

Tiafoe struck 5 aces . Watanuki managed to score 29 aces (7.3 per match). Tiafoe won 69% points behind his first serve. He was rock solid on his second serve to win 50% of the points. On the other side, Watanuki won 77% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 56% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Tiafoe	Watanuki
Won	5	13
Converted	5/10	13/27
% Converted	50%	48%
Conceded	7	14
Saved	2	9
% Saved	29%	64%
Times Broken	5	5

Francis broke his opponent 5 times with a 50% conversion rate. The American surrendered his serve 5 times and he saved 29% of the break points that he conceded. The Japanese broke his opponents 13 times with a 48% conversion rate. Watanuki conceded his serve 5 times and he saved 64% of the break points that he conceded.

Tiafoe
	R2 Dzumhur	Total
Score	7-64 7-67
Tot Set	2	2
Tot Games	26	26
pts	100-88	100-88
Total points	188	188
Winners	38	38
%Winners	38%	38%
SERVE
Aces	5	5
Double Faults	5	5
1st in	55/99	55/99
% 1st in	56%	56%
1st pts	38/55	38/55
% 1st pts	69%	69%
2nd pts	22/44	22/44
% 2nd pts	50%	50%
Breaks
Won	5	5
Converted	5/10	5/10
Converted %	50%	50%
Conceded	7	7
Saved	2/7	2
Saved %	29%	29%
Times Broken	5	5

Watanuki
	Q1 Bellucci	Q3 Quan	R1 Bublik	R2 Machac	Total
Score	6-1 6-2	6-3 6-2	6-3 3-6 6-3	4-6 4-2 ret.
Tot Set	2	2	3	2	9
Tot Games	15	17	27	16	75
pts	64-46	58-36	84-73	45-41	251-196
Total points	110	94	157	86	447
Winners	28	19	37	19	103
%Winners	44%	33%	44%	42%	41%
SERVE
Aces	7	5	13	4	29
Double Faults	1	2	2	2	7
1st in	39/68	24/48	49/76	22/42	134/234
% 1st in	57%	50%	64%	52%	57%
1st pts	28/39	19/24	37/49	19/22	103/134
% 1st pts	72%	79%	76%	86%	77%
2nd pts	15/29	13/24	18/27	10/20	56/100
% 2nd pts	52%	54%	67%	50%	56%
Breaks
Won	4	5	2	2	13
Converted	4/8	5/6	2/11	2/2	13/27
Converted %	50%	83%	18%	100%	48%
Conceded	3	3	4	4	14
Saved	3/3	1/3	3/4	2/4	9
Saved %	100%	33%	75%	50%	258%
Times Broken	0	2	1	2	5

Tennis Scores in Indian Wells

• Jack DraperDraper – Joao FonsecaFonseca (6-4 6-0) – See score progression
• Carlos AlcarazAlcaraz – Quentin HalysHalys (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
• Botic Van De ZandschulpVan De Zandschulp – Novak DjokovicDjokovic (6-2 3-6 6-1) – See score progression
• Matteo ArnaldiArnaldi – Andrey RublevRublev (6-4 7-5) – See score progression
• Taylor FritzFritz – Matteo GiganteGigante (6-3 7-5) – See score progression
• Hubert HurkaczHurkacz – Hugo GastonGaston (7-5 6-3) – See score progression
• Francisco CerundoloCerundolo – Mackenzie McdonaldMcdonald (4-6 7-6³ 6-1) – See score progression
• Alejandro TabiloTabilo – Dusan LajovicLajovic (6-3 7-5) – See score progression
• Jenson BrooksbyBrooksby – Felix Auger-AliassimeAuger-Aliassime (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
• Denis ShapovalovShapovalov – Adam WaltonWalton (6-3 6-2) – See score progression
• Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Bu YunchaoketeYunchaokete (6-2 6-2) – See score progression
• Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas – Thiago Seyboth WildSeyboth Wild (6-2 6-4) – See score progression
• Frances TiafoeTiafoe – Damir DzumhurDzumhur (7-6⁴ 7-6⁷) – See score progression
• Matteo BerrettiniBerrettini – Christopher O ConnellO Connell (6-2 7-6²) – See score progression
• Arthur FilsFils – Gabriel DialloDiallo (6-2 6-2) – See score progression
• Marcos GironGiron – Casper RuudRuud (7-6⁴ 3-6 6-2) – See score progression
• Tallon GriekspoorGriekspoor – Alexander ZverevZverev (4-6 7-6⁵ 7-6⁴) – See score progression
• Ugo HumbertHumbert – Kei NishikoriNishikori (6-4 6-3) – See score progression
• Holger RuneRune – Corentin MoutetMoutet (6-2 6-4) – See score progression
• Cameron NorrieNorrie – Jiri LeheckaLehecka (3-6 6-4 7-5) – See score progression
• Tommy PaulPaul – Tristan BoyerBoyer (6-3 6-1) – See score progression
• Alexei PopyrinPopyrin – Zizou BergsBergs (7-6⁴ 7-5) – See score progression
• Giovanni Mpetshi PerricardMpetshi Perricard – Fabian MarozsanMarozsan (6-4 ret.) – See score progression
• Alex MichelsenMichelsen – Colton SmithSmith (6-3 6-4) – See score progression
• Yosuke WatanukiWatanuki – Tomas MachacMachac (4-6 4-2 ret.) – See score progression
• Lorenzo MusettiMusetti – Roman SafiullinSafiullin (7-5 5-7 6-2) – See score progression
• Matteo ArnaldiArnaldi – Andrey RublevRublev (6-4 7-5) – See score progression
• Brandon NakashimaNakashima – Rinky HijikataHijikata (7-5 6-1) – See score progression
• Jack DraperDraper – Joao FonsecaFonseca (6-4 6-0) – See score progression
• Jenson BrooksbyBrooksby – Felix Auger AliassimeAuger Aliassime (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
• Alejandro TabiloTabilo – Dusan LajovicLajovic (6-3 7-5) – See score progression
• Taylor Harry FritzHarry Fritz – Matteo GiganteGigante (6-3 7-5) – See score progression
• Botic Van De ZandschulpVan De Zandschulp – Novak DjokovicDjokovic (6-2 3-6 6-1) – See score progression
• Francisco CerundoloCerundolo – Mackenzie McdonaldMcdonald (4-6 7-6(3) 6-1) – See score progression
• Hubert HurkaczHurkacz – Hugo GastonGaston (7-5 6-3) – See score progression
• Denis ShapovalovShapovalov – Adam WaltonWalton (6-3 6-2) – See score progression
• Carlos AlcarazAlcaraz – Quentin HalysHalys (6-4 6-2) – See score progression

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Gael MonfilsMonfils – Sebastian KordaKorda (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• David GoffinGoffin – Alex De MinaurDe Minaur (0-6) – H2H and prediction
• Grigor DimitrovDimitrov – Nuno BorgesBorges (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Marcos GironGiron – Alexei PopyrinPopyrin (1-1) – H2H and prediction
• Botic Van De ZandschulpVan De Zandschulp – Francisco CerundoloCerundolo (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Karen KhachanovKhachanov – (1-0) – H2H and prediction
• Matteo BerrettiniBerrettini – Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas (1-5) – H2H and prediction
• Tommy PaulPaul – Cameron NorrieNorrie (2-3) – H2H and prediction
• Alejandro TabiloTabilo – Taylor Harry FritzHarry Fritz (0-3) – H2H and prediction
• Yosuke WatanukiWatanuki – Frances TiafoeTiafoe (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Denis ShapovalovShapovalov – Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Tallon GriekspoorGriekspoor – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Rinky HijikataHijikata – Brandon NakashimaNakashima (1-2) – H2H and prediction
• Jack DraperDraper – Jenson BrooksbyBrooksby (2-0) – H2H and prediction
• Mariano NavoneNavone – (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Holger Vitus Nodskov RuneVitus Nodskov Rune – Ugo HumbertHumbert (3-0) – H2H and prediction