Aslan Karatsev and Ryan Peniston will fight against each other in the quarter of the Hersonissos 1 Challenger for the 1^st time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Friday at 1:30 pm on CENTRE COURT. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aslan Karatsev who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Aslan Karatsev is the pick to win this match.
Aslan Karatsev -> 1.51
Ryan Peniston -> 2.42

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Prediction and head to head Aslan Karatsev vs. Ryan Peniston

There is no head to head record between Aslan Karatsev and Ryan Peniston since this will be the first time that they will fight against each other in the main tour.

Aslan Karatsev

Ranked no. 207, the Russian reached the quarter after defeating Unknown Player bye, Petros Tsitsipas 6-2 2-1 ret., Dino Prizmic 6-4 7-6(3) and Lorenzo Giustino 7-5 2-6 6-1.

In the 2^nd round, The Russian defeated Giustino (7-5 2-6 6-1). During the match, Karatsev scored 89 points vs Giustino’s 84. The Russian was very aggressive to blast 43 winners.

Regarding the service games, Karatsev fired 2 aces and he committed only 5 double faults. Aslan Karatsev lost the serve 5 times and he saved 8 break points. Furthermore, Karatsev put 64% of his first serves in, winning 68% (43/63) of the points behind his 1st serve and 34% (12/35) on the 2nd serve. Karatsev broke Giustino 6 times after converting 60% of his break points (6/10).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Karatsev started his run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, he has surrendered 1 set in this competition to win 52% of the points he played.

Karatsev has favorable win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 59% of his matches (285-198). 10-4 on hard in 2025. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this competition, Karatsev has a compiled 140-73 record in the last years on hard.

His best result of the current season was winning the title the Nonthaburi 1 Challenger where he beat Gregoire Barrere in the final 7-6(5) 7-5.

Aslan has an aggregate 10-4 win-loss record in 2025, 10-4 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in the Hersonissos 1 Challenger

Aslan has never competed in this tournament before.

Ryan Peniston

Ranked no. 406, Ryan reached the quarter after beating Unknown Player bye, Mark Whitehouse 6-3 6-4, Adria Soriano Barrera 6-4 6-4 and Khumoun Sultanov 6-4 6-2.

In the 2^nd round, The Brit had a good straight sets win against Sultanov (6-4 6-2). During the match Peniston scored 66 points vs Sultanov’s 45. The Brit was exceptionally aggressive to blast 31 winners.

About the serving games, Peniston managed to score 3 aces and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Ryan Peniston lost the serve once and he saved 5 break points. Furthermore, Peniston put 79% of his first serves in, winning 70% (31/44) of the points behind his 1st serve and 58% (7/12) on the 2nd serve. The Brit broke Sultanov 4 times after converting 80% of his break points (4/5).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Ryan started his run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, he hasn’t conceded yet a set in this competition to conquer 56% of the points he played.

Ryan’s best result of the season was getting to the final in M25 Sunderland and M25 Vila Real de Santo Antonio.

Peniston has an overall 12-4 win-loss record in 2025, 8-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).

H2H Performance in the tournament

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Karatsev	Peniston
Match played	3	3
Tot Set	8	6
Tot Games	61	57
Pts	217-189	208-163
Total Points	406	371
Winners	99	81
%Winners	46%	39%

Both Karatsev and Peniston played 3 matches. Also both players started their run from the qualifications.At the moment, Aslan Karatsev lost 1 set while Ryan Peniston hasn’t dropped a set so far. Karatsev has played 2 sets more than Peniston (8 vs 6). Therefore, Karatsev played 4 games more than Peniston. Karatsev scored 99 winners (46% of the total points). On the other side, Peniston managed to score 81 winners (39%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Karatsev	Peniston
Aces	8	7
Avg per match	2.7	2.3
1st in	140/212	111/165
%1st in	66%	67%
1st pts	99/140	81/111
%1st pts	71%	73%
2nd pts	29/72	31/54
%2nd pts	40%	57%

Karatsev managed to score 8 aces (2.7 per match). Peniston struck 7 aces (2.3 per match). Karatsev won 71% points on his first serve. He pretty effective on his second serve to win 40% of the points. On the other side, Peniston won 73% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 57% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Karatsev	Peniston
Won	12	12
Converted	12/24	12/19
% Converted	50%	63%
Conceded	19	13
Saved	12	9
% Saved	63%	69%
Times Broken	7	4

The Russian broke his opponents 12 times with a 50% conversion rate. Karatsev surrendered his serve 7 times and he saved 63% of the break points that he conceded. The Brit broke his opponents 12 times with a 63% conversion rate. The Brit conceded his serve 4 times and he saved 69% of the break points that he conceded.

Karatsev
	Q3 Tsitsipas	R1 Prizmic	R2 Giustino	Total
Score	6-2 2-1 ret.	6-4 7-63	7-5 2-6 6-1
Tot Set	2	2	3	7
Tot Games	11	23	27	61
pts	42-29	86-76	89-84	217-189
Total points	71	162	173	406
Winners	20	36	43	99
%Winners	48%	42%	48%	46%
SERVE
Aces	3	3	2	8
Double Faults	5	5	5	15
1st in	25/38	52/76	63/98	140/212
% 1st in	66%	68%	64%	66%
1st pts	20/25	36/52	43/63	99/140
% 1st pts	80%	69%	68%	71%
2nd pts	5/13	12/24	12/35	29/72
% 2nd pts	38%	50%	34%	40%
Breaks
Won	3	3	6	12
Converted	3/4	3/10	6/10	12/24
Converted %	75%	30%	60%	50%
Conceded	0	6	13	19
Saved	0/0	4/6	8/13	12
Saved %	–	67%	62%	43%
Times Broken	0	2	5	7

Peniston
	Q3 Whitehouse	R1 Soriano	R2 Sultanov	Total
Score	6-3 6-4	6-4 6-4	6-4 6-2
Tot Set	2	2	2	6
Tot Games	19	20	18	57
pts	66-49	76-69	66-45	208-163
Total points	115	145	111	371
Winners	20	30	31	81
%Winners	30%	39%	47%	39%
SERVE
Aces	3	1	3	7
Double Faults	3	2	1	6
1st in	24/48	43/61	44/56	111/165
% 1st in	50%	70%	79%	67%
1st pts	20/24	30/43	31/44	81/111
% 1st pts	83%	70%	70%	73%
2nd pts	15/24	9/18	7/12	31/54
% 2nd pts	63%	50%	58%	57%
Breaks
Won	4	4	4	12
Converted	4/4	4/10	4/5	12/19
Converted %	100%	40%	80%	63%
Conceded	3	4	6	13
Saved	2/3	2/4	5/6	9
Saved %	67%	50%	83%	67%
Times Broken	1	2	1	4

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Aslan KaratsevKaratsev – Ryan PenistonPeniston (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Dennis NovakNovak – Zsombor PirosPiros (0-2) – H2H and prediction
• Stuart ParkerParker – Dimitar KuzmanovKuzmanov (0-0) – H2H and prediction