Mathys Erhard and Luka Pavlovic will fight against each other in the 2^nd round of the Kigali 2 Challenger for the 2^nd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Thursday at 12:30 pm on CENTRE COURT. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Luka Pavlovic who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Luka Pavlovic is the pick to win this match.
Luka Pavlovic -> 1.81
Mathys Erhard -> 1.92

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Prediction and head to head Mathys Erhard vs. Luka Pavlovic

This will be the 2^nd time that Mathys Erhard and Luka Pavlovic play each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Erhard (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on clay.

The last time that they locked horns, Erhard won 6-7(3) 7-6(2) 3-0 ret. in the 2^nd round in the Kigali 1 Challenger back in February 2025.

Mathys Erhard

Ranked no. 285 (career-high), the French player reached the 2^nd round after beating Maxime Janvier 6-3 6-2.

In the 1^st round, The French player had a good straight sets win against Janvier (6-3 6-2). During the match, Erhard scored 63 points vs Janvier’s 41. Mathys was extremely aggressive to blast 23 winners.

Talking about the service games, Erhard blasted 3 aces and he committed only 1 double fault. Overall, Mathys Erhard was very efficient on serve to win 82% (23/28) of his 1st serve and 71% (12/17) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. The French player broke Janvier 4 times after converting 44% of his break points (4/9).

Erhard has a solid match record in the last 8 years having won 63% of his matches (233-138). 3-1 on clay in 2025. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this event, Erhard has a composed196-99 record in the last 8 years on clay.

The French player has a compiled 6-4 win-loss record in 2025, 3-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in the Kigali 2 Challenger

Mathys has never competed in this tournament before.

Luka Pavlovic

Ranked no. 346 (career-high), Luka reached the 2^nd round after beating Julien De Cuyper 6-1 6-3, Adrian Oetzbach 6-3 7-5 and Carlos Taberner 7-6(4) 6-2.

In the 1^st round, The French player had a good straight sets win against Taberner (7-6⁴ 6-2). During the match Pavlovic scored 83 points vs Taberner’s 71. The French player was exceptionally aggressive to blast 31 winners.

About the serving games, Pavlovic blasted 14 aces and he committed only 9 double faults. Luka Pavlovic was extremely effective on serve to win 91% (31/34) of his 1st serve and 54% (20/37) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Pavlovic broke Taberner twice after converting 29% of his break points (2/7).

Pavlovic has a composed 7-2 win-loss record in 2025, 7-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).

H2H Performance in the tournament

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Erhard	Pavlovic
Match played	1	3
Tot Set	2	6
Tot Games	17	58
Pts	63-41	210-156
Total Points	104	366
Winners	23	89
%Winners	37%	42%

Erhard played 1 match while Pavlovic competed in 3 matches. Pavlovic started his run from the qualifications while Erhard had a direct access to the main draw. Both players have not surrendered a single set in this event so far. Erhard has played 4 set(s) less than Pavlovic (2 vs 6). Therefore, Erhard played 41 games less than Pavlovic. The French player scored 23 winners (37% of the total points). On the other side, The French player struck 89 winners (42%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Erhard	Pavlovic
Aces	3	31
Avg per match	3	10.3
1st in	28/45	100/179
%1st in	62%	56%
1st pts	23/28	89/100
%1st pts	82%	89%
2nd pts	12/17	45/79
%2nd pts	71%	57%

Erhard scored 3 aces . Pavlovic struck 31 aces (10.3 per match). Erhard won 82% points on his first serve. He quite strong on his second serve to win 71% of the points. On the other side, Pavlovic won 89% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 57% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Erhard	Pavlovic
Won	4	8
Converted	4/9	8/17
% Converted	44%	47%
Conceded	1	11
Saved	0	11
% Saved	0%	100%
Times Broken	1	0

The French player broke his opponent 4 times with a 44% conversion rate. The French player lost his serve once and he saved 0% of the break points that he conceded. Luka broke his opponents 8 times with a 47% conversion rate. The French player was rock solid on his serve as he has never conceded a single service game after saving 11 break points.

Erhard
	R1 Janvier	Total
Score	6-3 6-2
Tot Set	2	2
Tot Games	17	17
pts	63-41	63-41
Total points	104	104
Winners	23	23
%Winners	37%	37%
SERVE
Aces	3	3
Double Faults	1	1
1st in	28/45	28/45
% 1st in	62%	62%
1st pts	23/28	23/28
% 1st pts	82%	82%
2nd pts	12/17	12/17
% 2nd pts	71%	71%
Breaks
Won	4	4
Converted	4/9	4/9
Converted %	44%	44%
Conceded	1	1
Saved	0/1	0
Saved %	0%	0%
Times Broken	1	1

Pavlovic
	Q1 De	Q3 Oetzbach	R1 Taberner	Total
Score	6-1 6-3	6-3 7-5	7-64 6-2
Tot Set	2	2	2	6
Tot Games	16	21	21	58
pts	57-29	70-56	83-71	210-156
Total points	86	126	154	366
Winners	22	36	31	89
%Winners	39%	51%	37%	42%
SERVE
Aces	8	9	14	31
Double Faults	1	3	9	13
1st in	24/36	42/72	34/71	100/179
% 1st in	67%	58%	48%	56%
1st pts	22/24	36/42	31/34	89/100
% 1st pts	92%	86%	91%	89%
2nd pts	10/12	15/30	20/37	45/79
% 2nd pts	83%	50%	54%	57%
Breaks
Won	4	2	2	8
Converted	4/8	2/2	2/7	8/17
Converted %	50%	100%	29%	47%
Conceded	0	4	7	11
Saved	0/0	4/4	7/7	11
Saved %	–	100%	100%	200%
Times Broken	0	0	0	0

Tennis Scores in Kigali 2 Challenger

• Guy Den OudenDen Ouden – Nicholas David IonelDavid Ionel (7-5 6-1) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Clement TaburTabur – Geoffrey BlancaneauxBlancaneaux (7-6¹ 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Calvin HemeryHemery – Corentin DenollyDenolly (6-3 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Max HoukesMax – Alex Marti PujolrasAlex (5-7 6-4 6-3) – See score progression

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Mathys ErhardErhard – Luka PavlovicPavlovic (1-0) – H2H and prediction
• Valentin RoyerRoyer – Franco AgamenoneAgamenone (1-0) – H2H and prediction
• Daniel MichalskiMichalski – Marco CecchinatoCecchinato (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Max HoukesHoukes – Clement TaburTabur (1-1) – H2H and prediction