Pablo Carreno-Busta and Alexis Galarneau will clash against each other in the qualifications of the BNP Paribas Open for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Tuesday at 4:00 pm on STADIUM 7. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Pablo Carreno-Busta who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Pablo Carreno-Busta is the pick to win this match.
Pablo Carreno-Busta -> 1.31
Alexis Galarneau -> 3.2
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Prediction and head to head Pablo Carreno-Busta vs. Alexis Galarneau
There is no head to head record between Pablo Carreno-Busta and Alexis Galarneau since this will be the first time that they will fight against each other in the main tour.
Pablo Carreno-Busta
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 41-28 | 25-10 | 14-14 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 10-12 | 7-6 | 2-4 | 1-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 2-5 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 37-25 | 19-8 | 11-9 | 5-5 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 38-18 | 14-8 | 17-4 | 5-4 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 112, Pablo reached the qualifications after defeating Zachary Svajda 1-6 6-3 7-6(7).
In the qualifications against Svajda, Carreno-Busta recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (1-6 6-3 7-67).During the match, Carreno-Busta scored less points (4) than Svajda. In fact, the world no. 112 won 92 points vs Svajda’s. That means that Carreno-Busta was more focused during the important points. Pablo was extremely aggressive to blast 39 winners.
Regarding the service games, Carreno-Busta managed to score 4 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Pablo Carreno-Busta lost the serve 4 times and he saved 4 break points. Furthermore, Carreno-Busta put 58% of his first serves in, winning 68% (39/57) of the points behind his 1st serve and 48% (20/42) on the 2nd serve. The Spaniard broke Svajda 3 times after converting 60% of his break points (3/5).
Carreno-Busta has a solid win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 60% of his matches (264-173). 12-4 on hard in 2025. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this event, Carreno-Busta has an aggregate 127-71 win-loss record in the last years on hard.
His best result of the year was winning the title the Tenerife 1 Challenger where he overcame Alejandro Moro Canas in the final 6-3 6-2 and the Tenerife 2 Challenger where he beat Filip Misolic in the final 6-3 6-2.
Carreno-Busta has a composed 13-5 win-loss record in 2025, 12-4 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Indian Wells
Alexis Galarneau
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 37-32 | 24-18 | 1-3 | 11-10 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 36-26 | 15-12 | 8-6 | 12-7 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 30-26 | 20-18 | 3-5 | 7-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 39-28 | 12-7 | 9-9 | 18-12 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 24-20 | 13-9 | 5-6 | 6-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 163, the Canadian got to the qualifications after beating Arthur Cazaux 6-4 4-6 6-4.
In the qualifications, The Canadian defeated Cazaux (6-4 4-6 6-4). During the match Galarneau scored 98 points vs Cazaux’s 96. The Canadian was quite aggressive to blast 40 winners.
Talking about serving, Galarneau recorded 2 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Alexis Galarneau lost the serve 3 times and he saved 4 break points. Furthermore, Galarneau put 63% of his first serves in, winning 66% (40/61) of the points behind his 1st serve and 53% (19/36) on the 2nd serve. Alexis broke Cazaux 4 times after converting 40% of his break points (4/10).
Alexis’s best result of the current season was getting to the semifinal in the Oeiras 2 Challenger,the Oeiras 3 Challenger and the Pune Challenger.
Alexis has a compiled 16-9 win-loss record in 2025, 10-5 on hard (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Carreno-Busta | Galarneau |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 1 |
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 |
| Tot Games | 29 | 30 |
| Pts | 92-96 | 98-96 |
| Total Points | 188 | 194 |
| Winners | 39 | 40 |
| %Winners | 42% | 41% |
Both Carreno-Busta and Galarneau played 1 match. Also both players started their run from the qualifications.Both players lost a set in the event. Pablo Carreno-Busta surrendered 1 set, while Alexis Galarneau dropped 1 set. Talking about their workload, Carreno-Busta and Galarneau have played the same amount of sets 3. However, Carreno-Busta played 1 game less than Galarneau. Carreno-Busta scored 39 winners (42% of the total points). On the other side, Galarneau bagged 40 winners (41%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Carreno-Busta | Galarneau |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 4 | 2 |
| Avg per match | 4 | 2 |
| 1st in | 57/99 | 61/97 |
| %1st in | 58% | 63% |
| 1st pts | 39/57 | 40/61 |
| %1st pts | 68% | 66% |
| 2nd pts | 20/42 | 19/36 |
| %2nd pts | 48% | 53% |
Carreno-Busta blasted 4 aces . Galarneau managed to score 2 aces . Carreno-Busta won 68% points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 48% of the points. On the other side, Galarneau won 66% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 53% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Carreno-Busta | Galarneau |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 3 | 4 |
| Converted | 3/5 | 4/10 |
| % Converted | 60% | 40% |
| Conceded | 8 | 7 |
| Saved | 4 | 4 |
| % Saved | 50% | 57% |
| Times Broken | 4 | 3 |
Carreno-Busta broke his opponent 3 times with a 60% conversion rate. Carreno-Busta conceded his serve 4 times and he saved 50% of the break points that he conceded. Alexis broke his opponent 4 times with a 40% conversion rate. Alexis conceded his serve 3 times and he saved 57% of the break points that he conceded.
| Carreno-Busta | |||
| Q1 Svajda |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 1-6 6-3 7-67 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | |
| Tot Games | 29 | 29 | |
| pts | 92-96 | 92-96 | |
| Total points | 188 | 188 | |
| Winners | 39 | 39 | |
| %Winners | 42% | 42% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 4 | 4 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 2 | |
| 1st in | 57/99 | 57/99 | |
| % 1st in | 58% | 58% | |
| 1st pts | 39/57 | 39/57 | |
| % 1st pts | 68% | 68% | |
| 2nd pts | 20/42 | 20/42 | |
| % 2nd pts | 48% | 48% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 3 | 3 | |
| Converted | 3/5 | 3/5 | |
| Converted % | 60% | 60% | |
| Conceded | 8 | 8 | |
| Saved | 4/8 | 4 | |
| Saved % | 50% | 50% | |
| Times Broken | 4 | 4 | |
| Galarneau | |||
| Q1 Cazaux |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 4-6 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | |
| Tot Games | 30 | 30 | |
| pts | 98-96 | 98-96 | |
| Total points | 194 | 194 | |
| Winners | 40 | 40 | |
| %Winners | 41% | 41% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 2 | 2 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 2 | |
| 1st in | 61/97 | 61/97 | |
| % 1st in | 63% | 63% | |
| 1st pts | 40/61 | 40/61 | |
| % 1st pts | 66% | 66% | |
| 2nd pts | 19/36 | 19/36 | |
| % 2nd pts | 53% | 53% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 4 | 4 | |
| Converted | 4/10 | 4/10 | |
| Converted % | 40% | 40% | |
| Conceded | 7 | 7 | |
| Saved | 4/7 | 4 | |
| Saved % | 57% | 57% | |
| Times Broken | 3 | 3 | |
Head 2 Head
LWLLWWWWLW
LLLWWWLLLL 
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