Emma Navarro and Emiliana Arango will clash against each other in the final of the Merida Open Akron for the 2^nd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Sunday at 5:00 pm on AKRON STADIUM. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Emma Navarro who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Emma Navarro is the pick to win this match.
Emma Navarro -> 1.26
Emiliana Arango -> 3.85

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Prediction and head to head Emma Navarro vs. Emiliana Arango

This will be the 2^nd time that Emma Navarro and Emiliana Arango play each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Navarro (see full H2H stats), but they have never competed against each other on hard.

The last time that they locked horns, Navarro won 6-3 6-1 in the semifinal in the W25 Naples back in 2023.

Emma Navarro

Ranked no. 10, Emma got to the final after defeating Unknown Player bye, Petra Martic 6-1 6-2, Zeynep Sonmez 6-4 6-2 and Elina Avanesyan 6-3 6-3.

In the semifinal, The American had a good straight sets win against Avanesyan (6-3 6-3). During the match, Navarro scored 69 points vs Avanesyan’s 48. The American was pretty aggressive to blast 28 winners.

Talking about the service games, Navarro couldn’t to score even 1 ace throughout the encounter and she committed only 2 double faults. Emma Navarro lost the serve twice and she saved 5 break points. Furthermore, Navarro put 75% of her first serves in, winning 68% (28/41) of the points behind her 1st serve and 50% (7/14) on the 2nd serve. Navarro broke Avanesyan 5 times after converting 56% of her break points (5/9).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Emma hasn’t dropped yet a set in this event to win 61% of the points she played.

Navarro has a solid record in the last 9 years having won 65% of her matches (212-116). 9-5 on hard in 2025. Regarding her performance on the same surface of this competition, Navarro has a compiled80-55 record in the last 9 years on hard.

Emma’s best result of the season was reaching the semifinal in Merida.

Navarro has a composed 9-5 win-loss record in 2025, 9-5 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Merida

The American has never competed in this tournament before.

Emiliana Arango

Ranked no. 133, the Colombian got to the final after beating Katarzyna Kawa 7-5 6-2, Maria Lourdes Carle 6-2 6-3, Francesca Jones 3-6 6-3 3-4 ret., Rebecca Sramkova 5-7 6-3 6-0 and Daria Saville 6-3 4-6 6-2.

In the semifinal, The Colombian defeated Gavrilova (6-3 4-6 6-2). During the match Arango scored 100 points vs Gavrilova’s 91. The Colombian was quite aggressive to blast 42 winners.

About the serving games, Arango was unable to score even 1 ace for the entire match and she committed only 4 double faults. Emiliana Arango lost the serve 3 times and she saved 5 break points. Furthermore, Arango put 76% of her first serves in, winning 66% (42/64) of the points behind her 1st serve and 40% (8/20) on the 2nd serve. Arango broke Gavrilova 6 times after converting 35% of her break points (6/17).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Colombian started her run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, she has conceded 3 set in the tournament to win 56% of the points she played.

Her best result of the current season was winning the title the Cancun where she overcame Carson Branstine in the final 6-2 6-1.

The Colombian has a composed 14-3 win-loss record in 2025, 12-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Navarro	Arango
Match played	3	6
Tot Set	6	17
Tot Games	51	144
Pts	184-120	561-461
Total Points	304	1022
Winners	74	207
%Winners	40%	37%

Navarro played 3 matches while Arango competed in 6 matches. Arango started her run from the qualifications while Navarro had a direct access to the main draw. At the moment, Emiliana Arango surrendered 5 sets while Emma Navarro hasn’t conceded a set so far. Navarro has played 11 set(s) less than Arango (6 vs 17). Therefore, Navarro played 93 games less than Arango. Navarro scored 74 winners (40% of the total points). On the other side, The Colombian struck 207 winners (37%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Navarro	Arango
Aces	0	3
Avg per match	0	0.5
1st in	109/153	346/502
%1st in	71%	69%
1st pts	74/109	207/346
%1st pts	68%	60%
2nd pts	22/44	66/156
%2nd pts	50%	42%

Navarro didn’t manage to fire a single ace to far. Arango blasted 3 aces (0.5 per match). Navarro won 68% points on her first serve. She pretty effective on her second serve to win 50% of the points. On the other side, Arango won 60% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 42% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Navarro	Arango
Won	16	49
Converted	16/24	49/73
% Converted	67%	67%
Conceded	14	64
Saved	8	30
% Saved	57%	47%
Times Broken	6	34

The American broke her opponents 16 times with a 67% conversion rate. Emma surrendered her serve 6 times and she saved 57% of the break points that she conceded. Arango broke her opponents 49 times with a 67% conversion rate. Emiliana conceded her serve 34 times and she saved 47% of the break points that she conceded.

Navarro
	R2 Martic	1/4 Sonmez	1/2 Avanesyan	Total
Score	6-1 6-2	6-4 6-2	6-3 6-3
Tot Set	2	2	2	6
Tot Games	15	18	18	51
pts	56-28	59-44	69-48	184-120
Total points	84	103	117	304
Winners	26	20	28	74
%Winners	46%	34%	41%	40%
SERVE
Aces	0	0	0	0
Double Faults	0	0	2	2
1st in	32/49	36/49	41/55	109/153
% 1st in	65%	73%	75%	71%
1st pts	26/32	20/36	28/41	74/109
% 1st pts	81%	56%	68%	68%
2nd pts	10/17	5/13	7/14	22/44
% 2nd pts	59%	38%	50%	50%
Breaks
Won	4	7	5	16
Converted	4/5	7/10	5/9	16/24
Converted %	80%	70%	56%	67%
Conceded	2	5	7	14
Saved	2/2	1/5	5/7	8
Saved %	100%	20%	71%	64%
Times Broken	0	4	2	6

Arango
	Q1 Kawa	Q3 Lourdes	R1 Lourdes	R2 Jones	1/4 Sramkova	1/2 Gavrilova	Total
Score	7-5 6-2	6-2 5-7 6-2	6-2 6-3	3-6 6-3 3-4 ret.	5-7 6-3 6-0	6-3 4-6 6-2
Tot Set	2	3	2	3	3	3	16
Tot Games	20	28	17	25	27	27	144
pts	75-55	104-80	104-80	82-78	96-77	100-91	561-461
Total points	130	184	184	160	173	191	1022
Winners	26	38	38	26	37	42	207
%Winners	35%	37%	37%	32%	39%	42%	37%
SERVE
Aces	0	0	0	2	1	0	3
Double Faults	0	3	3	5	3	4	18
1st in	43/57	65/92	65/92	47/77	62/100	64/84	346/502
% 1st in	75%	71%	71%	61%	62%	76%	69%
1st pts	26/43	38/65	38/65	26/47	37/62	42/64	207/346
% 1st pts	60%	58%	58%	55%	60%	66%	60%
2nd pts	9/14	9/27	9/27	15/30	16/38	8/20	66/156
% 2nd pts	64%	33%	33%	50%	42%	40%	42%
Breaks
Won	6	11	11	6	9	6	49
Converted	6/12	11/12	11/12	6/7	9/13	6/17	49/73
Converted %	50%	92%	92%	86%	69%	35%	67%
Conceded	5	11	11	11	18	8	64
Saved	2/5	3/11	3/11	5/11	12/18	5/8	30
Saved %	40%	27%	27%	45%	67%	63%	90%
Times Broken	3	8	8	6	6	3	34

Tennis Scores in Merida

• Renzo OlivoOlivo – Alessandro GiannessiGiannessi (5-7 7-6⁴ 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Emma NavarroNavarro – Emiliana ArangoArango (1-0) – H2H and prediction