Jessica Pegula and Mccartney Kessler will fight against each other in the final of the ATX Open for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Sunday at 1:30 pm on CENTER COURT. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Jessica Pegula who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Jessica Pegula is the pick to win this match.
Jessica Pegula -> 1.32
Mccartney Kessler -> 3.38
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Prediction and head to head Jessica Pegula vs. Mccartney Kessler
There is no head to head record between Jessica Pegula and Mccartney Kessler since this will be the first time that they will play each other in the main tour.
Jessica Pegula
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 21-6 | 20-6 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 39-16 | 29-9 | 4-2 | 0-2 | 6-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 59-18 | 45-12 | 8-4 | 0-0 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 42-21 | 28-15 | 11-4 | 1-1 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 39-19 | 29-12 | 6-4 | 0-0 | 4-3 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 4, Pegula got to the final after beating Arantxa Rus 6-3 3-2 ret., Nuria Parrizas-Diaz 6-1 6-3, Anna Blinkova 6-2 6-2 and Ajla Tomljanovic 6-1 4-6 6-3.
In the semifinal, Jessica defeated Tomljanovic (6-1 4-6 6-3). During the match, Pegula scored 96 points vs Tomljanovic’s 84. Jessica was quite aggressive to blast 33 winners.
Talking about the service games, Pegula managed to score 4 aces and she committed only 4 double faults. Jessica Pegula lost the serve 4 times and she saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Pegula put 54% of her first serves in, winning 69% (33/48) of the points behind her 1st serve and 46% (19/41) on the 2nd serve. Jessica broke Tomljanovic 7 times after converting 44% of her break points (7/16).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Pegula has surrendered 1 set in this competition to conquer 58% of the points she played.
Pegula has a solid match record in the last 10 years having won 66% of her matches (316-161). 12-4 on hard in 2025. Regarding her performance on the same surface of this event, Pegula has an aggregate 216-94 win-loss record in the last years on hard.
Jessica’s best result of the current season was getting to the final in Adelaide.
The American has an aggregate 12-4 win-loss record in 2025, 12-4 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Austin
The American has never competed in this tournament before.
Mccartney Kessler
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 17-8 | 17-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 39-22 | 28-13 | 2-6 | 5-0 | 4-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 44-24 | 21-12 | 11-7 | 12-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 8-2 | 6-2 | 2-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 10-5 | 10-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 56, the American reached the final after defeating Viktorija Golubic 6-2 7-5, Cristina Bucsa 5-7 6-3 7-6(4), Sorana Cirstea 5-7 6-4 6-1 and Greetje Minnen 7-5 6-4.
In the semifinal, Kessler had a good straight sets win against Minnen (7-5 6-4). During the match Kessler scored 80 points vs Minnen’s 67. Mccartney was extremely aggressive to blast 23 winners.
Talking about serving, Kessler bagged 3 aces and she committed only 2 double faults. Mccartney Kessler lost the serve 3 times and she saved 1 break points. Furthermore, Kessler put 63% of her first serves in, winning 64% (23/36) of the points behind her 1st serve and 67% (14/21) on the 2nd serve. The American broke Minnen 5 times after converting 28% of her break points (5/18).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Mccartney has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points she played.
Her best result of the current season was winning the title in Hobart where she overcame Elise Mertens in the final 6-4 3-6 6-0.
The American has an aggregate 14-5 win-loss record in 2025, 14-5 on hard (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Pegula | Kessler |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 4 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 10 | 10 |
| Tot Games | 72 | 105 |
| Pts | 266-195 | 387-341 |
| Total Points | 461 | 728 |
| Winners | 92 | 149 |
| %Winners | 35% | 39% |
Both Pegula and Kessler played 4 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Jessica Pegula conceded 1 set, while Mccartney Kessler dropped 2 sets. Talking about their workload, Pegula and Kessler have played the same amount of sets 10. However, Pegula played 33 games less than Kessler. Pegula scored 92 winners (35% of the total points). On the other side, Kessler fired 149 winners (39%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Pegula | Kessler |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 14 | 11 |
| Avg per match | 3.5 | 2.8 |
| 1st in | 122/222 | 227/345 |
| %1st in | 55% | 66% |
| 1st pts | 92/122 | 149/227 |
| %1st pts | 75% | 66% |
| 2nd pts | 53/100 | 54/118 |
| %2nd pts | 53% | 46% |
Pegula fired 14 aces (3.5 per match). Kessler blasted 11 aces (2.8 per match). Pegula won 75% points on her first serve. She quite strong on her second serve to win 53% of the points. On the other side, Kessler won 66% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 46% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Pegula | Kessler |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 19 | 24 |
| Converted | 19/35 | 24/57 |
| % Converted | 54% | 42% |
| Conceded | 12 | 33 |
| Saved | 6 | 18 |
| % Saved | 50% | 55% |
| Times Broken | 6 | 15 |
Jessica broke her opponents 19 times with a 54% conversion rate. The American conceded her serve 6 times and she saved 50% of the break points that she conceded. Kessler broke her opponents 24 times with a 42% conversion rate. Mccartney conceded her serve 15 times and she saved 55% of the break points that she conceded.
| Pegula | ||||||
| R1 Rus |
R2 Parrizas-Diaz |
1/4 Blinkova |
1/2 Tomljanovic |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 3-2 ret. | 6-1 6-3 | 6-2 6-2 | 6-1 4-6 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | |
| Tot Games | 14 | 16 | 16 | 26 | 72 | |
| pts | 50-38 | 61-39 | 59-34 | 96-84 | 266-195 | |
| Total points | 88 | 100 | 93 | 180 | 461 | |
| Winners | 21 | 18 | 20 | 33 | 92 | |
| %Winners | 42% | 30% | 34% | 34% | 35% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 14 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 12 | |
| 1st in | 28/46 | 20/41 | 26/46 | 48/89 | 122/222 | |
| % 1st in | 61% | 49% | 57% | 54% | 55% | |
| 1st pts | 21/28 | 18/20 | 20/26 | 33/48 | 92/122 | |
| % 1st pts | 75% | 90% | 77% | 69% | 75% | |
| 2nd pts | 9/18 | 14/21 | 11/20 | 19/41 | 53/100 | |
| % 2nd pts | 50% | 67% | 55% | 46% | 53% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 19 | |
| Converted | 3/5 | 4/7 | 5/7 | 7/16 | 19/35 | |
| Converted % | 60% | 57% | 71% | 44% | 54% | |
| Conceded | 5 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 12 | |
| Saved | 4/5 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 2/6 | 6 | |
| Saved % | 80% | – | 0% | 33% | 28% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | |
| Kessler | ||||||
| R1 Golubic |
R2 Bucsa |
1/4 Cirstea |
1/2 Minnen |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 7-5 | 5-7 6-3 7-64 | 5-7 6-4 6-1 | 7-5 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 10 | |
| Tot Games | 20 | 34 | 29 | 22 | 105 | |
| pts | 79-67 | 119-113 | 109-94 | 80-67 | 387-341 | |
| Total points | 146 | 232 | 203 | 147 | 728 | |
| Winners | 30 | 51 | 45 | 23 | 149 | |
| %Winners | 38% | 43% | 41% | 29% | 39% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 14 | |
| 1st in | 45/70 | 82/119 | 64/99 | 36/57 | 227/345 | |
| % 1st in | 64% | 69% | 65% | 63% | 66% | |
| 1st pts | 30/45 | 51/82 | 45/64 | 23/36 | 149/227 | |
| % 1st pts | 67% | 62% | 70% | 64% | 66% | |
| 2nd pts | 11/25 | 13/37 | 16/35 | 14/21 | 54/118 | |
| % 2nd pts | 44% | 35% | 46% | 67% | 46% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 6 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 24 | |
| Converted | 6/12 | 7/12 | 6/15 | 5/18 | 24/57 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 58% | 40% | 28% | 42% | |
| Conceded | 7 | 14 | 8 | 4 | 33 | |
| Saved | 4/7 | 8/14 | 5/8 | 1/4 | 18 | |
| Saved % | 57% | 57% | 63% | 25% | 51% | |
| Times Broken | 3 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 15 | |
Head 2 Head
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LWWLWLWWWW Tennis Scores in Austin
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Upcoming matches in the draw
- Jessica PegulaPegula – Mccartney KesslerKessler (0-0) – H2H and prediction
