Tomas Machac and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina will play each other in the final of the Abierto Mexicano Telcel for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Saturday at 9:00 pm on ESTADIO. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Tomas Machac who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Tomas Machac is the pick to win this match.
Tomas Machac -> 1.59
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina -> 2.36
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Prediction and head to head Tomas Machac vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
This will be the 2nd time that Tomas Machac and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina fight against each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Machac (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.
The last time that they played, Machac won 1-6 7-6(3) 6-4 in the 2nd round in Shanghai back in 2024.
Tomas Machac
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 18-11 | 11-4 | 2-5 | 3-1 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 37-24 | 22-11 | 9-5 | 5-6 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 52-27 | 15-10 | 16-11 | 18-5 | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 47-19 | 24-6 | 5-2 | 18-10 | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| 2021 | 28-19 | 5-4 | 5-4 | 12-6 | 2-3 | 4-2 |
Ranked no. 25, Machac reached the final after beating Jakub Mensik 6-4 2-6 6-3, Daniel Altmaier 7-6(3) 6-1, Learner Tien 6-3 7-5 and Brandon Nakashima 6-4 1-6 6-4.
In the semifinal, Tomas defeated Nakashima (6-4 1-6 6-4).During the match, Machac scored less points (4) than Nakashima. In fact, the world no. 25 won 79 points vs Nakashima’s. That means that Machac was more focused during the important points. Tomas was pretty aggressive to blast 33 winners.
Talking about the service games, Machac blasted 4 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Tomas Machac lost the serve 3 times and he saved 5 break points. Furthermore, Machac put 59% of his first serves in, winning 70% (33/47) of the points behind his 1st serve and 56% (18/32) on the 2nd serve. Tomas broke Nakashima 3 times after converting 50% of his break points (3/6).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Machac has dropped 2 set in this event to win 53% of the points he played.
Machac has a solid match record in the last 9 years having won 67% of his matches (268-135). 8-3 on hard in 2025. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this event, Machac has an overall80-36 match record in the last 9 years on hard.
Tomas’s best result of the current year was getting to the semifinal in Australia and Acapulco.
The Czech has a composed 11-4 win-loss record in 2025, 8-3 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Acapulco
Machac has never competed in this tournament before.
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
13 - 6win/loss
28
21
WWLWLWLLWL | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 25-14 | 13-7 | 9-6 | 1-1 | 2-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 20-22 | 13-12 | 2-5 | 5-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 32-28 | 18-11 | 9-8 | 3-6 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 21-26 | 7-9 | 11-8 | 0-6 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 30-25 | 4-6 | 16-7 | 9-10 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 48, Alejandro got to the final after beating Mattia Bellucci 1-6 7-6(6) 6-2, Frances Tiafoe 6-3 6-7(6) 6-3, Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez 6-2 6-2 and Denis Shapovalov 7-6(3) 7-6(1).
In the semifinal, Davidovich Fokina had a good straight sets win against Shapovalov (7-63 7-61). During the match Davidovich Fokina scored 92 points vs Shapovalov’s 83. Davidovich Fokina was very aggressive to blast 37 winners.
About the serving games, Davidovich Fokina was unable to score even 1 ace for the entire match and he committed only 2 double faults. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina lost the serve 4 times and he saved 3 break points. Furthermore, Davidovich Fokina put 70% of his first serves in, winning 65% (37/57) of the points behind his 1st serve and 50% (12/24) on the 2nd serve. Alejandro broke Shapovalov 4 times after converting 40% of his break points (4/10).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Spaniard has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 54% of the points he played.
Alejandro’s best result of the year was reaching the final in Delray Beach.
Davidovich Fokina has a composed 13-5 win-loss record in 2025, 12-4 on hard (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Machac | Davidovich Fokina |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 4 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 10 | 10 |
| Tot Games | 95 | 101 |
| Pts | 321-281 | 339-290 |
| Total Points | 602 | 629 |
| Winners | 122 | 151 |
| %Winners | 38% | 45% |
Both Machac and Davidovich Fokina played 4 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Tomas Machac lost 2 sets, while Alejandro Davidovich Fokina lost 2 sets. Talking about their workload, Machac and Davidovich Fokina have played the same amount of sets 10. However, Machac played 6 games less than Davidovich Fokina. Machac scored 122 winners (38% of the total points). On the other side, Alejandro bagged 151 winners (45%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Machac | Davidovich Fokina |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 12 | 16 |
| Avg per match | 3 | 4 |
| 1st in | 170/286 | 208/298 |
| %1st in | 59% | 70% |
| 1st pts | 122/170 | 151/208 |
| %1st pts | 72% | 73% |
| 2nd pts | 60/116 | 46/90 |
| %2nd pts | 52% | 51% |
Machac made 12 aces (3 per match). Davidovich Fokina scored 16 aces (4 per match). Machac won 72% points on his first serve. He quite strong on his second serve to win 52% of the points. On the other side, Davidovich Fokina won 73% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 51% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Machac | Davidovich Fokina |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 17 | 16 |
| Converted | 17/36 | 16/41 |
| % Converted | 47% | 39% |
| Conceded | 21 | 20 |
| Saved | 10 | 10 |
| % Saved | 48% | 50% |
| Times Broken | 11 | 10 |
Tomas broke his opponents 17 times with a 47% conversion rate. The Czech surrendered his serve 11 times and he saved 48% of the break points that he conceded. Alejandro broke his opponents 16 times with a 39% conversion rate. Davidovich Fokina conceded his serve 10 times and he saved 50% of the break points that he conceded.
| Machac | ||||||
| R1 Mensik |
R2 Altmaier |
1/4 Tien |
1/2 Nakashima |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 2-6 6-3 | 7-63 6-1 | 6-3 7-5 | 6-4 1-6 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | |
| Tot Games | 27 | 20 | 21 | 27 | 95 | |
| pts | 91-80 | 74-56 | 77-62 | 79-83 | 321-281 | |
| Total points | 171 | 130 | 139 | 162 | 602 | |
| Winners | 34 | 33 | 22 | 33 | 122 | |
| %Winners | 37% | 45% | 29% | 42% | 38% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 2 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 12 | |
| Double Faults | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 | |
| 1st in | 49/82 | 42/69 | 32/56 | 47/79 | 170/286 | |
| % 1st in | 60% | 61% | 57% | 59% | 59% | |
| 1st pts | 34/49 | 33/42 | 22/32 | 33/47 | 122/170 | |
| % 1st pts | 69% | 79% | 69% | 70% | 72% | |
| 2nd pts | 15/33 | 15/27 | 12/24 | 18/32 | 60/116 | |
| % 2nd pts | 45% | 56% | 50% | 56% | 52% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 5 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 17 | |
| Converted | 5/11 | 3/5 | 6/14 | 3/6 | 17/36 | |
| Converted % | 45% | 60% | 43% | 50% | 47% | |
| Conceded | 7 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 21 | |
| Saved | 3/7 | 1/2 | 1/4 | 5/8 | 10 | |
| Saved % | 43% | 50% | 25% | 63% | 45% | |
| Times Broken | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 11 | |
| Davidovich Fokina | ||||||
| R1 Bellucci |
R2 Tiafoe |
1/4 Pacheco Mendez |
1/2 Shapovalov |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 1-6 7-66 6-2 | 6-3 6-76 6-3 | 6-2 6-2 | 7-63 7-61 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10 | |
| Tot Games | 28 | 31 | 16 | 26 | 101 | |
| pts | 87-79 | 104-90 | 56-38 | 92-83 | 339-290 | |
| Total points | 166 | 194 | 94 | 175 | 629 | |
| Winners | 38 | 51 | 25 | 37 | 151 | |
| %Winners | 44% | 49% | 45% | 40% | 45% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 5 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 16 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 | |
| 1st in | 50/74 | 69/96 | 32/47 | 57/81 | 208/298 | |
| % 1st in | 68% | 72% | 68% | 70% | 70% | |
| 1st pts | 38/50 | 51/69 | 25/32 | 37/57 | 151/208 | |
| % 1st pts | 76% | 74% | 78% | 65% | 73% | |
| 2nd pts | 14/24 | 14/27 | 6/15 | 12/24 | 46/90 | |
| % 2nd pts | 58% | 52% | 40% | 50% | 51% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 2 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 16 | |
| Converted | 2/7 | 5/15 | 5/9 | 4/10 | 16/41 | |
| Converted % | 29% | 33% | 56% | 40% | 39% | |
| Conceded | 5 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 20 | |
| Saved | 3/5 | 3/6 | 1/2 | 3/7 | 10 | |
| Saved % | 60% | 50% | 50% | 43% | 51% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 | |
Head 2 Head
LWWLLLWLLW
WWLWLWLLWL 
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Tomas MachacMachac – Alejandro Davidovich FokinaDavidovich Fokina (1-0) – H2H and prediction
