Sebastian Baez and Camilo Ugo Carabelli will clash against each other in the semifinal of the Movistar Chile Open for the 8th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Saturday at 8:30 pm on COURT JAIME FILLOL. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Sebastian Baez who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Sebastian Baez is the pick to win this match.
Sebastian Baez -> 1.42
Camilo Ugo Carabelli -> 2.86
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Prediction and head to head Sebastian Baez vs. Camilo Ugo Carabelli
This will be the 8th time that Sebastian Baez and Camilo Ugo Carabelli square off. The head to head is 5-2 for Baez (see full H2H stats), 5-2 on clay.
The last time that they played each other, Baez won 3-6 6-1 6-1 in the semifinal in Rio de janeiro back in February 2025.
Highlights Sebastian Baez vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli – Rio de janeiro 22-February-2025
Sebastian Baez
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 12-6 | 0-3 | 12-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 31-28 | 5-9 | 26-11 | 0-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 33-27 | 9-7 | 22-13 | 1-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 35-32 | 6-12 | 27-12 | 0-6 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 56-16 | 2-1 | 52-12 | 2-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 31, Baez reached the semifinal after defeating Unknown Player bye, Francisco Comesana 6-3 5-7 7-6(5) and Damir Dzumhur 6-4 6-4.
In the quarter, The Argentine had a good straight sets win against Dzumhur (6-4 6-4). During the match, Baez scored 70 points vs Dzumhur’s 61. The Argentine was extremely aggressive to blast 25 winners.
Talking about the service games, Baez blasted 2 aces and he was quite consistent in conceding no double faults. Sebastian Baez lost the serve 4 times and he saved 3 break points. Furthermore, Baez put 65% of his first serves in, winning 58% (25/43) of the points behind his 1st serve and 39% (9/23) on the 2nd serve. Baez broke Dzumhur 6 times after converting 60% of his break points (6/10).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Baez has surrendered 1 set in this tournament to conquer 52% of the points he played.
Baez has a solid record in the last 10 years having won 63% of his matches (262-153). 11-2 on clay in 2025. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Baez has an aggregate 223-91 win-loss record in the last years on clay.
His best result of the current season was winning the title in Rio de Janeiro where he defeated Alexandre Muller in the final 6-2 6-3.
Baez has an overall 11-4 win-loss record in 2025, 11-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Santiago
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
14 - 6win/loss
65
61
LWLWWWLWWW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 15-6 | 1-1 | 14-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 58-30 | 6-5 | 52-24 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 41-26 | 0-2 | 41-24 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 39-24 | 3-4 | 36-19 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 43-24 | 4-2 | 39-22 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 69 (career-high), Ugo got to the semifinal after beating Nicolas Jarry 5-7 6-3 7-6(9), Thiago Moura Monteiro 4-6 7-6(2) 6-3 and Federico Coria 6-4 6-3.
In the quarter, Ugo had a good straight sets win against Coria (6-4 6-3). During the match Ugo scored 68 points vs Coria’s 51. Camilo was extremely aggressive to blast 25 winners.
About the serving games, Ugo recorded 2 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Camilo Ugo Carabelli lost the serve 4 times and he saved 1 break points. Furthermore, Ugo put 68% of his first serves in, winning 66% (25/38) of the points behind his 1st serve and 44% (8/18) on the 2nd serve. Camilo broke Coria 6 times after converting 40% of his break points (6/15).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Ugo has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 52% of the points he played.
His best result of the current season was conquering the title the Rosario Challenger where he defeated Hugo Dellien in the final 3-6 6-3 6-2.
Ugo has a compiled 14-5 win-loss record in 2025, 14-4 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Santiago
Previously, his best result was reaching the 1st round in 2023. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Baez | Ugo |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 3 |
| Tot Set | 5 | 8 |
| Tot Games | 54 | 85 |
| Pts | 183-169 | 286-260 |
| Total Points | 352 | 546 |
| Winners | 72 | 138 |
| %Winners | 39% | 48% |
Baez played 2 matches while Ugo competed in 3 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Sebastian Baez conceded 1 set, while Camilo Ugo Carabelli lost 2 sets. Baez has played 3 set(s) less than Ugo (5 vs 8). Therefore, Baez played 31 games less than Ugo. Baez scored 72 winners (39% of the total points). On the other side, Ugo blasted 138 winners (48%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Baez | Ugo |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 3 | 12 |
| Avg per match | 1.5 | 4 |
| 1st in | 113/166 | 178/271 |
| %1st in | 68% | 66% |
| 1st pts | 72/113 | 138/178 |
| %1st pts | 64% | 78% |
| 2nd pts | 26/53 | 44/93 |
| %2nd pts | 49% | 47% |
Baez made 3 aces (1.5 per match). Ugo struck 12 aces (4 per match). Baez won 64% points on his first serve. He very solid his second serve to win 49% of the points. On the other side, Ugo won 78% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 47% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Baez | Ugo |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 10 | 9 |
| Converted | 10/23 | 9/26 |
| % Converted | 43% | 35% |
| Conceded | 11 | 19 |
| Saved | 4 | 13 |
| % Saved | 36% | 68% |
| Times Broken | 7 | 6 |
Baez broke his opponents 10 times with a 43% conversion rate. The Argentine conceded his serve 7 times and he saved 36% of the break points that he conceded. Camilo broke his opponents 9 times with a 35% conversion rate. The Argentine conceded his serve 6 times and he saved 68% of the break points that he conceded.
| Baez | ||||
| R2 Comesana |
1/4 Dzumhur |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 5-7 7-65 | 6-4 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 5 | |
| Tot Games | 34 | 20 | 54 | |
| pts | 113-108 | 70-61 | 183-169 | |
| Total points | 221 | 131 | 352 | |
| Winners | 47 | 25 | 72 | |
| %Winners | 42% | 36% | 39% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| 1st in | 70/100 | 43/66 | 113/166 | |
| % 1st in | 70% | 65% | 68% | |
| 1st pts | 47/70 | 25/43 | 72/113 | |
| % 1st pts | 67% | 58% | 64% | |
| 2nd pts | 17/30 | 9/23 | 26/53 | |
| % 2nd pts | 57% | 39% | 49% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 4 | 6 | 10 | |
| Converted | 4/13 | 6/10 | 10/23 | |
| Converted % | 31% | 60% | 43% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 7 | 11 | |
| Saved | 1/4 | 3/7 | 4 | |
| Saved % | 25% | 43% | 34% | |
| Times Broken | 3 | 4 | 7 | |
| Ugo | |||||
| R1 Jarry |
R2 Moura Monteiro |
1/4 Coria |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 5-7 6-3 7-69 | 4-6 7-62 6-3 | 6-4 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 | |
| Tot Games | 34 | 32 | 19 | 85 | |
| pts | 116-111 | 102-98 | 68-51 | 286-260 | |
| Total points | 227 | 200 | 119 | 546 | |
| Winners | 56 | 57 | 25 | 138 | |
| %Winners | 48% | 56% | 37% | 48% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 3 | 7 | 2 | 12 | |
| Double Faults | 4 | 6 | 2 | 12 | |
| 1st in | 73/119 | 67/96 | 38/56 | 178/271 | |
| % 1st in | 61% | 70% | 68% | 66% | |
| 1st pts | 56/73 | 57/67 | 25/38 | 138/178 | |
| % 1st pts | 77% | 85% | 66% | 78% | |
| 2nd pts | 27/46 | 9/29 | 8/18 | 44/93 | |
| % 2nd pts | 59% | 31% | 44% | 47% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 1 | 2 | 6 | 9 | |
| Converted | 1/3 | 2/8 | 6/15 | 9/26 | |
| Converted % | 33% | 25% | 40% | 35% | |
| Conceded | 7 | 7 | 5 | 19 | |
| Saved | 6/7 | 6/7 | 1/5 | 13 | |
| Saved % | 86% | 86% | 20% | 96% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | |
Head 2 Head
LLWWWWWWWW
WLWWWLWWWL Tennis Scores in Santiago
- Francisco CerundoloCerundolo – Tomas Martin EtcheverryMartin Etcheverry (4-6 6-3 7-5) – See score progression
- Sebastian BaezBaez – Damir DzumhurDzumhur (6-4 6-4) – See score progression
- Laslo DjereDjere – Jaime FariaFaria (7-65 4-6 6-4) – See score progression
- Camilo Ugo CarabelliUgo Carabelli – Federico CoriaCoria (6-4 6-3) – See score progression
- Nicolas Barrientos/Rithvik Choudary BollipalliBarrientos/Rithvik Choudary Bollipalli – Marcelo Demoliner/Marcelo ZormannDemoliner/Marcelo Zormann (3-6 7-62 10-8) – See score progression
- Maximo Gonzalez/Andres MolteniGonzalez/Andres Molteni – Tomas Barrios Vera/Ignacio BuseBarrios Vera/Ignacio Buse (2-6 6-4 10-5) – See score progression
- Guido Andreozzi/Theo ArribageAndreozzi/Theo Arribage – Gregoire Jacq/Orlando LuzJacq/Orlando Luz (7-62 6-3) – See score progression
- Ryan Seggerman/John-Patrick SmithSeggerman/John-Patrick Smith – Francisco Cabral/Jean-Julien RojerCabral/Jean-Julien Rojer (7-63 7-65) – See score progression
- Sebastian BaezBaez – Damir DzumhurDzumhur (6-4 6-4) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Francisco CerundoloCerundolo – Laslo DjereDjere (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Sebastian BaezBaez – Camilo Ugo CarabelliUgo Carabelli (5-2) – H2H and prediction
