Denis Shapovalov and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina will square off in the semifinal of the Abierto Mexicano Telcel for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Friday at 8:30 pm on ESTADIO. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Denis Shapovalov who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Denis Shapovalov is the pick to win this match.
Denis Shapovalov -> 1.48
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina -> 2.65
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Prediction and head to head Denis Shapovalov vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
This will be the 2nd time that Denis Shapovalov and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina clash against each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Shapovalov (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.
The last time that they squared off, Shapovalov won 4-6 6-4 6-2 in the 2nd round in Indian wells back in 2022.
Highlights Denis Shapovalov vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina – Indian wells 12-March-2022
Denis Shapovalov
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 13-10 | 7-6 | 1-4 | 5-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 33-25 | 9-10 | 5-6 | 16-6 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 13-13 | 6-6 | 3-3 | 0-1 | 4-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 34-26 | 22-12 | 4-4 | 7-6 | 1-4 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 30-23 | 11-11 | 7-6 | 4-3 | 8-3 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 32, the Canadian reached the semifinal after beating Nishesh Basavareddy 7-5 6-2, Alex Michelsen 6-4 6-3 and Marcos Giron 4-6 6-3 6-2.
In the quarter against Giron, Shapovalov recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (4-6 6-3 6-2). During the match, Shapovalov scored 87 points vs Giron’s 76. The Canadian was exceptionally aggressive to blast 34 winners.
Talking about the service games, Shapovalov bagged 3 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Denis Shapovalov lost the serve 3 times and he saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Shapovalov put 69% of his first serves in, winning 62% (34/55) of the points behind his 1st serve and 68% (17/25) on the 2nd serve. Shapovalov broke Giron 5 times after converting 50% of his break points (5/10).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Denis has dropped 1 set in this event to conquer 56% of the points he played.
Shapovalov has a solid match record in the last 10 years having won 60% of his matches (304-204). 5-3 on hard in 2025. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this event, Shapovalov has an overall 137-89 match record in the last years on hard.
His best result of the current year was conquering the title in Dallas where he defeated Casper Ruud in the final 7-6(5) 6-3.
Denis has a composed 10-3 win-loss record in 2025, 5-3 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Acapulco
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
13 - 5win/loss
26
21
LWLLWLWWLW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22-13 | 13-7 | 8-5 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 20-22 | 13-12 | 2-5 | 5-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 32-28 | 18-11 | 9-8 | 3-6 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 21-26 | 7-9 | 11-8 | 0-6 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 30-25 | 4-6 | 16-7 | 9-10 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 48, the Spaniard got to the semifinal after defeating Mattia Bellucci 1-6 7-6(6) 6-2, Frances Tiafoe 6-3 6-7(6) 6-3 and Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez 6-2 6-2.
In the quarter, Alejandro had a good straight sets win against Pacheco Mendez (6-2 6-2). During the match Davidovich Fokina scored 56 points vs Pacheco Mendez’s 38. Davidovich Fokina was quite aggressive to blast 25 winners.
Talking about serving, Davidovich Fokina scored just 1 ace during the entire match and he committed only 3 double faults. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina lost the serve once and he saved 1 break points. Furthermore, Davidovich Fokina put 68% of his first serves in, winning 78% (25/32) of the points behind his 1st serve and 40% (6/15) on the 2nd serve. The Spaniard broke Pacheco Mendez 5 times after converting 56% of his break points (5/9).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Davidovich Fokina has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 54% of the points he played.
Alejandro’s best result of the current year was reaching the final in Delray Beach.
Alejandro has an overall 12-5 win-loss record in 2025, 11-4 on hard (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Shapovalov | Davidovich Fokina |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 3 | 3 |
| Tot Set | 7 | 8 |
| Tot Games | 66 | 75 |
| Pts | 227-176 | 247-207 |
| Total Points | 403 | 454 |
| Winners | 74 | 114 |
| %Winners | 33% | 46% |
Both Shapovalov and Davidovich Fokina played 3 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Denis Shapovalov lost 1 set, while Alejandro Davidovich Fokina dropped 2 sets. Shapovalov has played 1 set(s) less than Davidovich Fokina (7 vs 8). Therefore, Shapovalov played 9 games less than Davidovich Fokina. The Canadian scored 74 winners (33% of the total points). On the other side, Alejandro fired 114 winners (46%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Shapovalov | Davidovich Fokina |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 12 | 16 |
| Avg per match | 4 | 5.3 |
| 1st in | 111/190 | 151/217 |
| %1st in | 58% | 70% |
| 1st pts | 74/111 | 114/151 |
| %1st pts | 67% | 75% |
| 2nd pts | 51/79 | 34/66 |
| %2nd pts | 65% | 52% |
Shapovalov bagged 12 aces (4 per match). Davidovich Fokina fired 16 aces (5.3 per match). Shapovalov won 67% points on his first serve. He extremely effective on his second serve to win 65% of the points. On the other side, Davidovich Fokina won 75% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 52% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Shapovalov | Davidovich Fokina |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 14 | 12 |
| Converted | 14/28 | 12/31 |
| % Converted | 50% | 39% |
| Conceded | 15 | 13 |
| Saved | 8 | 7 |
| % Saved | 53% | 54% |
| Times Broken | 7 | 6 |
Shapovalov broke his opponents 14 times with a 50% conversion rate. Shapovalov conceded his serve 7 times and he saved 53% of the break points that he conceded. Davidovich Fokina broke his opponents 12 times with a 39% conversion rate. Davidovich Fokina conceded his serve 6 times and he saved 54% of the break points that he conceded.
| Shapovalov | |||||
| R1 Basavareddy |
R2 Michelsen |
1/4 Giron |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-5 6-2 | 6-4 6-3 | 4-6 6-3 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | |
| Tot Games | 20 | 19 | 27 | 66 | |
| pts | 74-57 | 66-43 | 87-76 | 227-176 | |
| Total points | 131 | 109 | 163 | 403 | |
| Winners | 20 | 20 | 34 | 74 | |
| %Winners | 27% | 30% | 39% | 33% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 6 | 3 | 3 | 12 | |
| Double Faults | 9 | 3 | 3 | 15 | |
| 1st in | 26/57 | 30/53 | 55/80 | 111/190 | |
| % 1st in | 46% | 57% | 69% | 58% | |
| 1st pts | 20/26 | 20/30 | 34/55 | 74/111 | |
| % 1st pts | 77% | 67% | 62% | 67% | |
| 2nd pts | 17/31 | 17/23 | 17/25 | 51/79 | |
| % 2nd pts | 55% | 74% | 68% | 65% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 5 | 4 | 5 | 14 | |
| Converted | 5/12 | 4/6 | 5/10 | 14/28 | |
| Converted % | 42% | 67% | 50% | 50% | |
| Conceded | 5 | 5 | 5 | 15 | |
| Saved | 3/5 | 3/5 | 2/5 | 8 | |
| Saved % | 60% | 60% | 40% | 53% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | |
| Davidovich Fokina | |||||
| R1 Bellucci |
R2 Tiafoe |
1/4 Pacheco Mendez |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 1-6 7-66 6-2 | 6-3 6-76 6-3 | 6-2 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 | |
| Tot Games | 28 | 31 | 16 | 75 | |
| pts | 87-79 | 104-90 | 56-38 | 247-207 | |
| Total points | 166 | 194 | 94 | 454 | |
| Winners | 38 | 51 | 25 | 114 | |
| %Winners | 44% | 49% | 45% | 46% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 5 | 10 | 1 | 16 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | |
| 1st in | 50/74 | 69/96 | 32/47 | 151/217 | |
| % 1st in | 68% | 72% | 68% | 70% | |
| 1st pts | 38/50 | 51/69 | 25/32 | 114/151 | |
| % 1st pts | 76% | 74% | 78% | 75% | |
| 2nd pts | 14/24 | 14/27 | 6/15 | 34/66 | |
| % 2nd pts | 58% | 52% | 40% | 52% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 2 | 5 | 5 | 12 | |
| Converted | 2/7 | 5/15 | 5/9 | 12/31 | |
| Converted % | 29% | 33% | 56% | 39% | |
| Conceded | 5 | 6 | 2 | 13 | |
| Saved | 3/5 | 3/6 | 1/2 | 7 | |
| Saved % | 60% | 50% | 50% | 53% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 3 | 1 | 6 | |
Head 2 Head
LLWLLLWLWL
LWLLWLWWLW Tennis Scores in Acapulco
- Brandon NakashimaNakashima – David GoffinGoffin (7-64 6-2) – See score progression
- Tomas MachacMachac – Learner TienTien (6-3 7-5) – See score progression
- Denis ShapovalovShapovalov – Marcos GironGiron (4-6 6-3 6-2) – See score progression
- Sadio Doumbia/Fabien ReboulDoumbia/Fabien Reboul – Tomas Machac/Jakub MensikMachac/Jakub Mensik (2-1 ret.) – See score progression
- Alejandro Davidovich FokinaDavidovich Fokina – Rodrigo Pacheco MendezPacheco Mendez (6-2 6-2) – See score progression
- Tomas MachacMachac – Learner TienTien (6-3 7-5) – See score progression
- Brandon NakashimaNakashima – David GoffinGoffin (7-6(4) 6-2) – See score progression
- Denis ShapovalovShapovalov – Marcos GironGiron (4-6 6-3 6-2) – See score progression
- Alejandro Davidovich FokinaDavidovich Fokina – Rodrigo Pacheco MendezPacheco Mendez (6-2 6-2) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Denis ShapovalovShapovalov – Alejandro Davidovich FokinaDavidovich Fokina (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Tomas MachacMachac – Brandon NakashimaNakashima (0-0) – H2H and prediction
