Tomas Machac and Brandon Nakashima will square off in the semifinal of the Abierto Mexicano Telcel for the 1^st time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Friday at 7:00 pm on ESTADIO. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Tomas Machac who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Tomas Machac is the pick to win this match.
Tomas Machac -> 1.45
Brandon Nakashima -> 2.75

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Prediction and head to head Tomas Machac vs. Brandon Nakashima

There is no head to head record between Tomas Machac and Brandon Nakashima since this will be the first time that they will face off in the main tour.

Tomas Machac

Ranked no. 25, Tomas reached the semifinal after beating Jakub Mensik 6-4 2-6 6-3, Daniel Altmaier 7-6(3) 6-1 and Learner Tien 6-3 7-5.

In the quarter, The Czech had a good straight sets win against Tien (6-3 7-5). During the match, Machac scored 77 points vs Tien’s 62. Tomas was very aggressive to blast 22 winners.

Talking about the service games, Machac scored just 1 ace and he committed only 2 double faults. Tomas Machac lost the serve 3 times and he saved 1 break points. Furthermore, Machac put 57% of his first serves in, winning 69% (22/32) of the points behind his 1st serve and 50% (12/24) on the 2nd serve. The Czech broke Tien 6 times after converting 43% of his break points (6/14).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Machac has lost 1 set in this competition to conquer 55% of the points he played.

Machac has a solid win-loss record in the last 9 years having won 66% of his matches (267-135). 7-3 on hard in 2025. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this event, Machac has a composed79-36 record in the last 9 years on hard.

Machac’s best result of the year was reaching the semifinal in Australia.

Tomas has a compiled 10-4 win-loss record in 2025, 7-3 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Acapulco

Tomas has never competed in this tournament before.

Brandon Nakashima

Ranked no. 42, Brandon reached the semifinal after defeating Benjamin Bonzi 7-6(6) 7-5, Holger Rune 3-0 ret. and David Goffin 7-6(4) 6-2.

In the quarter, The American had a good straight sets win against Goffin (7-6⁴ 6-2). During the match Nakashima scored 83 points vs Goffin’s 73. Nakashima was very aggressive to blast 34 winners.

About the serving games, Nakashima managed to score 12 aces and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Brandon Nakashima lost the serve 3 times and he saved 5 break points. Furthermore, Nakashima put 65% of his first serves in, winning 67% (34/51) of the points behind his 1st serve and 37% (10/27) on the 2nd serve. Brandon broke Goffin 5 times after converting 45% of his break points (5/11).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The American hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 53% of the points he played.

Nakashima has an overall 6-5 win-loss record in 2025, 6-4 on hard (See FULL STATS).

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Machac	Nakashima
Match played	3	3
Tot Set	7	6
Tot Games	68	49
Pts	242-198	188-162
Total Points	440	350
Winners	89	75
%Winners	37%	40%

Both Machac and Nakashima played 3 matches. At the moment, Tomas Machac dropped 1 set while Brandon Nakashima hasn’t lost a set so far. Machac has played 1 set more than Nakashima (7 vs 6). Therefore, Machac played 19 games more than Nakashima. Tomas scored 89 winners (37% of the total points). On the other side, Brandon fired 75 winners (40%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Machac	Nakashima
Aces	8	19
Avg per match	2.7	6.3
1st in	123/207	102/171
%1st in	59%	60%
1st pts	89/123	75/102
%1st pts	72%	74%
2nd pts	42/84	31/69
%2nd pts	50%	45%

Machac fired 8 aces (2.7 per match). Nakashima made 19 aces (6.3 per match). Machac won 72% points on his first serve. He was rock solid on his second serve to win 50% of the points. On the other side, Nakashima won 74% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 45% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Machac	Nakashima
Won	14	9
Converted	14/30	9/28
% Converted	47%	32%
Conceded	13	15
Saved	5	10
% Saved	38%	67%
Times Broken	8	5

The Czech broke his opponents 14 times with a 47% conversion rate. Machac dropped his serve 8 times and he saved 38% of the break points that he conceded. The American broke his opponents 9 times with a 32% conversion rate. Brandon conceded his serve 5 times and he saved 67% of the break points that he conceded.

Machac
	R1 Mensik	R2 Altmaier	1/4 Tien	Total
Score	6-4 2-6 6-3	7-63 6-1	6-3 7-5
Tot Set	3	2	2	7
Tot Games	27	20	21	68
pts	91-80	74-56	77-62	242-198
Total points	171	130	139	440
Winners	34	33	22	89
%Winners	37%	45%	29%	37%
SERVE
Aces	2	5	1	8
Double Faults	4	3	2	9
1st in	49/82	42/69	32/56	123/207
% 1st in	60%	61%	57%	59%
1st pts	34/49	33/42	22/32	89/123
% 1st pts	69%	79%	69%	72%
2nd pts	15/33	15/27	12/24	42/84
% 2nd pts	45%	56%	50%	50%
Breaks
Won	5	3	6	14
Converted	5/11	3/5	6/14	14/30
Converted %	45%	60%	43%	47%
Conceded	7	2	4	13
Saved	3/7	1/2	1/4	5
Saved %	43%	50%	25%	39%
Times Broken	4	1	3	8

Nakashima
	R1 Bonzi	R2 Rune	1/4 Goffin	Total
Score	7-66 7-5	3-0 ret.	7-64 6-2
Tot Set	2	1	2	5
Tot Games	25	3	21	49
pts	93-85	12-4	83-73	188-162
Total points	178	16	156	350
Winners	36	5	34	75
%Winners	39%	42%	41%	40%
SERVE
Aces	5	2	12	19
Double Faults	1	0	1	2
1st in	46/83	5/10	51/78	102/171
% 1st in	55%	50%	65%	60%
1st pts	36/46	5/5	34/51	75/102
% 1st pts	78%	100%	67%	74%
2nd pts	18/37	3/5	10/27	31/69
% 2nd pts	49%	60%	37%	45%
Breaks
Won	3	1	5	9
Converted	3/16	1/1	5/11	9/28
Converted %	19%	100%	45%	32%
Conceded	7	0	8	15
Saved	5/7	0/0	5/8	10
Saved %	71%	–	63%	45%
Times Broken	2	0	3	5

Tennis Scores in Acapulco

• Denis ShapovalovShapovalov – Marcos GironGiron (4-6 6-3 6-2) – See score progression
• Sadio Doumbia/Fabien ReboulDoumbia/Fabien Reboul – Tomas Machac/Jakub MensikMachac/Jakub Mensik (2-1 ret.) – See score progression
• Alejandro Davidovich FokinaDavidovich Fokina – Rodrigo Pacheco MendezPacheco Mendez (6-2 6-2) – See score progression
• Brandon NakashimaNakashima – David GoffinGoffin (7-6⁴ 6-2) – See score progression
• Tomas MachacMachac – Learner TienTien (6-3 7-5) – See score progression
• Tomas MachacMachac – Learner TienTien (6-3 7-5) – See score progression
• Brandon NakashimaNakashima – David GoffinGoffin (7-6(4) 6-2) – See score progression
• Denis ShapovalovShapovalov – Marcos GironGiron (4-6 6-3 6-2) – See score progression
• Alejandro Davidovich FokinaDavidovich Fokina – Rodrigo Pacheco MendezPacheco Mendez (6-2 6-2) – See score progression

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Denis ShapovalovShapovalov – Alejandro Davidovich FokinaDavidovich Fokina (1-0) – H2H and prediction
• Tomas MachacMachac – Brandon NakashimaNakashima (0-0) – H2H and prediction