Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Federico Coria will square off in the quarter of the Movistar Chile Open for the 6th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Friday at 7:00 pm on COURT JAIME FILLOL. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Camilo Ugo Carabelli who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Camilo Ugo Carabelli is the pick to win this match.
Camilo Ugo Carabelli -> 1.61
Federico Coria -> 2.32
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Prediction and head to head Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs. Federico Coria
This will be the 6th time that Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Federico Coria play each other. The head to head is 3-2 for Ugo Carabelli (see full H2H stats), 3-1 on clay.
The last time that they locked horns, Ugo Carabelli won 7-5 6-4 in the final in the Piracicaba Challenger back in 2024.
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
14 - 5win/loss
60
60
LWWLWLWWLW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 20-10 | 3-3 | 17-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 58-30 | 6-5 | 52-24 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 41-26 | 0-2 | 41-24 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 39-24 | 3-4 | 36-19 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 43-24 | 4-2 | 39-22 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 69 (career-high), Camilo got to the quarter after beating Nicolas Jarry 5-7 6-3 7-6(9) and Thiago Moura Monteiro 4-6 7-6(2) 6-3.
In the 2nd round against Moura Monteiro, The Argentine recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (4-6 7-62 6-3). During the match, Ugo Carabelli scored 102 points vs Moura Monteiro’s 98. Camilo was very aggressive to blast 57 winners.
Regarding the service games, Ugo Carabelli recorded 7 aces and he committed only 6 double faults. Camilo Ugo Carabelli lost the serve once and he saved 6 break points. Furthermore, Ugo Carabelli put 70% of his first serves in, winning 85% (57/67) of the points behind his 1st serve and 31% (9/29) on the 2nd serve. The Argentine broke Moura Monteiro twice after converting 25% of his break points (2/8).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Argentine has surrendered 2 set in this event to win 51% of the points he played.
Ugo Carabelli has a solid match record in the last 10 years having won 64% of his matches (359-203). 13-4 on clay in 2025. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this event, Ugo Carabelli has a compiled 326-172 win-loss record in the last years on clay.
His best result of the current year was conquering the title the Rosario Challenger where he overcame Hugo Dellien in the final 3-6 6-3 6-2.
Camilo has a compiled 13-5 win-loss record in 2025, 13-4 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Santiago
Federico Coria
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 15-13 | 0-1 | 15-12 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 45-35 | 0-3 | 45-31 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 38-29 | 3-8 | 35-20 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 41-32 | 2-5 | 39-26 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 43-31 | 2-7 | 40-20 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 136, Federico reached the quarter after beating Tomas Barrios Vera 6-1 6-0 and Alejandro Tabilo 7-6(11) 4-6 6-3.
In the 2nd round, Coria defeated Tabilo (7-611 4-6 6-3). During the match Coria scored 110 points vs Tabilo’s 106. Coria was quite aggressive to blast 45 winners.
Talking about serving, Coria managed to score 10 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Federico Coria lost the serve 3 times and he saved 4 break points. Furthermore, Coria put 63% of his first serves in, winning 70% (45/64) of the points behind his 1st serve and 57% (21/37) on the 2nd serve. The Argentine broke Tabilo 3 times after converting 25% of his break points (3/12).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Federico has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 55% of the points he played.
Coria has a compiled 9-7 win-loss record in 2025, 9-6 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Santiago
Previously, his best result was reaching the 2nd round in 2021 and 2024. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Ugo Carabelli | Coria |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 2 |
| Tot Set | 6 | 5 |
| Tot Games | 66 | 45 |
| Pts | 218-209 | 168-138 |
| Total Points | 427 | 306 |
| Winners | 113 | 63 |
| %Winners | 52% | 38% |
Both Ugo Carabelli and Coria played 2 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Camilo Ugo Carabelli conceded 2 sets, while Federico Coria conceded 1 set. Ugo Carabelli has played 1 set more than Coria (6 vs 5). Therefore, Ugo Carabelli played 21 games more than Coria. The Argentine scored 113 winners (52% of the total points). On the other side, The Argentine managed to score 63 winners (38%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Ugo Carabelli | Coria |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 10 | 12 |
| Avg per match | 5 | 6 |
| 1st in | 140/215 | 86/137 |
| %1st in | 65% | 63% |
| 1st pts | 113/140 | 63/86 |
| %1st pts | 81% | 73% |
| 2nd pts | 36/75 | 28/51 |
| %2nd pts | 48% | 55% |
Ugo Carabelli made 10 aces (5 per match). Coria made 12 aces (6 per match). Ugo Carabelli won 81% points on his first serve. He extremely effective on his second serve to win 48% of the points. On the other side, Coria won 73% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 55% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Ugo Carabelli | Coria |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 3 | 9 |
| Converted | 3/11 | 9/21 |
| % Converted | 27% | 43% |
| Conceded | 14 | 7 |
| Saved | 12 | 4 |
| % Saved | 86% | 57% |
| Times Broken | 2 | 3 |
Ugo Carabelli broke his opponents 3 times with a 27% conversion rate. The Argentine surrendered his serve twice and he saved 86% of the break points that he conceded. The Argentine broke his opponents 9 times with a 43% conversion rate. The Argentine conceded his serve 3 times and he saved 57% of the break points that he conceded.
| Ugo Carabelli | ||||
| R1 Jarry |
R2 Moura Monteiro |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 5-7 6-3 7-69 | 4-6 7-62 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | 6 | |
| Tot Games | 34 | 32 | 66 | |
| pts | 116-111 | 102-98 | 218-209 | |
| Total points | 227 | 200 | 427 | |
| Winners | 56 | 57 | 113 | |
| %Winners | 48% | 56% | 52% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 3 | 7 | 10 | |
| Double Faults | 4 | 6 | 10 | |
| 1st in | 73/119 | 67/96 | 140/215 | |
| % 1st in | 61% | 70% | 65% | |
| 1st pts | 56/73 | 57/67 | 113/140 | |
| % 1st pts | 77% | 85% | 81% | |
| 2nd pts | 27/46 | 9/29 | 36/75 | |
| % 2nd pts | 59% | 31% | 48% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| Converted | 1/3 | 2/8 | 3/11 | |
| Converted % | 33% | 25% | 27% | |
| Conceded | 7 | 7 | 14 | |
| Saved | 6/7 | 6/7 | 12 | |
| Saved % | 86% | 86% | 86% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Coria | ||||
| R1 Tomas Barrios Vera |
R2 Tabilo |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-1 6-0 | 7-611 4-6 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 5 | |
| Tot Games | 13 | 32 | 45 | |
| pts | 58-32 | 110-106 | 168-138 | |
| Total points | 90 | 216 | 306 | |
| Winners | 18 | 45 | 63 | |
| %Winners | 31% | 41% | 38% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 2 | 10 | 12 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 3 | 6 | |
| 1st in | 22/36 | 64/101 | 86/137 | |
| % 1st in | 61% | 63% | 63% | |
| 1st pts | 18/22 | 45/64 | 63/86 | |
| % 1st pts | 82% | 70% | 73% | |
| 2nd pts | 7/14 | 21/37 | 28/51 | |
| % 2nd pts | 50% | 57% | 55% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 6 | 3 | 9 | |
| Converted | 6/9 | 3/12 | 9/21 | |
| Converted % | 67% | 25% | 43% | |
| Conceded | 0 | 7 | 7 | |
| Saved | 0/0 | 4/7 | 4 | |
| Saved % | – | 57% | 29% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 3 | 3 | |
Head 2 Head
LWWLWLWWLW
LLWLWWLLWW Tennis Scores in Santiago
- Ryan Seggerman/John-Patrick SmithSeggerman/John-Patrick Smith – Francisco Cabral/Jean-Julien RojerCabral/Jean-Julien Rojer (7-63 7-65) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Guido Andreozzi/Theo ArribageAndreozzi/Theo Arribage – Gregoire Jacq/Orlando LuzJacq/Orlando Luz (7-62 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Damir DzumhurDzumhur – Sebastian BaezBaez (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Laslo DjereDjere – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Camilo Ugo CarabelliUgo Carabelli – Federico CoriaCoria (3-2) – H2H and prediction
- Francisco CerundoloCerundolo – Tomas Martin EtcheverryMartin Etcheverry (4-4) – H2H and prediction
