Luca Van Assche and Murphy Cassone will square off in the quarter of the Lugano Challenger for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Friday at 4:30 pm on CENTRALE. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Luca Van Assche who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Luca Van Assche is the pick to win this match.
Luca Van Assche -> 1.71
Murphy Cassone -> 2.04
Click here to see the updated quotes and live streaming (only selected countries - USA excluded).
To be able to watch live streaming bet365, a funded account is required or you need to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. 18+ BeGambleAware.
Here where top tennis events are broadcasted or streamed online (ATP, WTA).
At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.
Prediction and head to head Luca Van Assche vs. Murphy Cassone
This will be the 2nd time that Luca Van Assche and Murphy Cassone square off. The head to head is 1-0 for Cassone (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on indoor hard courts.
The last time that they played, Cassone won 2-6 6-0 6-2 in the 1st round in the Pau Challenger back in February 2025.
Luca Van Assche
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 9-7 | 0-1 | 3-2 | 6-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 35-38 | 15-15 | 8-10 | 10-11 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 34-30 | 1-7 | 15-11 | 15-9 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 55-31 | 0-1 | 40-20 | 15-10 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 26-22 | 3-2 | 8-7 | 15-13 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 154, Van Assche got to the quarter after beating Tung-Lin Wu 2-6 6-2 6-0 and Jan Choinski 6-3 6-1.
In the 2nd round, Luca had a good straight sets win against Choinski (6-3 6-1). During the match, Van Assche scored 56 points vs Choinski’s 32. Van Assche was pretty aggressive to blast 25 winners.
Talking about the service games, Van Assche managed to score 7 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Luca Van Assche lost the serve once. Furthermore, Van Assche put 76% of his first serves in, winning 81% (25/31) of the points behind his 1st serve and 50% (5/10) on the 2nd serve. Van Assche broke Choinski 5 times after converting 71% of his break points (5/7).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Luca has lost 1 set in this tournament to conquer 58% of the points he played.
Van Assche has a winning match record in the last 6 years having won 56% of his matches (161-129). 4-3 on indoor hard courts in 2025. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Van Assche has a compiled60-48 match record in the last 6 years on indoor hard courts.
Luca has an aggregate 4-4 win-loss record in 2025, 4-3 on indoor hard courts (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Lugano Challenger
The French player has never competed in this tournament before.
Murphy Cassone
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 19-11 | 9-6 | 2-2 | 8-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 30-18 | 16-13 | 0-0 | 14-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 6-8 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 4-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 20-9 | 12-7 | 0-0 | 8-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 2-2 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 248 (career-high), the American got to the quarter after defeating Johan Nikles 7-5 6-3, Alexey Vatutin w/o, Ricardas Berankis 6-1 6-2 and Hugo Grenier 7-6(7) 7-6(6).
In the 2nd round, Murphy had a good straight sets win against Grenier (7-67 7-66).During the match Cassone scored less points (5) than Grenier. In fact, the world no. 154 won 86 points vs Grenier’s. That means that Cassone was more focused during the important points. The American was very aggressive to blast 55 winners.
About the serving games, Cassone struck 11 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Murphy Cassone lost the serve once and he saved 6 break points. Furthermore, Cassone put 74% of his first serves in, winning 72% (55/76) of the points behind his 1st serve and 48% (13/27) on the 2nd serve. The American broke Grenier once after converting 33% of his break points (1/3).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The American started his run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, he hasn’t dropped yet a set in this competition to win 54% of the points he played.
Cassone’s best result of the current season was getting to the semifinal in the Nonthaburi 2 Challenger and the Nonthaburi 3 Challenger.
Murphy has an overall 15-6 win-loss record in 2025, 7-2 on indoor hard courts (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Van Assche | Cassone |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 3 |
| Tot Set | 5 | 6 |
| Tot Games | 38 | 62 |
| Pts | 131-94 | 214-181 |
| Total Points | 225 | 395 |
| Winners | 55 | 112 |
| %Winners | 42% | 52% |
Van Assche played 2 matches while Cassone competed in 3 matches. Cassone started his run from the qualifications while Van Assche had a direct access to the main draw. At the moment, Luca Van Assche dropped 1 set while Murphy Cassone hasn’t lost a set so far. Van Assche has played 1 set(s) less than Cassone (5 vs 6). Therefore, Van Assche played 24 games less than Cassone. Van Assche scored 55 winners (42% of the total points). On the other side, Cassone bagged 112 winners (52%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Van Assche | Cassone |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 13 | 19 |
| Avg per match | 6.5 | 6.3 |
| 1st in | 70/107 | 151/209 |
| %1st in | 65% | 72% |
| 1st pts | 55/70 | 112/151 |
| %1st pts | 79% | 74% |
| 2nd pts | 16/37 | 33/58 |
| %2nd pts | 43% | 57% |
Van Assche bagged 13 aces (6.5 per match). Cassone made 19 aces (6.3 per match). Van Assche won 79% points behind his first serve. He pretty effective on his second serve to win 43% of the points. On the other side, Cassone won 74% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 57% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Van Assche | Cassone |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 10 | 8 |
| Converted | 10/17 | 8/18 |
| % Converted | 59% | 44% |
| Conceded | 5 | 11 |
| Saved | 2 | 9 |
| % Saved | 40% | 82% |
| Times Broken | 3 | 2 |
Luca broke his opponents 10 times with a 59% conversion rate. Van Assche lost his serve 3 times and he saved 40% of the break points that he conceded. The American broke his opponents 8 times with a 44% conversion rate. Murphy conceded his serve twice and he saved 82% of the break points that he conceded.
| Van Assche | ||||
| R1 Wu |
R2 Choinski |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 2-6 6-2 6-0 | 6-3 6-1 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 5 | |
| Tot Games | 22 | 16 | 38 | |
| pts | 75-62 | 56-32 | 131-94 | |
| Total points | 137 | 88 | 225 | |
| Winners | 30 | 25 | 55 | |
| %Winners | 40% | 45% | 42% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 6 | 7 | 13 | |
| Double Faults | 7 | 2 | 9 | |
| 1st in | 39/66 | 31/41 | 70/107 | |
| % 1st in | 59% | 76% | 65% | |
| 1st pts | 30/39 | 25/31 | 55/70 | |
| % 1st pts | 77% | 81% | 79% | |
| 2nd pts | 11/27 | 5/10 | 16/37 | |
| % 2nd pts | 41% | 50% | 43% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 5 | 5 | 10 | |
| Converted | 5/10 | 5/7 | 10/17 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 71% | 59% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 1 | 5 | |
| Saved | 2/4 | 0/1 | 2 | |
| Saved % | 50% | 0% | 25% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| Cassone | ||||||
| Q1 Nikles |
Q3 Vatutin |
R1 Berankis |
R2 Grenier |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-5 6-3 | w/o | 6-1 6-2 | 7-67 7-66 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | – | 2 | 2 | 6 | |
| Tot Games | 21 | – | 15 | 26 | 62 | |
| pts | 75-60 | – | 53-30 | 86-91 | 214-181 | |
| Total points | 135 | – | 83 | 177 | 395 | |
| Winners | 32 | – | 25 | 55 | 112 | |
| %Winners | 43% | – | 47% | 64% | 52% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 4 | – | 4 | 11 | 19 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | – | 2 | 2 | 6 | |
| 1st in | 44/64 | – | 31/42 | 76/103 | 151/209 | |
| % 1st in | 69% | – | 74% | 74% | 72% | |
| 1st pts | 32/44 | – | 25/31 | 55/76 | 112/151 | |
| % 1st pts | 73% | – | 81% | 72% | 74% | |
| 2nd pts | 12/20 | – | 8/11 | 13/27 | 33/58 | |
| % 2nd pts | 60% | – | 73% | 48% | 57% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 3 | – | 4 | 1 | 8 | |
| Converted | 3/8 | – | 4/7 | 1/3 | 8/18 | |
| Converted % | 38% | – | 57% | 33% | 44% | |
| Conceded | 4 | – | 0 | 7 | 11 | |
| Saved | 3/4 | – | 0/0 | 6/7 | 9 | |
| Saved % | 75% | – | – | 86% | 81% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | – | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
Head 2 Head
LLWWWWWLWW
LWWLLLWLWW 
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Henri SquireSquire – Borna CoricCoric (0-0) – H2H and prediction
