Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Thiago Moura Monteiro will face off in the 2nd round of the Movistar Chile Open for the 4th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Thursday at 6:00 pm on COURT 1. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Thiago Moura Monteiro who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Thiago Moura Monteiro is the pick to win this match.
Thiago Moura Monteiro -> 1.9
Camilo Ugo Carabelli -> 1.9
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Prediction and head to head Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs. Thiago Moura Monteiro
This will be the 4th time that Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Thiago Moura Monteiro clash against each other. The head to head is 2-1 for Moura Monteiro (see full H2H stats), 2-1 on clay.
The last time that they squared off, Ugo Carabelli won 6-4 7-5 in the semifinal in the Santa Cruz de la Sierra Challenger back in 2024.
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
12 - 5win/loss
55
51
LLLLWLWWWL | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 25-17 | 3-3 | 22-12 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 58-30 | 6-5 | 52-24 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 41-26 | 0-2 | 41-24 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 39-24 | 3-4 | 36-19 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 43-24 | 4-2 | 39-22 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 69 (career-high), Ugo Carabelli reached the 2nd round after beating Nicolas Jarry 5-7 6-3 7-6(9).
In the 1st round against Jarry, Camilo recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (5-7 6-3 7-69). During the match, Ugo Carabelli scored 116 points vs Jarry’s 111. The Argentine was extremely aggressive to blast 56 winners.
Talking about the service games, Ugo Carabelli recorded 3 aces and he committed only 4 double faults. Overall, Camilo Ugo Carabelli was quite effective on serve to win 77% (56/73) of his 1st serve and 59% (27/46) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Camilo broke Jarry once after converting 33% of his break points (1/3).
Ugo Carabelli has a solid record in the last 10 years having won 64% of his matches (358-203). 12-4 on clay in 2025. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this event, Ugo Carabelli has an overall 325-172 record in the last years on clay.
His best result of the current season was winning the title the Rosario Challenger where he defeated Hugo Dellien in the final 3-6 6-3 6-2.
Ugo Carabelli has an overall 12-5 win-loss record in 2025, 12-4 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Santiago
Thiago Moura Monteiro
5 - 5win/loss
143
61
LLLLLLLWLL | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 16-17 | 3-3 | 13-13 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 39-28 | 1-3 | 33-17 | 4-6 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 34-30 | 3-7 | 30-22 | 1-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 43-33 | 8-8 | 28-16 | 4-7 | 3-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 33-27 | 8-8 | 25-18 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 108, Moura Monteiro got to the 2nd round after beating Juan Manuel Cerundolo 6-3 3-6 7-6(2).
In the 1st round, The Brazilian defeated Manuel Cerundolo (6-3 3-6 7-62).During the match Moura Monteiro scored less points (4) than Manuel Cerundolo. In fact, the world no. 69 won 97 points vs Manuel Cerundolo’s. That means that Moura Monteiro was more focused during the important points. Thiago was exceptionally aggressive to blast 42 winners.
About the serving games, Moura Monteiro scored 3 aces and he committed only 9 double faults. Thiago Moura Monteiro lost the serve 4 times and he saved 6 break points. Furthermore, Moura Monteiro put 63% of his first serves in, winning 67% (42/63) of the points behind his 1st serve and 46% (17/37) on the 2nd serve. The Brazilian broke Manuel Cerundolo 4 times after converting 31% of his break points (4/13).
The Brazilian has a composed 5-5 win-loss record in 2025, 2-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Santiago
Previously, his best result was reaching the quarter in 2020, 2022 and 2023. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Ugo Carabelli | Moura Monteiro |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 1 |
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 |
| Tot Games | 34 | 31 |
| Pts | 116-111 | 97-101 |
| Total Points | 227 | 198 |
| Winners | 56 | 42 |
| %Winners | 48% | 43% |
Both Ugo Carabelli and Moura Monteiro played 1 match. Both players lost a set in the event. Camilo Ugo Carabelli lost 1 set, while Thiago Moura Monteiro conceded 1 set. Talking about their workload, Ugo Carabelli and Moura Monteiro have played the same amount of sets 3. However, Ugo Carabelli played 3 games more than Moura Monteiro. Camilo scored 56 winners (48% of the total points). On the other side, Moura Monteiro made 42 winners (43%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Ugo Carabelli | Moura Monteiro |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 3 | 3 |
| Avg per match | 3 | 3 |
| 1st in | 73/119 | 63/100 |
| %1st in | 61% | 63% |
| 1st pts | 56/73 | 42/63 |
| %1st pts | 77% | 67% |
| 2nd pts | 27/46 | 17/37 |
| %2nd pts | 59% | 46% |
Ugo Carabelli made 3 aces . Moura Monteiro fired 3 aces . Ugo Carabelli won 77% points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 59% of the points. On the other side, Moura Monteiro won 67% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 46% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Ugo Carabelli | Moura Monteiro |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 1 | 4 |
| Converted | 1/3 | 4/13 |
| % Converted | 33% | 31% |
| Conceded | 7 | 10 |
| Saved | 6 | 6 |
| % Saved | 86% | 60% |
| Times Broken | 1 | 4 |
The Argentine broke his opponent once with a 33% conversion rate. Ugo Carabelli conceded his serve once and he saved 86% of the break points that he conceded. Thiago broke his opponent 4 times with a 31% conversion rate. Thiago conceded his serve 4 times and he saved 60% of the break points that he conceded.
| Ugo Carabelli | |||
| R1 Jarry |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 5-7 6-3 7-69 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | |
| Tot Games | 34 | 34 | |
| pts | 116-111 | 116-111 | |
| Total points | 227 | 227 | |
| Winners | 56 | 56 | |
| %Winners | 48% | 48% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 3 | 3 | |
| Double Faults | 4 | 4 | |
| 1st in | 73/119 | 73/119 | |
| % 1st in | 61% | 61% | |
| 1st pts | 56/73 | 56/73 | |
| % 1st pts | 77% | 77% | |
| 2nd pts | 27/46 | 27/46 | |
| % 2nd pts | 59% | 59% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 1 | 1 | |
| Converted | 1/3 | 1/3 | |
| Converted % | 33% | 33% | |
| Conceded | 7 | 7 | |
| Saved | 6/7 | 6 | |
| Saved % | 86% | 86% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | |
| Moura Monteiro | |||
| R1 Manuel Cerundolo |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 3-6 7-62 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | |
| Tot Games | 31 | 31 | |
| pts | 97-101 | 97-101 | |
| Total points | 198 | 198 | |
| Winners | 42 | 42 | |
| %Winners | 43% | 43% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 3 | 3 | |
| Double Faults | 9 | 9 | |
| 1st in | 63/100 | 63/100 | |
| % 1st in | 63% | 63% | |
| 1st pts | 42/63 | 42/63 | |
| % 1st pts | 67% | 67% | |
| 2nd pts | 17/37 | 17/37 | |
| % 2nd pts | 46% | 46% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 4 | 4 | |
| Converted | 4/13 | 4/13 | |
| Converted % | 31% | 31% | |
| Conceded | 10 | 10 | |
| Saved | 6/10 | 6 | |
| Saved % | 60% | 60% | |
| Times Broken | 4 | 4 | |
Head 2 Head
LLLLWLWWWL
LLLLLLLWLL Tennis Scores in Santiago
- Laslo DjereDjere – Pedro Martinez PorteroMartinez Portero (6-1 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Jaime FariaFaria – Gustavo HeideHeide (6-72 7-65 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Francisco CerundoloFrancisco – Yannick HanfmannYannick (6-2 4-6 7-6(5)) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Federico CoriaCoria – Alejandro TabiloTabilo (1-2) – H2H and prediction
- Laslo DjereDjere – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Christian GarinGarin – Tomas Martin EtcheverryMartin Etcheverry (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Camilo Ugo CarabelliUgo Carabelli – Thiago Moura MonteiroMoura Monteiro (1-2) – H2H and prediction
- Francisco CerundoloCerundolo – Yannick HanfmannHanfmann (4-1) – H2H and prediction
- Francisco ComesanaComesana – Sebastian BaezBaez (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Mariano NavoneNavone – Damir DzumhurDzumhur (0-0) – H2H and prediction
