Mathys Erhard and Luka Pavlovic will play each other in the 2nd round of the Kigali 1 Challenger for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Wednesday at 12:30 pm on COURT 2. Here the head to head stats and relative prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Mathys Erhard who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Mathys Erhard is the pick to win this match.
Mathys Erhard -> 1.727
Luka Pavlovic -> 2.02
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Prediction and head to head Mathys Erhard vs. Luka Pavlovic
There is no head to head record between Mathys Erhard and Luka Pavlovic since this will be the first time that they will fight against each other in the main tour.
Mathys Erhard
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 34-30 | 10-8 | 22-20 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 62-28 | 2-2 | 59-25 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 53-35 | 4-4 | 49-28 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 47-22 | 10-7 | 33-13 | 4-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 41-20 | 10-5 | 31-15 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 304, the French player reached the 2nd round after defeating Maximus Jones 6-3 7-5.
In the 1st round, Mathys had a good straight sets win against Jones (6-3 7-5). During the match, Erhard scored 79 points vs Jones’s 59. Erhard was extremely aggressive to blast 30 winners.
Regarding the service games, Erhard fired 3 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Overall, Mathys Erhard was quite effective on serve to win 75% (30/40) of his 1st serve and 61% (17/28) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Mathys broke Jones 3 times after converting 38% of his break points (3/8).
Erhard has a solid win-loss record in the last 8 years having won 63% of his matches (231-137). 1-0 on clay in 2025. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this competition, Erhard has a compiled194-98 match record in the last 8 years on clay.
The French player has an overall 4-3 win-loss record in 2025, 1-0 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Kigali 1 Challenger
Mathys has never competed in this tournament before.
Luka Pavlovic
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 33-23 | 1-2 | 30-19 | 0-1 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 44-18 | 0-0 | 42-16 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 39-12 | 0-1 | 38-10 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 11-12 | 3-2 | 8-10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 16-14 | 1-1 | 15-13 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 364, Pavlovic got to the 2nd round after beating Axel Herberg 6-2 6-1, Facundo Juarez 6-0 6-1 and Oriol Roca Batalla 6-2 6-4.
In the 1st round, Pavlovic had a good straight sets win against Roca Batalla (6-2 6-4). During the match Pavlovic scored 63 points vs Roca Batalla’s 38. Pavlovic was very aggressive to blast 26 winners.
Talking about serving, Pavlovic struck 13 aces and he was very steady in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Luka Pavlovic was quite efficient on serve to win 87% (26/30) of his 1st serve and 91% (10/11) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. The French player broke Roca Batalla 3 times after converting 25% of his break points (3/12).
Luka has an aggregate 4-1 win-loss record in 2025, 4-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Erhard | Pavlovic |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 3 |
| Tot Set | 2 | 6 |
| Tot Games | 21 | 46 |
| Pts | 79-59 | 169-87 |
| Total Points | 138 | 256 |
| Winners | 30 | 64 |
| %Winners | 38% | 38% |
Erhard played 1 match while Pavlovic competed in 3 matches. Pavlovic started his run from the qualifications while Erhard had a direct access to the main draw. Both players have not conceded a single set in this event so far. Erhard has played 4 set(s) less than Pavlovic (2 vs 6). Therefore, Erhard played 25 games less than Pavlovic. Erhard scored 30 winners (38% of the total points). On the other side, Pavlovic recorded 64 winners (38%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Erhard | Pavlovic |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 3 | 25 |
| Avg per match | 3 | 8.3 |
| 1st in | 40/68 | 74/108 |
| %1st in | 59% | 69% |
| 1st pts | 30/40 | 64/74 |
| %1st pts | 75% | 86% |
| 2nd pts | 17/28 | 25/34 |
| %2nd pts | 61% | 74% |
Erhard recorded 3 aces . Pavlovic made 25 aces (8.3 per match). Erhard won 75% points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 61% of the points. On the other side, Pavlovic won 86% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 74% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Erhard | Pavlovic |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 3 | 14 |
| Converted | 3/8 | 14/27 |
| % Converted | 38% | 52% |
| Conceded | 7 | 1 |
| Saved | 6 | 1 |
| % Saved | 86% | 100% |
| Times Broken | 1 | 0 |
Mathys broke his opponent 3 times with a 38% conversion rate. The French player conceded his serve once and he saved 86% of the break points that he conceded. Luka broke his opponents 14 times with a 52% conversion rate. Pavlovic was rock solid on his serve as he has never conceded a single service game after saving 1 break points.
| Erhard | |||
| R1 Jones |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 7-5 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
| Tot Games | 21 | 21 | |
| pts | 79-59 | 79-59 | |
| Total points | 138 | 138 | |
| Winners | 30 | 30 | |
| %Winners | 38% | 38% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 3 | 3 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 2 | |
| 1st in | 40/68 | 40/68 | |
| % 1st in | 59% | 59% | |
| 1st pts | 30/40 | 30/40 | |
| % 1st pts | 75% | 75% | |
| 2nd pts | 17/28 | 17/28 | |
| % 2nd pts | 61% | 61% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 3 | 3 | |
| Converted | 3/8 | 3/8 | |
| Converted % | 38% | 38% | |
| Conceded | 7 | 7 | |
| Saved | 6/7 | 6 | |
| Saved % | 86% | 86% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | |
| Pavlovic | |||||
| Q1 Herberg |
Q3 Juarez |
R1 Roca Batalla |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 6-1 | 6-0 6-1 | 6-2 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | |
| Tot Games | 15 | 13 | 18 | 46 | |
| pts | 52-25 | 54-24 | 63-38 | 169-87 | |
| Total points | 77 | 78 | 101 | 256 | |
| Winners | 21 | 17 | 26 | 64 | |
| %Winners | 40% | 31% | 41% | 38% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 3 | 9 | 13 | 25 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 1st in | 24/35 | 20/32 | 30/41 | 74/108 | |
| % 1st in | 69% | 63% | 73% | 69% | |
| 1st pts | 21/24 | 17/20 | 26/30 | 64/74 | |
| % 1st pts | 88% | 85% | 87% | 86% | |
| 2nd pts | 7/11 | 8/12 | 10/11 | 25/34 | |
| % 2nd pts | 64% | 67% | 91% | 74% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 5 | 6 | 3 | 14 | |
| Converted | 5/5 | 6/10 | 3/12 | 14/27 | |
| Converted % | 100% | 60% | 25% | 52% | |
| Conceded | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Saved | 0/0 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 1 | |
| Saved % | – | 100% | – | 100% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Head 2 Head
LWLWWWLLLW
LLWLWLLWLL Tennis Scores in Kigali 1 Challenger
- Marco CecchinatoCecchinato – Geoffrey BlancaneauxBlancaneaux (6-4 6-4) – See score progression
- Mathys ErhardErhard – Maximus JonesJones (6-3 7-5) – See score progression
- Luka PavlovicPavlovic – Oriol Roca BatallaRoca Batalla (6-2 6-4) – See score progression
- Andrej MartinMartin – Jesper De JongDe Jong (7-61 6-3) – See score progression
- Joel SchwaerzlerSchwaerzler – Zdenek KolarKolar (6-4 6-4) – See score progression
- Alex Marti PujolrasMarti Pujolras – Dominik KellovskyKellovsky (7-611 6-2) – See score progression
- Filip Cristian JianuCristian Jianu – Nicholas David IonelDavid Ionel (6-4 6-4) – See score progression
- Maximilian NeuchristNeuchrist – Calvin HemeryHemery (6-4 2-0 ret.) – See score progression
- Neil OberleitnerOberleitner – Manuel GuinardGuinard (7-5 2-0 ret.) – See score progression
- Eliakim CoulibalyCoulibaly – Daniel MichalskiMichalski (6-4 6-4) – See score progression
- Guy Den OudenDen Ouden – Clement TaburTabur (7-63 6-4) – See score progression
- Lukas NeumayerNeumayer – Gabriele PennafortiPennaforti (4-6 6-2 6-4) – See score progression
- Valentin RoyerRoyer – Maxime ChazalChazal (6-3 6-4) – See score progression
- Carlos Sanchez JoverSanchez Jover – Corentin DenollyDenolly (6-3 6-3) – See score progression
- Carlos TabernerTaberner – Andrea PicchionePicchione (6-2 6-2) – See score progression
- Max HoukesHoukes – Maxime JanvierJanvier (6-3 6-4) – See score progression
- Andrej MartinMartin – Jesper De JongDe Jong (7-6(1) 6-3) – See score progression
- Alex Marti PujolrasMarti Pujolras – Dominik KellovskyKellovsky (7-6(11) 6-2) – See score progression
- Mathys ErhardErhard – Maximus JonesJones (6-3 7-5) – See score progression
- Luka PavlovicPavlovic – Oriol Roca BatallaRoca Batalla (6-2 6-4) – See score progression
- Maximilian NeuchristNeuchrist – Calvin HemeryHemery (6-4 2-0 ret.) – See score progression
- Joel SchwaerzlerSchwaerzler – Zdenek KolarKolar (6-4 6-4) – See score progression
- Eliakim CoulibalyCoulibaly – Daniel MichalskiMichalski (6-4 6-4) – See score progression
- Filip Cristian JianuCristian Jianu – Nicholas David IonelDavid Ionel (6-4 6-4) – See score progression
- Neil OberleitnerOberleitner – Manuel GuinardGuinard (7-5 2-0 ret.) – See score progression
- Guy Den OudenDen Ouden – Clement TaburTabur (7-6(3) 6-4) – See score progression
- Marco CecchinatoCecchinato – Geoffrey BlancaneauxBlancaneaux (6-4 6-4) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Andrej MartinMartin – Alex Marti PujolrasMarti Pujolras (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Maximilian NeuchristNeuchrist – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Marco CecchinatoCecchinato – Carlos TabernerTaberner (3-0) – H2H and prediction
- Mathys ErhardErhard – Luka PavlovicPavlovic (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Filip Cristian JianuCristian Jianu – Neil OberleitnerOberleitner (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Max HoukesHoukes – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
