Sebastian Baez and Alexandre Muller will fight against each other in the final of the Rio Open for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Sunday at 5:30 pm on QUADRA GUGA KUERTEN. Here the head to head stats and relative prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Sebastian Baez who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Sebastian Baez is the pick to win this match.
Sebastian Baez -> 1.53
Alexandre Muller -> 2.5
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Prediction and head to head Sebastian Baez vs. Alexandre Muller
There is no head to head record between Sebastian Baez and Alexandre Muller since this will be the first time that they will square off in the main tour.
Sebastian Baez
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 20-27 | 3-9 | 17-14 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 31-28 | 5-9 | 26-11 | 0-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 33-27 | 9-7 | 22-13 | 1-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 35-32 | 6-12 | 27-12 | 0-6 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 56-16 | 2-1 | 52-12 | 2-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 31, Sebastian reached the final after beating Roman Andres Burruchaga 6-3 7-5, Mariano Navone 6-4 1-6 6-3, Chun Hsin Tseng 6-4 6-1 and Camilo Ugo Carabelli 3-6 6-1 6-1.
In the semifinal against Ugo Carabelli, Sebastian recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (3-6 6-1 6-1). During the match, Baez scored 76 points vs Ugo Carabelli’s 59. The Argentine was extremely aggressive to blast 31 winners.
Regarding the service games, Baez scored 7 aces and he was extremely solid in conceding no double faults. Sebastian Baez lost the serve twice and he saved 3 break points. Furthermore, Baez put 75% of his first serves in, winning 63% (31/49) of the points behind his 1st serve and 69% (11/16) on the 2nd serve. The Argentine broke Ugo Carabelli 6 times after converting 60% of his break points (6/10).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Baez has conceded 2 set in this competition to conquer 55% of the points he played.
Baez has a solid match record in the last 10 years having won 63% of his matches (259-153). 8-2 on clay in 2025. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this event, Baez has an aggregate 220-91 record in the last years on clay.
Sebastian’s best result of the current season was getting to the semifinal in the Rosario Challenger and Rio de Janeiro.
Sebastian has an aggregate 8-4 win-loss record in 2025, 8-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Rio de Janeiro
Alexandre Muller
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 26-29 | 12-12 | 11-10 | 3-4 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 35-32 | 11-14 | 20-12 | 3-5 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 46-33 | 20-13 | 18-12 | 7-7 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 38-31 | 6-6 | 27-20 | 4-4 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 27-31 | 6-7 | 16-15 | 5-7 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 60, Alexandre reached the final after beating Joao Fonseca 6-1 7-6(4), Tomas Martin Etcheverry 7-5 7-6(5), Francisco Cerundolo 7-5 6-1 and Francisco Comesana 7-5 6-7(3) 6-3.
In the semifinal, Muller defeated Comesana (7-5 6-73 6-3). During the match Muller scored 115 points vs Comesana’s 102. Alexandre was very aggressive to blast 52 winners.
Talking about serving, Muller scored just 1 ace during the entire match and he committed only 2 double faults. Alexandre Muller lost the serve 3 times and he saved 5 break points. Furthermore, Muller put 63% of his first serves in, winning 73% (52/71) of the points behind his 1st serve and 46% (19/41) on the 2nd serve. Alexandre broke Comesana 5 times after converting 50% of his break points (5/10).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The French player has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 55% of the points he played.
His best result of the current year was conquering the title in Hong Kong where he overcame Kei Nishikori in the final 2-6 6-1 6-3.
Muller has an aggregate 9-3 win-loss record in 2025, 4-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Rio de Janeiro
Alexandre has never competed in this tournament before.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Baez | Muller |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 4 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 10 | 9 |
| Tot Games | 87 | 98 |
| Pts | 293-243 | 338-276 |
| Total Points | 536 | 614 |
| Winners | 126 | 154 |
| %Winners | 43% | 46% |
Both Baez and Muller played 4 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Sebastian Baez dropped 2 sets, while Alexandre Muller lost 1 set. Baez has played 1 set more than Muller (10 vs 9). However, it’s interesting to notice that Baez played 11 games less than Muller. Sebastian scored 126 winners (43% of the total points). On the other side, Alexandre blasted 154 winners (46%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Baez | Muller |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 11 | 10 |
| Avg per match | 2.8 | 2.5 |
| 1st in | 199/273 | 203/316 |
| %1st in | 73% | 64% |
| 1st pts | 126/199 | 154/203 |
| %1st pts | 63% | 76% |
| 2nd pts | 43/74 | 61/113 |
| %2nd pts | 58% | 54% |
Baez struck 11 aces (2.8 per match). Muller made 10 aces (2.5 per match). Baez won 63% points behind his first serve. He very solid his second serve to win 58% of the points. On the other side, Muller won 76% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 54% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Baez | Muller |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 20 | 14 |
| Converted | 20/41 | 14/33 |
| % Converted | 49% | 42% |
| Conceded | 29 | 21 |
| Saved | 18 | 15 |
| % Saved | 62% | 71% |
| Times Broken | 11 | 6 |
The Argentine broke his opponents 20 times with a 49% conversion rate. Sebastian surrendered his serve 11 times and he saved 62% of the break points that he conceded. The French player broke his opponents 14 times with a 42% conversion rate. Alexandre conceded his serve 6 times and he saved 71% of the break points that he conceded.
| Baez | ||||||
| R1 Andres |
R2 Navone |
1/4 Hsin |
1/2 Ugo |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 7-5 | 6-4 1-6 6-3 | 6-4 6-1 | 3-6 6-1 6-1 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 10 | |
| Tot Games | 21 | 26 | 17 | 23 | 87 | |
| pts | 68-52 | 81-83 | 68-49 | 76-59 | 293-243 | |
| Total points | 120 | 164 | 117 | 135 | 536 | |
| Winners | 28 | 38 | 29 | 31 | 126 | |
| %Winners | 41% | 47% | 43% | 41% | 43% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 11 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 | |
| 1st in | 45/63 | 61/88 | 44/57 | 49/65 | 199/273 | |
| % 1st in | 71% | 69% | 77% | 75% | 73% | |
| 1st pts | 28/45 | 38/61 | 29/44 | 31/49 | 126/199 | |
| % 1st pts | 62% | 62% | 66% | 63% | 63% | |
| 2nd pts | 14/18 | 11/27 | 7/13 | 11/16 | 43/74 | |
| % 2nd pts | 78% | 41% | 54% | 69% | 58% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 20 | |
| Converted | 4/7 | 5/12 | 5/12 | 6/10 | 20/41 | |
| Converted % | 57% | 42% | 42% | 60% | 49% | |
| Conceded | 6 | 15 | 3 | 5 | 29 | |
| Saved | 4/6 | 10/15 | 1/3 | 3/5 | 18 | |
| Saved % | 67% | 67% | 33% | 60% | 57% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 11 | |
| Muller | ||||||
| R1 Fonseca |
R2 Etcheverry |
1/4 Cerundolo |
1/2 Comesana |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-1 7-64 | 7-5 7-65 | 7-5 6-1 | 7-5 6-73 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | |
| Tot Games | 20 | 25 | 19 | 34 | 98 | |
| pts | 78-59 | 83-69 | 62-46 | 115-102 | 338-276 | |
| Total points | 137 | 152 | 108 | 217 | 614 | |
| Winners | 34 | 37 | 31 | 52 | 154 | |
| %Winners | 44% | 45% | 50% | 45% | 46% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 10 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | |
| 1st in | 44/66 | 47/78 | 41/60 | 71/112 | 203/316 | |
| % 1st in | 67% | 60% | 68% | 63% | 64% | |
| 1st pts | 34/44 | 37/47 | 31/41 | 52/71 | 154/203 | |
| % 1st pts | 77% | 79% | 76% | 73% | 76% | |
| 2nd pts | 15/22 | 17/31 | 10/19 | 19/41 | 61/113 | |
| % 2nd pts | 68% | 55% | 53% | 46% | 54% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 14 | |
| Converted | 2/10 | 3/5 | 4/8 | 5/10 | 14/33 | |
| Converted % | 20% | 60% | 50% | 50% | 42% | |
| Conceded | 2 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 21 | |
| Saved | 2/2 | 5/7 | 3/4 | 5/8 | 15 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 71% | 75% | 63% | 77% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | |
Head 2 Head
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Upcoming matches in the draw
- Alexandre MullerMuller – Sebastian BaezBaez (0-0) – H2H and prediction
