Andrey Rublev and Jack Draper will clash against each other in the final of the Qatar ExxonMobil Open for the 4^th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Saturday at 6:00 pm on CENTER COURT. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Jack Draper who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Jack Draper is the pick to win this match.
Jack Draper -> 1.82
Andrey Rublev -> 1.99

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Prediction and head to head Andrey Rublev vs. Jack Draper

This will be the 4^th time that Andrey Rublev and Jack Draper square off. The head to head is 3-0 for Rublev (see full H2H stats), 2-0 on hard.

The last time that they played each other, Rublev won 6-3 3-6 6-3 6-4 in the 4^th round in at the U.S. Open back in 2023.

Highlights Andrey Rublev vs Jack Draper – U.S. Open 04-September-2023

Andrey Rublev

Ranked no. 10, Andrey got to the final after defeating Alexander Bublik 6-3 6-4, Nuno Borges 6-3 6-4, Alex De Minaur 6-1 3-6 7-6(8) and Felix Auger-Aliassime 7-5 4-6 7-6(5).

In the semifinal, The Russian defeated Auger-Aliassime (7-5 4-6 7-6⁵). During the match, Rublev scored 110 points vs Auger-Aliassime’s 107. The Russian was exceptionally aggressive to blast 61 winners.

Regarding the service games, Rublev scored 8 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Andrey Rublev lost the serve once and he saved 3 break points. Furthermore, Rublev put 70% of his first serves in, winning 84% (61/73) of the points behind his 1st serve and 50% (16/32) on the 2nd serve. Rublev broke Auger-Aliassime once after converting 13% of his break points (1/8).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Russian has surrendered 2 set in this competition to win 53% of the points he played.

Rublev has a solid win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 65% of his matches (413-226). 4-2 on hard in 2025. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this event, Rublev has a composed 177-90 win-loss record in the last years on hard.

Rublev’s best result of the current year was reaching the semifinal in Montpellier and Doha.

Andrey has a composed 8-4 win-loss record in 2025, 4-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Doha

Jack Draper

Ranked no. 16, Jack reached the final after beating Alexei Popyrin 6-2 7-6(4), Christopher O Connell 6-2 6-1, Matteo Berrettini 4-6 6-4 6-3 and Jiri Lehecka 3-6 7-6(2) 6-3.

In the semifinal against Lehecka, Jack recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (3-6 7-6²

6-3). During the match Draper scored 108 points vs Lehecka’s 98. Draper was very aggressive to blast 45 winners.

Talking about serving, Draper bagged 14 aces and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Jack Draper lost the serve twice. Furthermore, Draper put 62% of his first serves in, winning 88% (45/51) of the points behind his 1st serve and 42% (13/31) on the 2nd serve. Draper broke Lehecka 3 times after converting 30% of his break points (3/10).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Draper has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 55% of the points he played.

Draper’s best result of the year was reaching the semifinal in Doha.

Jack has an overall 7-1 win-loss record in 2025, 7-1 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Doha

The Brit has never competed in this tournament before.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Rublev	Draper
Match played	4	4
Tot Set	10	10
Tot Games	102	96
Pts	343-299	333-277
Total Points	642	610
Winners	170	139
%Winners	50%	42%

Both Rublev and Draper played 4 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Andrey Rublev lost 2 sets, while Jack Draper lost 2 sets. Talking about their workload, Rublev and Draper have played the same amount of sets 10. However, Rublev played 6 games more than Draper. The Russian scored 170 winners (50% of the total points). On the other side, The Brit recorded 139 winners (42%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Rublev	Draper
Aces	33	35
Avg per match	8.3	8.8
1st in	226/309	173/260
%1st in	73%	67%
1st pts	170/226	139/173
%1st pts	75%	80%
2nd pts	50/83	53/87
%2nd pts	60%	61%

Rublev fired 33 aces (8.3 per match). Draper bagged 35 aces (8.8 per match). Rublev won 75% points behind his first serve. He was rock solid on his second serve to win 60% of the points. On the other side, Draper won 80% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 61% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Rublev	Draper
Won	9	12
Converted	9/30	12/36
% Converted	30%	33%
Conceded	11	7
Saved	7	4
% Saved	64%	57%
Times Broken	4	3

The Russian broke his opponents 9 times with a 30% conversion rate. Andrey dropped his serve 4 times and he saved 64% of the break points that he conceded. Draper broke his opponents 12 times with a 33% conversion rate. Jack conceded his serve 3 times and he saved 57% of the break points that he conceded.

Rublev
	R1 Bublik	R2 Borges	1/4 De Minaur	1/2 Auger-Aliassime	Total
Score	6-3 6-4	6-3 6-4	6-1 3-6 7-68	7-5 4-6 7-65
Tot Set	2	2	3	3	10
Tot Games	19	19	29	35	102
pts	65-52	60-41	108-99	110-107	343-299
Total points	117	101	207	217	642
Winners	33	33	43	61	170
%Winners	51%	55%	40%	55%	50%
SERVE
Aces	6	11	8	8	33
Double Faults	3	0	1	3	7
1st in	46/62	40/49	67/93	73/105	226/309
% 1st in	74%	82%	72%	70%	73%
1st pts	33/46	33/40	43/67	61/73	170/226
% 1st pts	72%	83%	64%	84%	75%
2nd pts	9/16	8/9	17/26	16/32	50/83
% 2nd pts	56%	89%	65%	50%	60%
Breaks
Won	3	2	3	1	9
Converted	3/5	2/6	3/11	1/8	9/30
Converted %	60%	33%	27%	13%	30%
Conceded	3	0	4	4	11
Saved	2/3	0/0	2/4	3/4	7
Saved %	67%	–	50%	75%	48%
Times Broken	1	0	2	1	4

Draper
	R1 Popyrin	R2 O	1/4 Berrettini	1/2 Lehecka	Total
Score	6-2 7-64	6-2 6-1	4-6 6-4 6-3	3-6 7-62 6-3
Tot Set	2	2	3	3	10
Tot Games	21	15	29	31	96
pts	66-57	58-30	101-92	108-98	333-277
Total points	123	88	193	206	610
Winners	34	15	45	45	139
%Winners	52%	26%	45%	42%	42%
SERVE
Aces	8	5	8	14	35
Double Faults	0	1	3	1	5
1st in	45/63	18/33	59/82	51/82	173/260
% 1st in	71%	55%	72%	62%	67%
1st pts	34/45	15/18	45/59	45/51	139/173
% 1st pts	76%	83%	76%	88%	80%
2nd pts	12/18	13/15	15/23	13/31	53/87
% 2nd pts	67%	87%	65%	42%	61%
Breaks
Won	2	5	2	3	12
Converted	2/4	5/9	2/13	3/10	12/36
Converted %	50%	56%	15%	30%	33%
Conceded	1	0	4	2	7
Saved	1/1	0/0	3/4	0/2	4
Saved %	100%	–	75%	0%	44%
Times Broken	0	0	1	2	3

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Jack DraperDraper – Andrey RublevRublev (0-3) – H2H and prediction