Alex De Minaur and Andrey Rublev will play each other in the quarter of the Qatar ExxonMobil Open for the 8th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Thursday at 2:30 pm on CENTER COURT. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Alex De Minaur who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Alex De Minaur is the pick to win this match.
Alex De Minaur -> 1.71
Andrey Rublev -> 2.14
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Prediction and head to head Alex De Minaur vs. Andrey Rublev
This will be the 8th time that Alex De Minaur and Andrey Rublev clash against each other. The head to head is 4-3 for De Minaur (see full H2H stats),but they are 1-1 on hard.
The last time that they fought against each other, De Minaur won 7-6(5) 4-6 6-3 in the quarter in Rotterdam back in 2024.
Highlights Alex De Minaur vs Andrey Rublev – Rotterdam 16-February-2024
Alex De Minaur
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 27-12 | 12-5 | 10-5 | 5-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 47-21 | 19-6 | 10-5 | 11-9 | 7-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 46-26 | 26-12 | 4-5 | 10-6 | 6-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 47-25 | 19-10 | 9-6 | 12-5 | 7-4 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 25-25 | 10-10 | 4-5 | 3-7 | 8-3 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 8, De Minaur reached the quarter after defeating Roman Safiullin 6-1 7-5 and Botic Van De Zandschulp 6-4 6-4.
In the 2nd round, The Australian had a good straight sets win against Van De Zandschulp (6-4 6-4). During the match, De Minaur scored 81 points vs Van De Zandschulp’s 64. De Minaur was exceptionally aggressive to blast 25 winners.
Talking about the service games, De Minaur scored 4 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Alex De Minaur was extremely effective on serve to win 74% (25/34) of his 1st serve and 67% (24/36) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. De Minaur broke Van De Zandschulp twice after converting 40% of his break points (2/5).
Overall Performance in this tournament
De Minaur hasn’t surrendered yet a set in this tournament to win 55% of the points he played.
De Minaur has a solid record in the last 10 years having won 64% of his matches (372-207). 8-1 on hard in 2025. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this competition, De Minaur has a composed 179-87 match record in the last years on hard.
De Minaur’s best result of the current season was getting to the final in Rotterdam.
Alex has a compiled 13-2 win-loss record in 2025, 8-1 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Doha
Alex has never competed in this tournament before.
Andrey Rublev
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 18-14 | 5-5 | 8-6 | 4-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 43-26 | 26-11 | 11-6 | 6-7 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 56-26 | 23-12 | 19-5 | 6-7 | 8-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 51-20 | 19-7 | 14-6 | 18-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 53-23 | 25-10 | 9-5 | 12-6 | 7-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 10, the Russian reached the quarter after defeating Alexander Bublik 6-3 6-4 and Nuno Borges 6-3 6-4.
In the 2nd round, The Russian had a good straight sets win against Borges (6-3 6-4). During the match Rublev scored 60 points vs Borges’s 41. The Russian was pretty aggressive to blast 33 winners.
Talking about serving, Rublev made 11 aces and he was exceptionally consistent in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Andrey Rublev was exceptionally efficient on serve to win 83% (33/40) of his 1st serve and 89% (8/9) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. The Russian broke Borges twice after converting 33% of his break points (2/6).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Rublev hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 57% of the points he played.
Rublev’s best result of the current year was reaching the semifinal in Montpellier.
Andrey has a composed 6-4 win-loss record in 2025, 2-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Doha
Previously, he won this tournament once in 2020. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | De Minaur | Rublev |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 2 |
| Tot Set | 4 | 4 |
| Tot Games | 39 | 38 |
| Pts | 153-123 | 125-93 |
| Total Points | 276 | 218 |
| Winners | 54 | 66 |
| %Winners | 35% | 53% |
Both De Minaur and Rublev played 2 matches. Both players have not surrendered a single set in this event so far. Talking about their workload, De Minaur and Rublev have played the same amount of sets 4. However, De Minaur played 1 game more than Rublev. The Australian scored 54 winners (35% of the total points). On the other side, The Russian managed to score 66 winners (53%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | De Minaur | Rublev |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 7 | 17 |
| Avg per match | 3.5 | 8.5 |
| 1st in | 72/138 | 86/111 |
| %1st in | 52% | 77% |
| 1st pts | 54/72 | 66/86 |
| %1st pts | 75% | 77% |
| 2nd pts | 39/66 | 17/25 |
| %2nd pts | 59% | 68% |
De Minaur recorded 7 aces (3.5 per match). Rublev blasted 17 aces (8.5 per match). De Minaur won 75% points on his first serve. He extremely effective on his second serve to win 59% of the points. On the other side, Rublev won 77% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 68% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | De Minaur | Rublev |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 6 | 5 |
| Converted | 6/13 | 5/11 |
| % Converted | 46% | 45% |
| Conceded | 9 | 3 |
| Saved | 8 | 2 |
| % Saved | 89% | 67% |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 |
De Minaur broke his opponents 6 times with a 46% conversion rate. The Australian surrendered his serve once and he saved 89% of the break points that he conceded. The Russian broke his opponents 5 times with a 45% conversion rate. Andrey conceded his serve once and he saved 67% of the break points that he conceded.
| De Minaur | ||||
| R1 Safiullin |
R2 Van De Zandschulp |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-1 7-5 | 6-4 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Tot Games | 19 | 20 | 39 | |
| pts | 72-59 | 81-64 | 153-123 | |
| Total points | 131 | 145 | 276 | |
| Winners | 29 | 25 | 54 | |
| %Winners | 40% | 31% | 35% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 3 | 4 | 7 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 3 | 5 | |
| 1st in | 38/68 | 34/70 | 72/138 | |
| % 1st in | 56% | 49% | 52% | |
| 1st pts | 29/38 | 25/34 | 54/72 | |
| % 1st pts | 76% | 74% | 75% | |
| 2nd pts | 15/30 | 24/36 | 39/66 | |
| % 2nd pts | 50% | 67% | 59% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 4 | 2 | 6 | |
| Converted | 4/8 | 2/5 | 6/13 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 40% | 46% | |
| Conceded | 5 | 4 | 9 | |
| Saved | 4/5 | 4/4 | 8 | |
| Saved % | 80% | 100% | 90% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Rublev | ||||
| R1 Bublik |
R2 Borges |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-4 | 6-3 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Tot Games | 19 | 19 | 38 | |
| pts | 65-52 | 60-41 | 125-93 | |
| Total points | 117 | 101 | 218 | |
| Winners | 33 | 33 | 66 | |
| %Winners | 51% | 55% | 53% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 6 | 11 | 17 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 0 | 3 | |
| 1st in | 46/62 | 40/49 | 86/111 | |
| % 1st in | 74% | 82% | 77% | |
| 1st pts | 33/46 | 33/40 | 66/86 | |
| % 1st pts | 72% | 83% | 77% | |
| 2nd pts | 9/16 | 8/9 | 17/25 | |
| % 2nd pts | 56% | 89% | 68% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 3 | 2 | 5 | |
| Converted | 3/5 | 2/6 | 5/11 | |
| Converted % | 60% | 33% | 45% | |
| Conceded | 3 | 0 | 3 | |
| Saved | 2/3 | 0/0 | 2 | |
| Saved % | 67% | – | 34% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
Head 2 Head
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Upcoming matches in the draw
- Andrey RublevRublev – Alex De MinaurDe Minaur (3-4) – H2H and prediction
- Matteo BerrettiniBerrettini – Tallon GriekspoorGriekspoor (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Felix Auger AliassimeAuger Aliassime – Daniil MedvedevMedvedev (1-7) – H2H and prediction
- Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
