Elena Rybakina and Paula Badosa will square off in the 3rd round of the Dubai Duty Free Championships for the 8th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Wednesday at 1:30 pm on COURT 1. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Elena Rybakina who should win in 3 sets.
Elena Rybakina -> 1.53
Paula Badosa -> 2.5
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Prediction and head to head Elena Rybakina vs. Paula Badosa
This will be the 8th time that Elena Rybakina and Paula Badosa play each other. The head to head is 4-3 for Badosa (see full H2H stats), but Rybakina leads 2-1 on hard.
The last time that they squared off, Rybakina won 3-6 7-5 6-3 in the 3rd round in Miami back in 2023.
Highlights Elena Rybakina vs Paula Badosa – Miami 25-March-2023
Elena Rybakina
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 59-19 | 37-13 | 9-3 | 8-0 | 5-3 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 43-11 | 23-5 | 12-2 | 2-2 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 47-15 | 31-11 | 11-2 | 0-0 | 5-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 40-21 | 18-12 | 9-5 | 5-2 | 8-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 33-23 | 18-14 | 6-4 | 2-2 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 7, Elena got to the 3rd round after defeating Unknown Player bye and Moyuka Uchijima 6-3 6-2.
In the 2nd round, The Kazakhstani had a good straight sets win against Uchijima (6-3 6-2). During the match, Rybakina scored 56 points vs Uchijima’s 42. Elena was quite aggressive to blast 26 winners.
Regarding the service games, Rybakina struck 7 aces and she committed only 2 double faults. Elena Rybakina was very efficient on serve to win 81% (26/32) of her 1st serve and 59% (13/22) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Elena broke Uchijima 3 times after converting 75% of her break points (3/4).
Rybakina has a fantastic match record in the last 10 years having won 70% of her matches (336-145). 11-4 on hard in 2025. Regarding her performance on the same surface of this competition, Rybakina has a compiled 160-74 record in the last years on hard.
Rybakina’s best result of the year was getting to the semifinal in Australia and Abu Dhabi.
Rybakina has an aggregate 11-4 win-loss record in 2025, 11-4 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Dubai
Paula Badosa
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 18-13 | 13-8 | 3-2 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 37-19 | 26-11 | 6-5 | 0-1 | 5-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 18-9 | 6-4 | 11-4 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 32-22 | 20-13 | 8-5 | 1-2 | 3-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 43-17 | 19-9 | 17-3 | 4-3 | 3-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 10, Paula got to the 3rd round after defeating Lulu Sun 6-3 6-4 and Elise Mertens 6-2 6-1.
In the 2nd round, Badosa had a good straight sets win against Mertens (6-2 6-1). During the match Badosa scored 58 points vs Mertens’s 28. Paula was quite aggressive to blast 26 winners.
Talking about serving, Badosa blasted 4 aces and she committed only 2 double faults. Paula Badosa was pretty effective on serve to win 87% (26/30) of her 1st serve and 56% (10/18) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Badosa broke Mertens 4 times after converting 57% of her break points (4/7).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Paula hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 62% of the points she played.
Paula’s best result of the year was reaching the semifinal in at the Australian Open .
Paula has a composed 9-5 win-loss record in 2025, 9-5 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Dubai
Previously, her best result was reaching the 1st round in 2022, 2023 and 2024. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Rybakina | Badosa |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 2 |
| Tot Set | 2 | 4 |
| Tot Games | 17 | 34 |
| Pts | 56-42 | 128-79 |
| Total Points | 98 | 207 |
| Winners | 26 | 53 |
| %Winners | 46% | 41% |
Rybakina played 1 match while Badosa competed in 2 matches. Both players have not dropped a single set in this event so far. Rybakina has played 2 set(s) less than Badosa (2 vs 4). Therefore, Rybakina played 17 games less than Badosa. The Kazakhstani scored 26 winners (46% of the total points). On the other side, Badosa blasted 53 winners (41%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Rybakina | Badosa |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 7 | 9 |
| Avg per match | 7 | 4.5 |
| 1st in | 32/54 | 61/103 |
| %1st in | 59% | 59% |
| 1st pts | 26/32 | 53/61 |
| %1st pts | 81% | 87% |
| 2nd pts | 13/22 | 23/42 |
| %2nd pts | 59% | 55% |
Rybakina struck 7 aces . Badosa managed to score 9 aces (4.5 per match). Rybakina won 81% points behind her first serve. She very solid her second serve to win 59% of the points. On the other side, Badosa won 87% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 55% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Rybakina | Badosa |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 3 | 7 |
| Converted | 3/4 | 7/21 |
| % Converted | 75% | 33% |
| Conceded | 2 | 4 |
| Saved | 2 | 3 |
| % Saved | 100% | 75% |
| Times Broken | 0 | 1 |
Elena broke her opponent 3 times with a 75% conversion rate. Elena pretty effective on her serve as she has never lost a single service game after saving 2 break points. The Spaniard broke her opponents 7 times with a 33% conversion rate. Paula conceded her serve once and she saved 75% of the break points that she conceded.
| Rybakina | |||
| R2 Uchijima | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
| Tot Games | 17 | 17 | |
| pts | 56-42 | 56-42 | |
| Total points | 98 | 98 | |
| Winners | 26 | 26 | |
| %Winners | 46% | 46% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 7 | 7 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 2 | |
| 1st in | 32/54 | 32/54 | |
| % 1st in | 59% | 59% | |
| 1st pts | 26/32 | 26/32 | |
| % 1st pts | 81% | 81% | |
| 2nd pts | 13/22 | 13/22 | |
| % 2nd pts | 59% | 59% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 3 | 3 | |
| Converted | 3/4 | 3/4 | |
| Converted % | 75% | 75% | |
| Conceded | 2 | 2 | |
| Saved | 2/2 | 2 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 100% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | |
| Badosa | ||||
| R1 Sun | R2 Mertens | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-4 | 6-2 6-1 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Tot Games | 19 | 15 | 34 | |
| pts | 70-51 | 58-28 | 128-79 | |
| Total points | 121 | 86 | 207 | |
| Winners | 27 | 26 | 53 | |
| %Winners | 39% | 45% | 41% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 5 | 4 | 9 | |
| Double Faults | 6 | 2 | 8 | |
| 1st in | 31/55 | 30/48 | 61/103 | |
| % 1st in | 56% | 63% | 59% | |
| 1st pts | 27/31 | 26/30 | 53/61 | |
| % 1st pts | 87% | 87% | 87% | |
| 2nd pts | 13/24 | 10/18 | 23/42 | |
| % 2nd pts | 54% | 56% | 55% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 3 | 4 | 7 | |
| Converted | 3/14 | 4/7 | 7/21 | |
| Converted % | 21% | 57% | 33% | |
| Conceded | 3 | 1 | 4 | |
| Saved | 2/3 | 1/1 | 3 | |
| Saved % | 67% | 100% | 167% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
Tennis Scores in Dubai
- Jasmine PaoliniPaolini – Eva LysLys (6-2 7-5) – See score progression
- Elena RybakinaRybakina – Moyuka UchijimaUchijima (6-3 6-2) – See score progression
- Paula BadosaBadosa – Elise MertensMertens (6-2 6-1) – See score progression
- Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Victoria AzarenkaAzarenka (6-0 6-2) – See score progression
- Linda NoskovaNoskova – Diana ShnaiderShnaider (7-68 4-6 6-3) – See score progression
- David PichlerPichler – Maxime TchoutakianTchoutakian (6-0 6-4) – See score progression
- Christopher O ConnellO Connell – Maxim RatniukRatniuk (6-1 6-1) – See score progression
- Ljubomir CelebicCelebic – Martins PodzusPodzus (6-4 6-4) – See score progression
- Juan Pablo FicovichPablo Ficovich – Maxim KrapivinKrapivin (6-1 6-3) – See score progression
- Pierre FaivreFaivre – Duje AjdukovicAjdukovic (6-3 6-2) – See score progression
- Artem DubrivnyyDubrivnyy – Sebastian PrechtelPrechtel (6-4 6-4) – See score progression
- Gonzalo VillanuevaVillanueva – Kenneth RaismaRaisma (7-5 1-6 6-2) – See score progression
- Francisco CerundoloCerundolo – Stefan MicovMicov (2-6 6-4 6-1) – See score progression
- Linda NoskovaNoskova – Diana ShnaiderShnaider (7-6(8) 4-6 6-3) – See score progression
- Jessica PegulaPegula – Liudmila SamsonovaSamsonova (6-0 6-4) – See score progression
- Elena RybakinaRybakina – Moyuka UchijimaUchijima (6-3 6-2) – See score progression
- Paula Badosa GibertBadosa Gibert – Elise MertensMertens (6-2 6-1) – See score progression
- Jasmine PaoliniPaolini – Eva LysLys (6-2 7-5) – See score progression
- Dayana YastremskaYastremska – Anastasia PotapovaPotapova (6-2 6-3) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Veronika KudermetovaKudermetova (3-2) – H2H and prediction
- Clara TausonTauson – Elina SvitolinaSvitolina (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Cori GauffGauff – Mccartney KesslerKessler (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Emma RaducanuRaducanu – Karolina MuchovaMuchova (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Sorana CirsteaCirstea – Alycia ParksParks (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Belinda BencicBencic – Emma NavarroNavarro (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Sofia KeninKenin – Marta KostyukKostyuk (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Qinwen ZhengZheng – Peyton StearnsStearns (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Marketa VondrousovaVondrousova – (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Elena RybakinaRybakina – Paula Badosa GibertBadosa Gibert (3-4) – H2H and prediction
- Dayana YastremskaYastremska – Iga SwiatekSwiatek (1-0) – H2H and prediction