Christopher O Connell and Pavel Kotov will play each other in the qualifications of the Qatar ExxonMobil Open for the 4th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Sunday at 1:00 pm on GRANDSTAND 2. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Christopher O Connell who should win in 2 sets.
Christopher O Connell -> 1.28
Pavel Kotov -> 3.4
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Prediction and head to head Christopher O Connell vs. Pavel Kotov
This will be the 4th time that Christopher O Connell and Pavel Kotov square off. The head to head is 2-1 for O Connell (see full H2H stats), 2-0 on hard.
The last time that they played, O Connell won 6-4 7-5 in the 1st round in Chengdu back in 2024.
Christopher O Connell
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 12-8 | 10-7 | 2-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 28-26 | 23-16 | 2-4 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 38-34 | 19-18 | 11-9 | 4-3 | 4-4 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 50-25 | 30-16 | 12-5 | 3-1 | 5-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 22-16 | 14-9 | 3-3 | 1-1 | 4-3 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 79, the Australian got to the qualifications after beating Yosuke Watanuki 6-7(3) 7-6(4) 6-3.
In the qualifications against Watanuki, Christopher recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (6-73 7-64 6-3). During the match, O Connell scored 117 points vs Watanuki’s 110. O Connell was pretty aggressive to blast 62 winners.
Regarding the service games, O Connell scored 13 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Christopher O Connell was exceptionally effective on serve to win 78% (62/80) of his 1st serve and 59% (29/49) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. The Australian broke Watanuki once after converting 25% of his break points (1/4).
O Connell has a solid record in the last 10 years having won 62% of his matches (328-199). 2-3 on hard in 2025. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this competition, O Connell has an aggregate 138-93 record in the last years on hard.
Christopher has an aggregate 2-3 win-loss record in 2025, 2-3 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Doha
Pavel Kotov
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 5-10 | 5-9 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 20-25 | 9-11 | 11-9 | 0-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 45-32 | 13-14 | 20-12 | 9-2 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 37-20 | 5-3 | 20-9 | 12-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 29-25 | 5-5 | 7-11 | 17-9 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 103, Pavel got to the qualifications after defeating Jozef Kovalik 7-5 4-6 6-4.
In the qualifications, Pavel defeated Kovalik (7-5 4-6 6-4). During the match Kotov scored 112 points vs Kovalik’s 105. Kotov was quite aggressive to blast 57 winners.
Talking about serving, Kotov struck 6 aces and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Pavel Kotov lost the serve 4 times and he saved 14 break points. Furthermore, Kotov put 75% of his first serves in, winning 63% (57/91) of the points behind his 1st serve and 48% (15/31) on the 2nd serve. Kotov broke Kovalik 5 times after converting 45% of his break points (5/11).
Kotov has a composed 2-4 win-loss record in 2025, 2-4 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Doha
Previously, his best result was reaching the 2nd round in 2024. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | O Connell | Kotov |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 1 |
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 |
| Tot Games | 35 | 32 |
| Pts | 117-110 | 112-105 |
| Total Points | 227 | 217 |
| Winners | 62 | 57 |
| %Winners | 53% | 51% |
Both O Connell and Kotov played 1 match. Also both players started their run from the qualifications.Both players lost a set in the event. Christopher O Connell surrendered 1 set, while Pavel Kotov lost 1 set. Talking about their workload, O Connell and Kotov have played the same amount of sets 3. However, O Connell played 3 games more than Kotov. Christopher scored 62 winners (53% of the total points). On the other side, Kotov bagged 57 winners (51%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | O Connell | Kotov |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 13 | 6 |
| Avg per match | 13 | 6 |
| 1st in | 80/129 | 91/122 |
| %1st in | 62% | 75% |
| 1st pts | 62/80 | 57/91 |
| %1st pts | 78% | 63% |
| 2nd pts | 29/49 | 15/31 |
| %2nd pts | 59% | 48% |
O Connell scored 13 aces . Kotov managed to score 6 aces . O Connell won 78% points on his first serve. He pretty effective on his second serve to win 59% of the points. On the other side, Kotov won 63% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 48% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | O Connell | Kotov |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 1 | 5 |
| Converted | 1/4 | 5/11 |
| % Converted | 25% | 45% |
| Conceded | 6 | 18 |
| Saved | 6 | 14 |
| % Saved | 100% | 78% |
| Times Broken | 0 | 4 |
O Connell broke his opponent once with a 25% conversion rate. Christopher was rock solid on his serve as he has never conceded a single service game after saving 6 break points. Kotov broke his opponent 5 times with a 45% conversion rate. The Russian conceded his serve 4 times and he saved 78% of the break points that he conceded.
| O Connell | |||
| Q1 Watanuki | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-73 7-64 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | |
| Tot Games | 35 | 35 | |
| pts | 117-110 | 117-110 | |
| Total points | 227 | 227 | |
| Winners | 62 | 62 | |
| %Winners | 53% | 53% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 13 | 13 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 3 | |
| 1st in | 80/129 | 80/129 | |
| % 1st in | 62% | 62% | |
| 1st pts | 62/80 | 62/80 | |
| % 1st pts | 78% | 78% | |
| 2nd pts | 29/49 | 29/49 | |
| % 2nd pts | 59% | 59% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 1 | 1 | |
| Converted | 1/4 | 1/4 | |
| Converted % | 25% | 25% | |
| Conceded | 6 | 6 | |
| Saved | 6/6 | 6 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 100% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | |
| Kotov | |||
| Q1 Kovalik | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-5 4-6 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | |
| Tot Games | 32 | 32 | |
| pts | 112-105 | 112-105 | |
| Total points | 217 | 217 | |
| Winners | 57 | 57 | |
| %Winners | 51% | 51% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 6 | 6 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 1 | |
| 1st in | 91/122 | 91/122 | |
| % 1st in | 75% | 75% | |
| 1st pts | 57/91 | 57/91 | |
| % 1st pts | 63% | 63% | |
| 2nd pts | 15/31 | 15/31 | |
| % 2nd pts | 48% | 48% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 5 | 5 | |
| Converted | 5/11 | 5/11 | |
| Converted % | 45% | 45% | |
| Conceded | 18 | 18 | |
| Saved | 14/18 | 14 | |
| Saved % | 78% | 78% | |
| Times Broken | 4 | 4 | |
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