Casper Ruud and Denis Shapovalov will clash against each other in the final of the Dallas Open for the 3rd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Sunday at 1:00 pm on CENTER COURT. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Casper Ruud who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Casper Ruud is the pick to win this match.
Casper Ruud -> 1.833
Denis Shapovalov -> 1.97
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Prediction and head to head Casper Ruud vs. Denis Shapovalov
This will be the 3rd time that Casper Ruud and Denis Shapovalov fight against each other. The head to head is 2-0 for Ruud (see full H2H stats), but they have never competed against each other on indoor hard courts.
The last time that they squared off, Ruud won 7-6(7) 7-5 in the quarter in Rome back in 2022.
Highlights Casper Ruud vs Denis Shapovalov – Rome 13-May-2022
Casper Ruud
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 28-11 | 8-5 | 14-5 | 6-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 51-25 | 21-9 | 24-7 | 5-8 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 37-23 | 12-12 | 22-8 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 51-22 | 18-8 | 25-7 | 7-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 57-17 | 16-6 | 28-5 | 11-4 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 5, the Norwegian reached the final after beating James Duckworth 7-5 4-6 6-2, Michael Mmoh 6-1 6-4, Yoshihito Nishioka 7-5 3-2 ret. and Jaume Antoni Munar Clar 6-2 2-6 7-6(4).
In the semifinal, The Norwegian defeated Munar Clar (6-2 2-6 7-64).During the match, Ruud scored less points (3) than Munar Clar. In fact, the world no. 5 won 89 points vs Munar Clar’s. That means that Ruud was more focused during the important points. Ruud was exceptionally aggressive to blast 44 winners.
Talking about the service games, Ruud recorded 4 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Casper Ruud lost the serve 3 times and he saved 3 break points. Furthermore, Ruud put 72% of his first serves in, winning 68% (44/65) of the points behind his 1st serve and 40% (10/25) on the 2nd serve. Ruud broke Munar Clar 3 times after converting 50% of his break points (3/6).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Casper has dropped 2 set in this tournament to win 53% of the points he played.
Ruud has a solid record in the last 10 years having won 65% of his matches (400-212). 6-0 on indoor hard courts in 2025. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this competition, Ruud has a composed 56-34 match record in the last years on indoor hard courts.
The Norwegian’s best result of the current year was getting to the semifinal in Dallas.
The Norwegian has an overall 9-1 win-loss record in 2025, 6-0 on indoor hard courts (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Dallas
Casper has never competed in this tournament before.
Denis Shapovalov
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 19-16 | 11-8 | 2-5 | 5-0 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 33-25 | 9-10 | 5-6 | 16-6 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 13-13 | 6-6 | 3-3 | 0-1 | 4-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 34-26 | 22-12 | 4-4 | 7-6 | 1-4 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 30-23 | 11-11 | 7-6 | 4-3 | 8-3 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 54, Shapovalov reached the final after beating Miomir Kecmanovic 6-3 6-7(5) 6-3, Taylor Fritz 2-6 6-3 7-6(2), Tomas Machac 7-6(5) 6-0 and Tommy Paul 7-5 6-3.
In the semifinal, The Canadian had a good straight sets win against Paul (7-5 6-3). During the match Shapovalov scored 73 points vs Paul’s 62. Denis was very aggressive to blast 39 winners.
About the serving games, Shapovalov scored 6 aces and he committed only 4 double faults. Denis Shapovalov conceded no breaks for the entire match to save 3 break points. Furthermore, Shapovalov put 64% of his first serves in, winning 78% (39/50) of the points behind his 1st serve and 46% (13/28) on the 2nd serve. Denis broke Paul twice after converting 67% of his break points (2/3).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Canadian has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 54% of the points he played.
Denis’s best result of the season was reaching the semifinal in Dallas.
The Canadian has an overall 6-3 win-loss record in 2025, 4-0 on indoor hard courts (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Ruud | Shapovalov |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 4 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 11 | 10 |
| Tot Games | 93 | 101 |
| Pts | 205-177 | 333-287 |
| Total Points | 382 | 620 |
| Winners | 99 | 158 |
| %Winners | 48% | 47% |
Both Ruud and Shapovalov played 4 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Casper Ruud lost 2 sets, while Denis Shapovalov surrendered 2 sets. Ruud has played 1 set more than Shapovalov (11 vs 10). However, it’s interesting to notice that Ruud played 8 games less than Shapovalov. Ruud scored 99 winners (48% of the total points). On the other side, Denis bagged 158 winners (47%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Ruud | Shapovalov |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 15 | 47 |
| Avg per match | 3.8 | 11.8 |
| 1st in | 141/188 | 199/332 |
| %1st in | 75% | 60% |
| 1st pts | 99/141 | 158/199 |
| %1st pts | 70% | 79% |
| 2nd pts | 25/47 | 71/133 |
| %2nd pts | 53% | 53% |
Ruud managed to score 15 aces (3.8 per match). Shapovalov struck 47 aces (11.8 per match). Ruud won 70% points on his first serve. He very solid his second serve to win 53% of the points. On the other side, Shapovalov won 79% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 53% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Ruud | Shapovalov |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 9 | 10 |
| Converted | 9/21 | 10/17 |
| % Converted | 43% | 59% |
| Conceded | 9 | 19 |
| Saved | 4 | 15 |
| % Saved | 44% | 79% |
| Times Broken | 5 | 4 |
The Norwegian broke his opponents 9 times with a 43% conversion rate. The Norwegian dropped his serve 5 times and he saved 44% of the break points that he conceded. Shapovalov broke his opponents 10 times with a 59% conversion rate. Shapovalov conceded his serve 4 times and he saved 79% of the break points that he conceded.
| Ruud | ||||||
| R1 Duckworth |
R2 Mmoh |
1/4 Nishioka |
1/2 Munar Clar |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-5 4-6 6-2 | 6-1 6-4 | 7-5 3-2 ret. | 6-2 2-6 7-64 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | |
| Tot Games | 30 | 17 | 17 | 29 | 93 | |
| pts | – | 56-36 | 60-49 | 89-92 | 205-177 | |
| Total points | 0 | 92 | 109 | 181 | 382 | |
| Winners | 26 | 29 | 44 | 99 | ||
| %Winners | 0% | 46% | 48% | 49% | 48% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 0 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 15 | |
| Double Faults | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | ||
| 1st in | / | 37/49 | 39/49 | 65/90 | 141/188 | |
| % 1st in | 0% | 76% | 80% | 72% | 75% | |
| 1st pts | / | 26/37 | 29/39 | 44/65 | 99/141 | |
| % 1st pts | 0% | 70% | 74% | 68% | 70% | |
| 2nd pts | / | 9/12 | 6/10 | 10/25 | 25/47 | |
| % 2nd pts | 0% | 75% | 60% | 40% | 53% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 4 | 2 | 3 | 9 | ||
| Converted | / | 4/8 | 2/7 | 3/6 | 9/21 | |
| Converted % | 0% | 50% | 29% | 50% | 43% | |
| Conceded | 2 | 1 | 6 | 9 | ||
| Saved | 0/ | 1/2 | 0/1 | 3/6 | 4 | |
| Saved % | – | 50% | 0% | 50% | 25% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | ||
| Shapovalov | ||||||
| R1 Kecmanovic |
R2 Fritz |
1/4 Machac |
1/2 Paul |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-75 6-3 | 2-6 6-3 7-62 | 7-65 6-0 | 7-5 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10 | |
| Tot Games | 31 | 30 | 19 | 21 | 101 | |
| pts | 103-88 | 93-91 | 64-46 | 73-62 | 333-287 | |
| Total points | 191 | 184 | 110 | 135 | 620 | |
| Winners | 52 | 45 | 22 | 39 | 158 | |
| %Winners | 50% | 48% | 34% | 53% | 47% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 20 | 15 | 6 | 6 | 47 | |
| Double Faults | 4 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 20 | |
| 1st in | 59/98 | 60/102 | 30/54 | 50/78 | 199/332 | |
| % 1st in | 60% | 59% | 56% | 64% | 60% | |
| 1st pts | 52/59 | 45/60 | 22/30 | 39/50 | 158/199 | |
| % 1st pts | 88% | 75% | 73% | 78% | 79% | |
| 2nd pts | 19/39 | 23/42 | 16/24 | 13/28 | 71/133 | |
| % 2nd pts | 49% | 55% | 67% | 46% | 53% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 10 | |
| Converted | 3/6 | 1/2 | 4/6 | 2/3 | 10/17 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 50% | 67% | 67% | 59% | |
| Conceded | 5 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 19 | |
| Saved | 4/5 | 7/9 | 1/2 | 3/3 | 15 | |
| Saved % | 80% | 78% | 50% | 100% | 77% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
Head 2 Head
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Upcoming matches in the draw
- Denis ShapovalovShapovalov – Casper RuudRuud (0-2) – H2H and prediction
