Pablo Carreno-Busta and Alejandro Moro Canas will square off in the final of the Tenerife 1 Challenger for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Sunday at 11:30 am on CENTER COURT. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Pablo Carreno-Busta who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Pablo Carreno-Busta is the pick to win this match.
Pablo Carreno-Busta -> 1.23
Alejandro Moro Canas -> 3.82
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Prediction and head to head Pablo Carreno-Busta vs. Alejandro Moro Canas
There is no head to head record between Pablo Carreno-Busta and Alejandro Moro Canas since this will be the first time that they will fight against each other in the main tour.
Pablo Carreno-Busta
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 14-6 | 13-5 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 10-12 | 7-6 | 2-4 | 1-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 2-5 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 37-25 | 19-8 | 11-9 | 5-5 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 38-18 | 14-8 | 17-4 | 5-4 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 149, Pablo got to the final after defeating Federico Arnaboldi 6-0 7-6(2), Giovanni Fonio 6-1 6-2, Vilius Gaubas 4-6 6-3 7-6(3) and Pol Martin Tiffon 6-4 6-0.
In the semifinal, The Spaniard had a good straight sets win against Martin Tiffon (6-4 6-0). During the match, Carreno-Busta scored 68 points vs Martin Tiffon’s 47. Pablo was very aggressive to blast 31 winners.
Talking about the service games, Carreno-Busta bagged 4 aces and he was very consistent in conceding no double faults. Pablo Carreno-Busta conceded no breaks for the entire match to save 9 break points. Furthermore, Carreno-Busta put 73% of his first serves in, winning 69% (31/45) of the points behind his 1st serve and 65% (11/17) on the 2nd serve. Pablo broke Martin Tiffon 4 times after converting 36% of his break points (4/11).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Pablo has surrendered 1 set in this competition to conquer 56% of the points he played.
Carreno-Busta has a solid match record in the last 10 years having won 60% of his matches (258-173). 6-4 on hard in 2025. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Carreno-Busta has an aggregate 121-71 win-loss record in the last years on hard.
The Spaniard’s best result of the season was reaching the semifinal in the Tenerife 1 Challenger.
The Spaniard has a compiled 7-5 win-loss record in 2025, 6-4 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Tenerife 1 Challenger
Pablo has never competed in this tournament before.
Alejandro Moro Canas
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 8-6 | 8-4 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 35-28 | 11-8 | 17-13 | 3-5 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 39-31 | 17-11 | 17-15 | 5-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 40-18 | 20-8 | 20-10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 35-16 | 30-8 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 164, Alejandro got to the final after beating Denis Yevseyev 6-1 4-6 6-3, Pablo Llamas Ruiz 7-6(4) 6-4, Benjamin Hassan 6-4 3-6 6-3 and Henrique Rocha 6-2 6-7(6) 6-0.
In the semifinal, Alejandro defeated Rocha (6-2 6-76 6-0). During the match Moro scored 99 points vs Rocha’s 74. Alejandro was extremely aggressive to blast 39 winners.
Talking about serving, Moro bagged 3 aces and he was pretty consistent in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Alejandro Moro Canas lost the serve twice and he saved 5 break points. Furthermore, Moro put 77% of his first serves in, winning 63% (39/62) of the points behind his 1st serve and 74% (14/19) on the 2nd serve. Moro broke Rocha 7 times after converting 50% of his break points (7/14).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Moro has conceded 3 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points he played.
The Spaniard’s best result of the season was reaching the semifinal in the Tenerife 1 Challenger.
Moro has an overall 7-4 win-loss record in 2025, 7-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Tenerife 1 Challenger
Previously, his best result was reaching the quarter in 2023. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Carreno-Busta | Moro |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 4 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 9 | 11 |
| Tot Games | 82 | 104 |
| Pts | 306-240 | 355-314 |
| Total Points | 546 | 669 |
| Winners | 136 | 158 |
| %Winners | 44% | 45% |
Both Carreno-Busta and Moro played 4 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Pablo Carreno-Busta dropped 1 set, while Alejandro Moro Canas conceded 3 sets. Carreno-Busta has played 2 set(s) less than Moro (9 vs 11). Therefore, Carreno-Busta played 22 games less than Moro. Carreno-Busta scored 136 winners (44% of the total points). On the other side, The Spaniard recorded 158 winners (45%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Carreno-Busta | Moro |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 14 | 10 |
| Avg per match | 3.5 | 2.5 |
| 1st in | 203/274 | 246/334 |
| %1st in | 74% | 74% |
| 1st pts | 136/203 | 158/246 |
| %1st pts | 67% | 64% |
| 2nd pts | 43/71 | 49/88 |
| %2nd pts | 61% | 56% |
Carreno-Busta bagged 14 aces (3.5 per match). Moro made 10 aces (2.5 per match). Carreno-Busta won 67% points on his first serve. He pretty solid on his second serve to win 61% of the points. On the other side, Moro won 64% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 56% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Carreno-Busta | Moro |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 17 | 20 |
| Converted | 17/44 | 20/43 |
| % Converted | 39% | 47% |
| Conceded | 22 | 29 |
| Saved | 16 | 19 |
| % Saved | 73% | 66% |
| Times Broken | 6 | 10 |
Carreno-Busta broke his opponents 17 times with a 39% conversion rate. The Spaniard conceded his serve 6 times and he saved 73% of the break points that he conceded. Moro broke his opponents 20 times with a 47% conversion rate. Moro conceded his serve 10 times and he saved 66% of the break points that he conceded.
| Carreno-Busta | ||||||
| R1 Arnaboldi |
R2 Fonio |
1/4 Gaubas |
1/2 Martin |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-0 7-62 | 6-1 6-2 | 4-6 6-3 7-63 | 6-4 6-0 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 | |
| Tot Games | 19 | 15 | 32 | 16 | 82 | |
| pts | 83-62 | 56-37 | 99-94 | 68-47 | 306-240 | |
| Total points | 145 | 93 | 193 | 115 | 546 | |
| Winners | 32 | 24 | 49 | 31 | 136 | |
| %Winners | 39% | 43% | 49% | 46% | 44% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 14 | |
| Double Faults | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| 1st in | 50/69 | 35/47 | 73/96 | 45/62 | 203/274 | |
| % 1st in | 72% | 74% | 76% | 73% | 74% | |
| 1st pts | 32/50 | 24/35 | 49/73 | 31/45 | 136/203 | |
| % 1st pts | 64% | 69% | 67% | 69% | 67% | |
| 2nd pts | 12/19 | 10/12 | 10/23 | 11/17 | 43/71 | |
| % 2nd pts | 63% | 83% | 43% | 65% | 61% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 17 | |
| Converted | 5/11 | 4/10 | 4/12 | 4/11 | 17/44 | |
| Converted % | 45% | 40% | 33% | 36% | 39% | |
| Conceded | 6 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 22 | |
| Saved | 4/6 | 1/1 | 2/6 | 9/9 | 16 | |
| Saved % | 67% | 100% | 33% | 100% | 75% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 6 | |
| Moro | ||||||
| R1 Yevseyev |
R2 Llamas Ruiz |
1/4 Hassan |
1/2 Rocha |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-1 4-6 6-3 | 7-64 6-4 | 6-4 3-6 6-3 | 6-2 6-76 6-0 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 | |
| Tot Games | 26 | 23 | 28 | 27 | 104 | |
| pts | 83-77 | 86-77 | 87-86 | 99-74 | 355-314 | |
| Total points | 160 | 163 | 173 | 173 | 669 | |
| Winners | 43 | 35 | 41 | 39 | 158 | |
| %Winners | 52% | 41% | 47% | 39% | 45% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 6 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 10 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 8 | |
| 1st in | 62/87 | 60/81 | 62/85 | 62/81 | 246/334 | |
| % 1st in | 71% | 74% | 73% | 77% | 74% | |
| 1st pts | 43/62 | 35/60 | 41/62 | 39/62 | 158/246 | |
| % 1st pts | 69% | 58% | 66% | 63% | 64% | |
| 2nd pts | 12/25 | 13/21 | 10/23 | 14/19 | 49/88 | |
| % 2nd pts | 48% | 62% | 43% | 74% | 56% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 5 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 20 | |
| Converted | 5/8 | 4/11 | 4/10 | 7/14 | 20/43 | |
| Converted % | 63% | 36% | 40% | 50% | 47% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 29 | |
| Saved | 2/4 | 8/11 | 4/7 | 5/7 | 19 | |
| Saved % | 50% | 73% | 57% | 71% | 63% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 10 | |
Head 2 Head
LWWWWWWWWW
LWLWWWWLLL 
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Pablo Carreno-BustaCarreno-Busta – Alejandro Moro CanasMoro Canas (0-0) – H2H and prediction
