Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Murkel Dellien will face off in the semifinal of the Rosario Challenger for the 8th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Saturday at 5:00 pm on CANCHA CENTRAL. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Camilo Ugo Carabelli who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Camilo Ugo Carabelli is the pick to win this match.
Camilo Ugo Carabelli -> 1.39
Murkel Dellien -> 2.81
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Prediction and head to head Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs. Murkel Dellien
This will be the 8th time that Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Murkel Dellien square off. The head to head is 6-1 for Ugo Carabelli (see full H2H stats), 6-1 on clay.
The last time that they fought against each other, Ugo Carabelli won 6-7(4) 7-5 6-3 in the 2nd round in the Montevideo Challenger back in 2024.
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
6 - 2win/loss
65
61
LWWLWLWWWL | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 17-8 | 3-3 | 14-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 58-30 | 6-5 | 52-24 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 41-26 | 0-2 | 41-24 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 39-24 | 3-4 | 36-19 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 43-24 | 4-2 | 39-22 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 110, Ugo Carabelli got to the semifinal after defeating Diego Schwartzman 4-6 6-3 6-4, Guido Ivan Justo 7-5 2-6 7-5 and Juan Pablo Ficovich 3-6 6-1 6-0.
In the quarter against Pablo Ficovich, Ugo Carabelli recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (3-6 6-1 6-0). During the match, Ugo Carabelli scored 75 points vs Pablo Ficovich’s 54. Camilo was exceptionally aggressive to blast 28 winners.
Talking about the service games, Ugo Carabelli struck 3 aces and he was extremely steady in conceding no double faults. Overall, Camilo Ugo Carabelli was exceptionally effective on serve to win 72% (28/39) of his 1st serve and 64% (16/25) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Ugo Carabelli broke Pablo Ficovich 5 times after converting 83% of his break points (5/6).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Ugo Carabelli has conceded 3 set in this competition to conquer 53% of the points he played.
Ugo Carabelli has a solid record in the last 10 years having won 64% of his matches (351-200). 5-1 on clay in 2025. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this competition, Ugo Carabelli has an overall 318-169 win-loss record in the last years on clay.
Camilo has an aggregate 5-2 win-loss record in 2025, 5-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Rosario Challenger
The Argentine has never competed in this tournament before.
Murkel Dellien
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 9-8 | 0-1 | 9-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 48-31 | 1-1 | 47-29 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 49-32 | 0-0 | 49-32 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 55-28 | 1-4 | 54-24 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 18-13 | 3-2 | 15-11 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 200, Murkel reached the semifinal after beating Mateus Alves 7-5 3-6 6-1, Felipe Meligeni Alves 4-6 7-6(2) 6-3 and Juan Manuel Cerundolo 7-6(6) 4-6 7-5.
In the quarter, Alejandro Dellien Velasco defeated Manuel Cerundolo (7-66 4-6 7-5).During the match Alejandro Dellien Velasco scored less points (1) than Manuel Cerundolo. In fact, the world no. 110 won 108 points vs Manuel Cerundolo’s. That means that Alejandro Dellien Velasco was more focused during the important points. Alejandro Dellien Velasco was extremely aggressive to blast 49 winners.
Talking about serving, Alejandro Dellien Velasco scored just 1 ace during the entire match and he committed only 3 double faults. Murkel Dellien lost the serve 5 times and he saved 5 break points. Furthermore, Alejandro Dellien Velasco put 65% of his first serves in, winning 72% (49/68) of the points behind his 1st serve and 39% (14/36) on the 2nd serve. Alejandro Dellien Velasco broke Manuel Cerundolo 5 times after converting 50% of his break points (5/10).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Murkel has conceded 3 set in the tournament to win 52% of the points he played.
The Bolivian has a composed 6-4 win-loss record in 2025, 6-3 on clay (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Ugo Carabelli | Alejandro Dellien Velasco |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 3 | 3 |
| Tot Set | 9 | 9 |
| Tot Games | 83 | 95 |
| Pts | 265-238 | 314-295 |
| Total Points | 503 | 609 |
| Winners | 110 | 146 |
| %Winners | 42% | 46% |
Both Ugo Carabelli and Alejandro Dellien Velasco played 3 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Camilo Ugo Carabelli lost 3 sets, while Murkel Dellien conceded 3 sets. Talking about their workload, Ugo Carabelli and Alejandro Dellien Velasco have played the same amount of sets 9. However, Ugo Carabelli played 12 games less than Alejandro Dellien Velasco. The Argentine scored 110 winners (42% of the total points). On the other side, The Bolivian struck 146 winners (46%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Ugo Carabelli | Alejandro Dellien Velasco |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 9 | 17 |
| Avg per match | 3 | 5.7 |
| 1st in | 162/253 | 196/283 |
| %1st in | 64% | 69% |
| 1st pts | 110/162 | 146/196 |
| %1st pts | 68% | 74% |
| 2nd pts | 47/91 | 39/87 |
| %2nd pts | 52% | 45% |
Ugo Carabelli struck 9 aces (3 per match). Alejandro Dellien Velasco struck 17 aces (5.7 per match). Ugo Carabelli won 68% points on his first serve. He very solid his second serve to win 52% of the points. On the other side, Alejandro Dellien Velasco won 74% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 45% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Ugo Carabelli | Alejandro Dellien Velasco |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 15 | 10 |
| Converted | 15/25 | 10/29 |
| % Converted | 60% | 34% |
| Conceded | 22 | 20 |
| Saved | 12 | 12 |
| % Saved | 55% | 60% |
| Times Broken | 10 | 8 |
Camilo broke his opponents 15 times with a 60% conversion rate. The Argentine conceded his serve 10 times and he saved 55% of the break points that he conceded. Murkel broke his opponents 10 times with a 34% conversion rate. Alejandro Dellien Velasco conceded his serve 8 times and he saved 60% of the break points that he conceded.
| Ugo Carabelli | |||||
| R1 Schwartzman |
R2 Ivan Justo |
1/4 Pablo Ficovich |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 4-6 6-3 6-4 | 7-5 2-6 7-5 | 3-6 6-1 6-0 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 | |
| Tot Games | 29 | 32 | 22 | 83 | |
| pts | 96-87 | 94-97 | 75-54 | 265-238 | |
| Total points | 183 | 191 | 129 | 503 | |
| Winners | 42 | 40 | 28 | 110 | |
| %Winners | 44% | 43% | 37% | 42% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 5 | 1 | 3 | 9 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | |
| 1st in | 61/95 | 62/94 | 39/64 | 162/253 | |
| % 1st in | 64% | 66% | 61% | 64% | |
| 1st pts | 42/61 | 40/62 | 28/39 | 110/162 | |
| % 1st pts | 69% | 65% | 72% | 68% | |
| 2nd pts | 15/34 | 16/32 | 16/25 | 47/91 | |
| % 2nd pts | 44% | 50% | 64% | 52% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 5 | 5 | 5 | 15 | |
| Converted | 5/9 | 5/10 | 5/6 | 15/25 | |
| Converted % | 56% | 50% | 83% | 60% | |
| Conceded | 10 | 10 | 2 | 22 | |
| Saved | 6/10 | 5/10 | 1/2 | 12 | |
| Saved % | 60% | 50% | 50% | 53% | |
| Times Broken | 4 | 5 | 1 | 10 | |
| Alejandro Dellien Velasco | |||||
| R1 Alves |
R2 Meligeni |
1/4 Manuel |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-5 3-6 6-1 | 4-6 7-62 6-3 | 7-66 4-6 7-5 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 | |
| Tot Games | 28 | 32 | 35 | 95 | |
| pts | 100-88 | 106-98 | 108-109 | 314-295 | |
| Total points | 188 | 204 | 217 | 609 | |
| Winners | 47 | 50 | 49 | 146 | |
| %Winners | 47% | 47% | 45% | 46% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 10 | 6 | 1 | 17 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 1 | 3 | 7 | |
| 1st in | 61/82 | 67/97 | 68/104 | 196/283 | |
| % 1st in | 74% | 69% | 65% | 69% | |
| 1st pts | 47/61 | 50/67 | 49/68 | 146/196 | |
| % 1st pts | 77% | 75% | 72% | 74% | |
| 2nd pts | 10/21 | 15/30 | 14/36 | 39/87 | |
| % 2nd pts | 48% | 50% | 39% | 45% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 3 | 2 | 5 | 10 | |
| Converted | 3/10 | 2/9 | 5/10 | 10/29 | |
| Converted % | 30% | 22% | 50% | 34% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 6 | 10 | 20 | |
| Saved | 3/4 | 4/6 | 5/10 | 12 | |
| Saved % | 75% | 67% | 50% | 64% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | |
Head 2 Head
LWWLWLWWWL
WLLWLWLWWW Tennis Scores in Rosario Challenger
- Camilo Ugo CarabelliUgo Carabelli – Juan Pablo FicovichPablo Ficovich (3-6 6-1 6-0) – See score progression
- Hugo DellienDellien – Francisco ComesanaComesana (7-67 3-6 6-3) – See score progression
- Sebastian BaezBaez – Francesco PassaroPassaro (6-1 6-2) – See score progression
- Murkel DellienDellien – Juan Manuel CerundoloManuel Cerundolo (7-66 4-6 7-5) – See score progression
- Sebastian BaezBaez – Francesco PassaroPassaro (6-1 6-2) – See score progression
- Hugo DellienDellien – Francisco ComesanaComesana (7-6(7) 3-6 6-3) – See score progression
- Camilo Ugo CarabelliUgo Carabelli – Juan Pablo FicovichPablo Ficovich (3-6 6-1 6-0) – See score progression
- Murkel DellienDellien – Juan Manuel CerundoloManuel Cerundolo (7-6(6) 4-6 7-5) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Camilo Ugo CarabelliUgo Carabelli – Murkel Alejandro Dellien VelascoAlejandro Dellien Velasco (6-1) – H2H and prediction
- Sebastian BaezBaez – Hugo DellienDellien (3-0) – H2H and prediction
