Rio Noguchi and Elias Ymer will play each other in the quarter of the Chennai Challenger for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Friday at 1:30 pm on CENTRE COURT. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Elias Ymer who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Elias Ymer is the pick to win this match.
Elias Ymer -> 1.71
Rio Noguchi -> 2.04
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Prediction and head to head Rio Noguchi vs. Elias Ymer
There is no head to head record between Rio Noguchi and Elias Ymer since this will be the first time that they will play each other in the main tour.
Rio Noguchi
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 17-9 | 17-9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 41-31 | 36-22 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 4-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 19-31 | 12-18 | 2-7 | 2-2 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 54-22 | 41-10 | 9-9 | 0-1 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 25-26 | 18-18 | 7-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 251, the Japanese got to the quarter after beating Kimmer Coppejans 7-5 3-1 ret. and Jacopo Berrettini 7-5 6-3.
In the 2nd round, The Japanese had a good straight sets win against Berrettini (7-5 6-3). During the match, Noguchi scored 68 points vs Berrettini’s 62. Noguchi was very aggressive to blast 27 winners.
Regarding the service games, Noguchi was unable to score even 1 ace and he committed only 2 double faults. Rio Noguchi lost the serve 3 times and he saved 1 break points. Furthermore, Noguchi put 63% of his first serves in, winning 75% (27/36) of the points behind his 1st serve and 24% (5/21) on the 2nd serve. The Japanese broke Berrettini 6 times after converting 46% of his break points (6/13).
Noguchi has a solid record in the last 10 years having won 60% of his matches (339-230). 10-2 on hard in 2025. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this competition, Noguchi has an overall 234-142 match record in the last years on hard.
His best result of the current year was winning the title the Nonthaburi 2 Challenger where he defeated Jie Cui in the final 7-6(9) 6-2.
Rio has an overall 10-2 win-loss record in 2025, 10-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Chennai Challenger
Noguchi has never competed in this tournament before.
Elias Ymer
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 10-8 | 6-3 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 24-32 | 7-15 | 6-9 | 8-7 | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 42-41 | 10-13 | 24-17 | 7-10 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 39-32 | 12-11 | 20-15 | 5-4 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 35-29 | 9-9 | 20-11 | 6-8 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 332, Elias reached the quarter after beating Duje Ajdukovic 6-2 6-7(4) 6-2 and Jay Clarke 7-5 7-6(2).
In the 2nd round, The Swede had a good straight sets win against Clarke (7-5 7-62). During the match Ymer scored 93 points vs Clarke’s 82. Elias was extremely aggressive to blast 37 winners.
About the serving games, Ymer struck 4 aces and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Overall, Elias Ymer was quite effective on serve to win 71% (37/52) of his 1st serve and 59% (16/27) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Ymer broke Clarke twice after converting 29% of his break points (2/7).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Elias has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 54% of the points he played.
The Swede has a compiled 2-0 win-loss record in 2025, 2-0 on hard (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Noguchi | Ymer |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 2 |
| Tot Set | 5 | 5 |
| Tot Games | 37 | 54 |
| Pts | 127-110 | 194-165 |
| Total Points | 237 | 359 |
| Winners | 48 | 80 |
| %Winners | 38% | 41% |
Both Noguchi and Ymer played 2 matches. At the moment, Elias Ymer surrendered 1 set while Rio Noguchi hasn’t dropped a set so far. Talking about their workload, Noguchi and Ymer have played the same amount of sets 5. However, Noguchi played 17 games less than Ymer. Rio scored 48 winners (38% of the total points). On the other side, The Swede fired 80 winners (41%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Noguchi | Ymer |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 1 | 5 |
| Avg per match | 0.5 | 2.5 |
| 1st in | 66/113 | 109/167 |
| %1st in | 58% | 65% |
| 1st pts | 48/66 | 80/109 |
| %1st pts | 73% | 73% |
| 2nd pts | 16/47 | 33/58 |
| %2nd pts | 34% | 57% |
Noguchi managed to score 1 ace (0.5 per match). Ymer also struck 5 aces (2.5 per match). Noguchi won 73% points on his first serve. He pretty effective on his second serve to win 34% of the points. On the other side, Ymer won 73% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 57% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Noguchi | Ymer |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 11 | 7 |
| Converted | 11/23 | 7/15 |
| % Converted | 48% | 47% |
| Conceded | 11 | 7 |
| Saved | 5 | 5 |
| % Saved | 45% | 71% |
| Times Broken | 6 | 2 |
The Japanese broke his opponents 11 times with a 48% conversion rate. Noguchi conceded his serve 6 times and he saved 45% of the break points that he conceded. Elias broke his opponents 7 times with a 47% conversion rate. Ymer conceded his serve twice and he saved 71% of the break points that he conceded.
| Noguchi | ||||
| R1 Coppejans |
R2 Berrettini |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-5 3-1 ret. | 7-5 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Tot Games | 16 | 21 | 37 | |
| pts | 59-48 | 68-62 | 127-110 | |
| Total points | 107 | 130 | 237 | |
| Winners | 21 | 27 | 48 | |
| %Winners | 36% | 40% | 38% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Double Faults | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| 1st in | 30/56 | 36/57 | 66/113 | |
| % 1st in | 54% | 63% | 58% | |
| 1st pts | 21/30 | 27/36 | 48/66 | |
| % 1st pts | 70% | 75% | 73% | |
| 2nd pts | 11/26 | 5/21 | 16/47 | |
| % 2nd pts | 42% | 24% | 34% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 5 | 6 | 11 | |
| Converted | 5/10 | 6/13 | 11/23 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 46% | 48% | |
| Conceded | 7 | 4 | 11 | |
| Saved | 4/7 | 1/4 | 5 | |
| Saved % | 57% | 25% | 41% | |
| Times Broken | 3 | 3 | 6 | |
| Ymer | ||||
| R1 Ajdukovic |
R2 Clarke |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 6-74 6-2 | 7-5 7-62 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 5 | |
| Tot Games | 29 | 25 | 54 | |
| pts | 101-83 | 93-82 | 194-165 | |
| Total points | 184 | 175 | 359 | |
| Winners | 43 | 37 | 80 | |
| %Winners | 43% | 40% | 41% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 1 | 4 | 5 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| 1st in | 57/88 | 52/79 | 109/167 | |
| % 1st in | 65% | 66% | 65% | |
| 1st pts | 43/57 | 37/52 | 80/109 | |
| % 1st pts | 75% | 71% | 73% | |
| 2nd pts | 17/31 | 16/27 | 33/58 | |
| % 2nd pts | 55% | 59% | 57% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 5 | 2 | 7 | |
| Converted | 5/8 | 2/7 | 7/15 | |
| Converted % | 63% | 29% | 47% | |
| Conceded | 3 | 4 | 7 | |
| Saved | 2/3 | 3/4 | 5 | |
| Saved % | 67% | 75% | 71% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
Head 2 Head
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Upcoming matches in the draw
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- Billy HarrisHarris – Timofey SkatovSkatov (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Oleksandr OvcharenkoOvcharenko – Dalibor SvrcinaSvrcina (0-0) – H2H and prediction
