Iga Swiatek and Madison Keys will fight against each other in the semifinal of the Australian Open for the 6th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Thursday at 9:30 pm on Rod Laver Arena. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Iga Swiatek who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Iga Swiatek is the pick to win this match.
Iga Swiatek -> 1.2
Madison Keys -> 4.8
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Prediction and head to head Iga Swiatek vs. Madison Keys
This will be the 6th time that Iga Swiatek and Madison Keys play each other. The head to head is 4-1 for Swiatek (see full H2H stats),but they are 1-1 on hard.
The last time that they played, Swiatek won 6-1 6-3 in the quarter in Rome back in 2024.
Highlights Iga Swiatek vs Madison Keys – Rome 14-May-2024
Iga Swiatek
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 27-9 | 21-6 | 6-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 64-9 | 29-5 | 26-2 | 7-1 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 68-11 | 42-8 | 19-2 | 0-0 | 7-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 67-9 | 42-6 | 18-1 | 5-1 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 36-15 | 18-10 | 12-2 | 2-1 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 2, the Pole reached the semifinal after defeating Katerina Siniakova 6-3 6-4, Rebecca Sramkova 6-0 6-2, Emma Raducanu 6-1 6-0, Eva Lys 6-0 6-1 and Emma Navarro 6-1 6-2.
In the quarter, Iga had a good straight sets win against Navarro (6-1 6-2). During the match, Swiatek scored 67 points vs Navarro’s 45. The Pole was very aggressive to blast 23 winners.
Talking about the service games, Swiatek scored just 1 ace in the encounter and she committed only 2 double faults. Iga Swiatek conceded no breaks for the entire match to save 1 break points. Furthermore, Swiatek put 53% of her first serves in, winning 82% (23/28) of the points behind her 1st serve and 48% (12/25) on the 2nd serve. Swiatek broke Navarro 5 times after converting 56% of her break points (5/9).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Pole hasn’t surrendered yet a set in this tournament to win 63% of the points she played.
Swiatek has a great win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 82% of her matches (358-77). 9-1 on hard in 2025. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this tournament, Swiatek has a composed 171-43 record in the last years on hard.
The Pole’s best result of the current season was reaching the final in Australia.
The Pole has a composed 9-1 win-loss record in 2025, 9-1 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the Australian Open
Madison Keys
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 24-6 | 19-3 | 5-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 24-12 | 7-6 | 13-4 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 33-15 | 19-9 | 5-3 | 0-2 | 9-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 30-20 | 25-12 | 4-4 | 0-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 11-15 | 3-9 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 5-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 14, Keys got to the semifinal after beating Ann Li 6-4 7-5, Elena Gabriela Ruse 7-6(1) 2-6 7-5, Danielle Rose Collins 6-4 6-4, Elena Rybakina 6-3 1-6 6-3 and Elina Svitolina 3-6 6-3 6-4.
In the quarter against Svitolina, Keys recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (3-6 6-3 6-4). During the match Keys scored 90 points vs Svitolina’s 89. Madison was extremely aggressive to blast 40 winners.
Talking about serving, Keys blasted 6 aces and she committed only 4 double faults. Overall, Madison Keys was pretty effective on serve to win 77% (40/52) of her 1st serve and 51% (18/35) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent her to concede the serve once. The American broke Svitolina twice after converting 22% of her break points (2/9).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The American has conceded 3 set in the tournament to win 52% of the points she played.
Her best result of the current season was conquering the title in Adelaide where she beat Jessica Pegula in the final 6-3 4-6 6-1.
Keys has an overall 12-1 win-loss record in 2025, 12-1 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the Australian Open
Previously, her best result was reaching the semifinal in 2015 and 2022. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Swiatek | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 5 | 5 |
| Tot Set | 10 | 13 |
| Tot Games | 74 | 128 |
| Pts | 299-174 | 418-392 |
| Total Points | 473 | 810 |
| Winners | 110 | 190 |
| %Winners | 37% | 45% |
Both Swiatek and Keys played 5 matches. At the moment, Madison Keys conceded 3 sets while Iga Swiatek hasn’t conceded a set so far. Swiatek has played 3 set(s) less than Keys (10 vs 13). Therefore, Swiatek played 54 games less than Keys. Iga scored 110 winners (37% of the total points). On the other side, Madison bagged 190 winners (45%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Swiatek | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 9 | 21 |
| Avg per match | 1.8 | 4.2 |
| 1st in | 135/219 | 278/401 |
| %1st in | 62% | 69% |
| 1st pts | 110/135 | 190/278 |
| %1st pts | 81% | 68% |
| 2nd pts | 49/84 | 63/123 |
| %2nd pts | 58% | 51% |
Swiatek scored 9 aces (1.8 per match). Keys scored 21 aces (4.2 per match). Swiatek won 81% points behind her first serve. She quite strong on her second serve to win 58% of the points. On the other side, Keys won 68% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 51% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Swiatek | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 24 | 17 |
| Converted | 24/41 | 17/35 |
| % Converted | 59% | 49% |
| Conceded | 6 | 28 |
| Saved | 4 | 16 |
| % Saved | 67% | 57% |
| Times Broken | 2 | 12 |
Swiatek broke her opponents 24 times with a 59% conversion rate. The Pole lost her serve twice and she saved 67% of the break points that she conceded. Keys broke her opponents 17 times with a 49% conversion rate. Keys conceded her serve 12 times and she saved 57% of the break points that she conceded.
| Swiatek | |||||||
| R1 Siniakova |
R2 Sramkova |
R3 Raducanu |
R4 Lys |
1/4 Navarro |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-4 | 6-0 6-2 | 6-1 6-0 | 6-0 6-1 | 6-1 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | |
| Tot Games | 19 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 15 | 74 | |
| pts | 65-47 | 49-26 | 59-29 | 59-27 | 67-45 | 299-174 | |
| Total points | 112 | 75 | 88 | 86 | 112 | 473 | |
| Winners | 31 | 15 | 20 | 21 | 23 | 110 | |
| %Winners | 48% | 31% | 34% | 36% | 34% | 37% | |
| SERVE | |||||||
| Aces | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 | |
| Double Faults | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 | |
| 1st in | 39/55 | 18/37 | 24/35 | 26/39 | 28/53 | 135/219 | |
| % 1st in | 71% | 49% | 69% | 67% | 53% | 62% | |
| 1st pts | 31/39 | 15/18 | 20/24 | 21/26 | 23/28 | 110/135 | |
| % 1st pts | 79% | 83% | 83% | 81% | 82% | 81% | |
| 2nd pts | 7/16 | 13/19 | 8/11 | 9/13 | 12/25 | 49/84 | |
| % 2nd pts | 44% | 68% | 73% | 69% | 48% | 58% | |
| Breaks | |||||||
| Won | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 24 | |
| Converted | 4/5 | 5/6 | 5/12 | 5/9 | 5/9 | 24/41 | |
| Converted % | 80% | 83% | 42% | 56% | 56% | 59% | |
| Conceded | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | |
| Saved | 1/3 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 2/2 | 1/1 | 4 | |
| Saved % | 33% | – | – | 100% | 100% | 47% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| Keys | |||||||
| R1 Li |
R2 Gabriela Ruse |
R3 Collins |
R4 Rybakina |
1/4 Svitolina |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 7-5 | 7-61 2-6 7-5 | 6-4 6-4 | 6-3 1-6 6-3 | 3-6 6-3 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 13 | |
| Tot Games | 22 | 33 | 20 | 25 | 28 | 128 | |
| pts | 65-58 | 111-103 | 64-56 | 88-86 | 90-89 | 418-392 | |
| Total points | 123 | 214 | 120 | 174 | 179 | 810 | |
| Winners | 32 | 44 | 36 | 38 | 40 | 190 | |
| %Winners | 49% | 40% | 56% | 43% | 44% | 45% | |
| SERVE | |||||||
| Aces | 6 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 21 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 19 | |
| 1st in | 44/62 | 68/98 | 52/65 | 62/89 | 52/87 | 278/401 | |
| % 1st in | 71% | 69% | 80% | 70% | 60% | 69% | |
| 1st pts | 32/44 | 44/68 | 36/52 | 38/62 | 40/52 | 190/278 | |
| % 1st pts | 73% | 65% | 69% | 61% | 77% | 68% | |
| 2nd pts | 10/18 | 15/30 | 7/13 | 13/27 | 18/35 | 63/123 | |
| % 2nd pts | 56% | 50% | 54% | 48% | 51% | 51% | |
| Breaks | |||||||
| Won | 3 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 17 | |
| Converted | 3/3 | 4/8 | 3/6 | 5/9 | 2/9 | 17/35 | |
| Converted % | 100% | 50% | 50% | 56% | 22% | 49% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 7 | 2 | 13 | 2 | 28 | |
| Saved | 3/4 | 2/7 | 1/2 | 9/13 | 1/2 | 16 | |
| Saved % | 75% | 29% | 50% | 69% | 50% | 55% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 12 | |
Head 2 Head
LWLWWWWLWL
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