Aryna Sabalenka and Paula Badosa will clash against each other in the semifinal of the Australian Open for the 8th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Thursday at 7:30 pm on Rod Laver Arena. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aryna Sabalenka who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Aryna Sabalenka is the pick to win this match.
Aryna Sabalenka -> 1.26
Paula Badosa -> 4.05
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Prediction and head to head Aryna Sabalenka vs. Paula Badosa
This will be the 8th time that Aryna Sabalenka and Paula Badosa face off. The head to head is 5-2 for Sabalenka (see full H2H stats), but Badosa leads 2-1 on hard.
The last time that they played, Sabalenka won 7-5 6-1 in the 3rd round in at the French Open back in 2024.
Highlights Aryna Sabalenka vs Paula Badosa – French Open 01-June-2024
Aryna Sabalenka
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 34-6 | 23-4 | 11-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 56-14 | 38-7 | 15-4 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 55-14 | 35-9 | 14-3 | 0-0 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 33-22 | 20-15 | 9-5 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 45-18 | 24-11 | 13-3 | 1-1 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
Currently world no. 1 Sabalenka reached the semifinal after defeating Sloane Stephens 6-3 6-2, Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 6-3 7-5, Clara Tauson 7-6(5) 6-4, Mirra Andreeva 6-1 6-2 and Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova 6-2 2-6 6-3.
In the quarter, Sabalenka defeated Pavlyuchenkova (6-2 2-6 6-3). During the match, Sabalenka scored 81 points vs Pavlyuchenkova’s 73. Sabalenka was exceptionally aggressive to blast 34 winners.
Talking about the service games, Sabalenka blasted 3 aces and she committed only 3 double faults. Aryna Sabalenka lost the serve 5 times and she saved 3 break points. Furthermore, Sabalenka put 69% of her first serves in, winning 65% (34/52) of the points behind her 1st serve and 43% (10/23) on the 2nd serve. Sabalenka broke Pavlyuchenkova 6 times after converting 75% of her break points (6/8).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Belarussian has lost 1 set in this event to conquer 55% of the points she played.
Sabalenka has a great win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 70% of her matches (384-168). 10-0 on hard in 2025. In connection with her performance on the same surface of this tournament, Sabalenka has a composed 237-92 record in the last years on hard.
Her best result of the current year was conquering the title in Brisbane where she defeated Polina Kudermetova in the final 4-6 6-3 6-2.
Sabalenka has an aggregate 10-0 win-loss record in 2025, 10-0 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the Australian Open
Paula Badosa
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 12-7 | 12-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 37-19 | 26-11 | 6-5 | 0-1 | 5-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 18-9 | 6-4 | 11-4 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 32-22 | 20-13 | 8-5 | 1-2 | 3-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 43-17 | 19-9 | 17-3 | 4-3 | 3-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 12, Badosa got to the semifinal after defeating Xinyu Wang 6-3 7-6(5), Talia Gibson 6-1 6-0, Marta Kostyuk 6-4 4-6 6-3, Olga Danilovic 6-1 7-6(2) and Cori Gauff 7-5 6-4.
In the quarter, Paula had a good straight sets win against Gauff (7-5 6-4). During the match Badosa scored 78 points vs Gauff’s 71. Paula was exceptionally aggressive to blast 23 winners.
Talking about serving, Badosa made 3 aces and she committed only 2 double faults. Paula Badosa lost the serve twice and she saved 1 break points. Furthermore, Badosa put 57% of her first serves in, winning 64% (23/36) of the points behind her 1st serve and 63% (17/27) on the 2nd serve. The Spaniard broke Gauff 4 times after converting 40% of her break points (4/10).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Spaniard has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 55% of the points she played.
Badosa has an aggregate 6-2 win-loss record in 2025, 6-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the Australian Open
Previously, her best result was reaching the 4th round in 2022. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Sabalenka | Badosa |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 5 | 5 |
| Tot Set | 11 | 11 |
| Tot Games | 101 | 106 |
| Pts | 374-302 | 374-306 |
| Total Points | 676 | 680 |
| Winners | 148 | 148 |
| %Winners | 40% | 40% |
Both Sabalenka and Badosa played 5 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Aryna Sabalenka dropped 1 set, while Paula Badosa conceded 1 set. Talking about their workload, Sabalenka and Badosa have played the same amount of sets 11. However, Sabalenka played 5 games less than Badosa. Aryna scored 148 winners (40% of the total points). On the other side, Badosa struck 148 winners (40%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Sabalenka | Badosa |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 10 | 19 |
| Avg per match | 2 | 3.8 |
| 1st in | 226/327 | 210/337 |
| %1st in | 69% | 62% |
| 1st pts | 148/226 | 148/210 |
| %1st pts | 65% | 70% |
| 2nd pts | 51/101 | 72/127 |
| %2nd pts | 50% | 57% |
Sabalenka recorded 10 aces (2 per match). Badosa made 19 aces (3.8 per match). Sabalenka won 65% points on her first serve. She pretty solid on her second serve to win 50% of the points. On the other side, Badosa won 70% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 57% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Sabalenka | Badosa |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 26 | 21 |
| Converted | 26/51 | 21/41 |
| % Converted | 51% | 51% |
| Conceded | 33 | 26 |
| Saved | 18 | 16 |
| % Saved | 55% | 62% |
| Times Broken | 15 | 10 |
Aryna broke her opponents 26 times with a 51% conversion rate. Aryna dropped her serve 15 times and she saved 55% of the break points that she conceded. Paula broke her opponents 21 times with a 51% conversion rate. Paula conceded her serve 10 times and she saved 62% of the break points that she conceded.
| Sabalenka | |||||||
| R1 Stephens |
R2 Bouzas |
R3 Tauson |
R4 Andreeva |
1/4 Pavlyuchenkova |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-2 | 6-3 7-5 | 7-65 6-4 | 6-1 6-2 | 6-2 2-6 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 | |
| Tot Games | 17 | 21 | 23 | 15 | 25 | 101 | |
| pts | 63-46 | 77-64 | 95-86 | 58-33 | 81-73 | 374-302 | |
| Total points | 109 | 141 | 181 | 91 | 154 | 676 | |
| Winners | 22 | 33 | 31 | 28 | 34 | 148 | |
| %Winners | 35% | 43% | 33% | 48% | 42% | 40% | |
| SERVE | |||||||
| Aces | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 10 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | |
| 1st in | 32/46 | 54/80 | 52/72 | 36/54 | 52/75 | 226/327 | |
| % 1st in | 70% | 68% | 72% | 67% | 69% | 69% | |
| 1st pts | 22/32 | 33/54 | 31/52 | 28/36 | 34/52 | 148/226 | |
| % 1st pts | 69% | 61% | 60% | 78% | 65% | 65% | |
| 2nd pts | 8/14 | 15/26 | 8/20 | 10/18 | 10/23 | 51/101 | |
| % 2nd pts | 57% | 58% | 40% | 56% | 43% | 50% | |
| Breaks | |||||||
| Won | 5 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 26 | |
| Converted | 5/13 | 5/6 | 6/17 | 4/7 | 6/8 | 26/51 | |
| Converted % | 38% | 83% | 35% | 57% | 75% | 51% | |
| Conceded | 2 | 11 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 33 | |
| Saved | 0/2 | 8/11 | 4/9 | 3/3 | 3/8 | 18 | |
| Saved % | 0% | 73% | 44% | 100% | 38% | 51% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 15 | |
| Badosa | |||||||
| R1 Wang |
R2 Gibson |
R3 Kostyuk |
R4 Danilovic |
1/4 Gauff |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 7-65 | 6-1 6-0 | 6-4 4-6 6-3 | 6-1 7-62 | 7-5 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 | |
| Tot Games | 22 | 13 | 29 | 20 | 22 | 106 | |
| pts | 65-62 | 51-21 | 115-104 | 65-48 | 78-71 | 374-306 | |
| Total points | 127 | 72 | 219 | 113 | 149 | 680 | |
| Winners | 34 | 19 | 41 | 31 | 23 | 148 | |
| %Winners | 52% | 37% | 36% | 48% | 29% | 40% | |
| SERVE | |||||||
| Aces | 3 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 19 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 | |
| 1st in | 51/69 | 22/40 | 63/108 | 38/57 | 36/63 | 210/337 | |
| % 1st in | 74% | 55% | 58% | 67% | 57% | 62% | |
| 1st pts | 34/51 | 19/22 | 41/63 | 31/38 | 23/36 | 148/210 | |
| % 1st pts | 67% | 86% | 65% | 82% | 64% | 70% | |
| 2nd pts | 10/18 | 12/18 | 24/45 | 9/19 | 17/27 | 72/127 | |
| % 2nd pts | 56% | 67% | 53% | 47% | 63% | 57% | |
| Breaks | |||||||
| Won | 3 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 21 | |
| Converted | 3/3 | 5/5 | 5/15 | 4/8 | 4/10 | 21/41 | |
| Converted % | 100% | 100% | 33% | 50% | 40% | 51% | |
| Conceded | 3 | 0 | 17 | 3 | 3 | 26 | |
| Saved | 1/3 | 0/0 | 13/17 | 1/3 | 1/3 | 16 | |
| Saved % | 33% | – | 76% | 33% | 33% | 35% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 | |
Head 2 Head
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