Jannik Sinner and Alex De Minaur will face off in the quarter of the Australian Open for the 10^th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Wednesday at 7:30 pm on Rod Laver Arena. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Jannik Sinner who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Jannik Sinner is the pick to win this match.
Jannik Sinner -> 1.161
Alex De Minaur -> 5.5

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Prediction and head to head Jannik Sinner vs. Alex De Minaur

This will be the 10^th time that Jannik Sinner and Alex De Minaur clash against each other. The head to head is 9-0 for Sinner (see full H2H stats), 2-0 on hard.

The last time that they played, Sinner won 6-3 6-4 in the Rubber 2 in 0 back in 2024.

Jannik Sinner

Currently world no. 1 Sinner reached the quarter after beating Nicolas Jarry 7-6(2) 7-6(5) 6-1, Tristan Schoolkate 4-6 6-4 6-1 6-3, Marcos Giron 6-3 6-4 6-2 and Holger Rune 6-3 3-6 6-3 6-2.

In the 4^th round, The Italian defeated Rune (6-3 3-6 6-3 6-2). During the match, Sinner scored 120 points vs Rune’s 95. The Italian was very aggressive to blast 49 winners.

Regarding the service games, Sinner scored 14 aces and he committed only 6 double faults. Overall, Jannik Sinner was very effective on serve to win 83% (49/59) of his 1st serve and 59% (27/46) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Sinner broke Rune 4 times after converting 50% of his break points (4/8).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Sinner has surrendered 2 set in this tournament to conquer 56% of the points he played.

Sinner has a fantastic record in the last 8 years having won 74% of his matches (350-121). 4-0 on hard in 2025. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Sinner has a composed142-46 record in the last 8 years on hard.

The Italian has a compiled 4-0 win-loss record in 2025, 4-0 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the Australian Open

Alex De Minaur

Ranked no. 8, Alex reached the quarter after beating Botic Van De Zandschulp 6-1 7-5 6-4, Tristan Boyer 6-2 6-4 6-3, Francisco Cerundolo 5-7 7-6(3) 6-3 6-3 and Alex Michelsen 6-0 7-6(5) 6-3.

In the 4^th round, De Minaur had a good straight sets win against Michelsen (6-0 7-6⁵ 6-3). During the match De Minaur scored 101 points vs Michelsen’s 76. Alex was pretty aggressive to blast 30 winners.

Talking about serving, De Minaur blasted 5 aces and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Overall, Alex De Minaur was extremely effective on serve to win 79% (30/38) of his 1st serve and 63% (33/52) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. De Minaur broke Michelsen 5 times after converting 45% of his break points (5/11).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Australian has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 56% of the points he played.

De Minaur has an aggregate 6-0 win-loss record in 2025, 6-0 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the Australian Open

Previously, his best result was reaching the 4^th round in 2022, 2023 and 2024. See his history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Sinner	De Minaur
Match played	4	4
Tot Set	14	13
Tot Games	131	127
Pts	456-361	456-353
Total Points	817	809
Winners	186	155
%Winners	41%	34%

Both Sinner and De Minaur played 4 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Jannik Sinner dropped 2 sets, while Alex De Minaur lost 1 set. Sinner has played 1 set more than De Minaur (14 vs 13). Therefore, Sinner played 4 games more than De Minaur. Jannik scored 186 winners (41% of the total points). On the other side, The Australian blasted 155 winners (34%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Sinner	De Minaur
Aces	43	31
Avg per match	10.8	7.8
1st in	229/389	198/384
%1st in	59%	52%
1st pts	186/229	155/198
%1st pts	81%	78%
2nd pts	95/160	110/186
%2nd pts	59%	59%

Sinner blasted 43 aces (10.8 per match). De Minaur fired 31 aces (7.8 per match). Sinner won 81% points on his first serve. He quite strong on his second serve to win 59% of the points. On the other side, De Minaur won 78% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 59% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Sinner	De Minaur
Won	16	23
Converted	16/36	23/51
% Converted	44%	45%
Conceded	15	20
Saved	12	12
% Saved	80%	60%
Times Broken	3	8

Sinner broke his opponents 16 times with a 44% conversion rate. The Italian lost his serve 3 times and he saved 80% of the break points that he conceded. De Minaur broke his opponents 23 times with a 45% conversion rate. Alex conceded his serve 8 times and he saved 60% of the break points that he conceded.

Sinner
	R1 Jarry	R2 Schoolkate	R3 Giron	R4 Rune	Total
Score	7-62 7-65 6-1	4-6 6-4 6-1 6-3	6-3 6-4 6-2	6-3 3-6 6-3 6-2
Tot Set	3	4	3	4	14
Tot Games	33	36	27	35	131
pts	111-88	129-109	96-69	120-95	456-361
Total points	199	238	165	215	817
Winners	48	48	41	49	186
%Winners	43%	37%	43%	41%	41%
SERVE
Aces	7	14	8	14	43
Double Faults	1	5	2	6	14
1st in	58/101	62/100	50/83	59/105	229/389
% 1st in	57%	62%	60%	56%	59%
1st pts	48/58	48/62	41/50	49/59	186/229
% 1st pts	83%	77%	82%	83%	81%
2nd pts	30/43	21/38	17/33	27/46	95/160
% 2nd pts	70%	55%	52%	59%	59%
Breaks
Won	2	5	5	4	16
Converted	2/5	5/13	5/10	4/8	16/36
Converted %	40%	38%	50%	50%	44%
Conceded	2	1	7	5	15
Saved	2/2	0/1	6/7	4/5	12
Saved %	100%	0%	86%	80%	67%
Times Broken	0	1	1	1	3

De Minaur
	R1 Van De Zandschulp	R2 Boyer	R3 Cerundolo	R4 Michelsen	Total
Score	6-1 7-5 6-4	6-2 6-4 6-3	5-7 7-63 6-3 6-3	6-0 7-65 6-3
Tot Set	3	3	4	3	13
Tot Games	29	27	43	28	127
pts	105-78	96-64	154-135	101-76	456-353
Total points	183	160	289	177	809
Winners	48	30	47	30	155
%Winners	46%	31%	31%	30%	34%
SERVE
Aces	13	6	7	5	31
Double Faults	4	3	9	1	17
1st in	59/93	34/64	67/137	38/90	198/384
% 1st in	63%	53%	49%	42%	52%
1st pts	48/59	30/34	47/67	30/38	155/198
% 1st pts	81%	88%	70%	79%	78%
2nd pts	17/34	21/30	39/70	33/52	110/186
% 2nd pts	50%	70%	56%	63%	59%
Breaks
Won	5	6	7	5	23
Converted	5/10	6/14	7/16	5/11	23/51
Converted %	50%	43%	44%	45%	45%
Conceded	5	2	9	4	20
Saved	4/5	1/2	4/9	3/4	12
Saved %	80%	50%	44%	75%	62%
Times Broken	1	1	5	1	8

Tennis Scores – Australian Open

• Simone Bolelli/Andrea VavassoriBolelli/Andrea Vavassori – Nuno Borges/Francisco CabralBorges/Francisco Cabral (6-4 7-6⁴) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Andre Goransson/Sem VerbeekGoransson/Sem Verbeek – Marcelo Arevalo/Mate PavicArevalo/Mate Pavic (6-4 4-6 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Alexander ZverevZverev – Tommy PaulPaul (7-6¹ 7-6⁰ 2-6 6-1) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Novak DjokovicNovak – Carlos AlcarazCarlos (4-6 6-4 6-3 6-4) – See score progression

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Novak DjokovicDjokovic – Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia (4-3) – H2H and prediction
• Jannik SinnerSinner – Alex De MinaurDe Minaur (9-0) – H2H and prediction