Madison Keys and Elina Svitolina will fight against each other in the quarter of the Australian Open for the 6th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Wednesday at 11:30 am on Rod Laver Arena. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Madison Keys who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Madison Keys is the pick to win this match.
Madison Keys -> 1.59
Elina Svitolina -> 2.42
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Prediction and head to head Madison Keys vs. Elina Svitolina
This will be the 6th time that Madison Keys and Elina Svitolina clash against each other. The head to head is 3-2 for Keys (see full H2H stats), 3-2 on hard.
The last time that they fought against each other, Keys won 6-2 6-4 in the 1st round in Adelaide back in 2022.
Highlights Madison Keys vs Elina Svitolina – Adelaide 10-January-2022
Madison Keys
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 28-6 | 19-3 | 9-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 24-12 | 7-6 | 13-4 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 33-15 | 19-9 | 5-3 | 0-2 | 9-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 30-20 | 25-12 | 4-4 | 0-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 11-15 | 3-9 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 5-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 14, Madison got to the quarter after beating Ann Li 6-4 7-5, Elena Gabriela Ruse 7-6(1) 2-6 7-5, Danielle Rose Collins 6-4 6-4 and Elena Rybakina 6-3 1-6 6-3.
In the 4th round, Madison defeated Rybakina (6-3 1-6 6-3). During the match, Keys scored 88 points vs Rybakina ‘s 86. Keys was very aggressive to blast 38 winners.
Regarding the service games, Keys struck 4 aces and she committed only 6 double faults. Madison Keys lost the serve 4 times and she saved 9 break points. Furthermore, Keys put 70% of her first serves in, winning 61% (38/62) of the points behind her 1st serve and 48% (13/27) on the 2nd serve. Madison broke Rybakina 5 times after converting 56% of her break points (5/9).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The American has lost 2 set in this tournament to win 52% of the points she played.
Keys has a solid win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 66% of her matches (238-124). 11-1 on hard in 2025. In connection with her performance on the same surface of this competition, Keys has an overall 144-74 record in the last years on hard.
Her best result of the season was conquering the title in Adelaide where she defeated Jessica Pegula in the final 6-3 4-6 6-1.
The American has an aggregate 11-1 win-loss record in 2025, 11-1 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the Australian Open
Elina Svitolina
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 29-9 | 11-5 | 18-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 30-18 | 16-9 | 10-7 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 21-12 | 4-3 | 12-7 | 0-0 | 5-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 5-8 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 41-20 | 31-13 | 8-4 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 27, the Ukrainian reached the quarter after defeating Sorana Cirstea 6-4 6-4, Caroline Dolehide 6-1 6-4, Jasmine Paolini 2-6 6-4 6-0 and Veronika Kudermetova 6-4 6-1.
In the 4th round, Elina had a good straight sets win against Kudermetova (6-4 6-1). During the match Svitolina scored 59 points vs Kudermetova’s 43. Elina was extremely aggressive to blast 22 winners.
Talking about serving, Svitolina fired 5 aces and she committed only 3 double faults. Elina Svitolina lost the serve twice and she saved 1 break points. Furthermore, Svitolina put 62% of her first serves in, winning 67% (22/33) of the points behind her 1st serve and 55% (11/20) on the 2nd serve. Elina broke Kudermetova 5 times after converting 56% of her break points (5/9).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Ukrainian has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 56% of the points she played.
Svitolina has an aggregate 4-0 win-loss record in 2025, 4-0 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the Australian Open
Previously, her best result was reaching the quarter in 2018 and 2019. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Keys | Svitolina |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 4 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 10 | 9 |
| Tot Games | 100 | 78 |
| Pts | 328-303 | 284-222 |
| Total Points | 631 | 506 |
| Winners | 150 | 109 |
| %Winners | 46% | 38% |
Both Keys and Svitolina played 4 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Madison Keys surrendered 2 sets, while Elina Svitolina conceded 1 set. Keys has played 1 set more than Svitolina (10 vs 9). Therefore, Keys played 22 games more than Svitolina. Madison scored 150 winners (46% of the total points). On the other side, Svitolina bagged 109 winners (38%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Keys | Svitolina |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 15 | 21 |
| Avg per match | 3.8 | 5.3 |
| 1st in | 226/314 | 143/248 |
| %1st in | 72% | 58% |
| 1st pts | 150/226 | 109/143 |
| %1st pts | 66% | 76% |
| 2nd pts | 45/88 | 54/105 |
| %2nd pts | 51% | 51% |
Keys recorded 15 aces (3.8 per match). Svitolina fired 21 aces (5.3 per match). Keys won 66% points behind her first serve. She quite strong on her second serve to win 51% of the points. On the other side, Svitolina won 76% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 51% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Keys | Svitolina |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 15 | 16 |
| Converted | 15/26 | 16/42 |
| % Converted | 58% | 38% |
| Conceded | 26 | 20 |
| Saved | 15 | 14 |
| % Saved | 58% | 70% |
| Times Broken | 11 | 6 |
The American broke her opponents 15 times with a 58% conversion rate. Madison conceded her serve 11 times and she saved 58% of the break points that she conceded. The Ukrainian broke her opponents 16 times with a 38% conversion rate. Elina conceded her serve 6 times and she saved 70% of the break points that she conceded.
| Keys | ||||||
| R1 Li |
R2 Gabriela Ruse |
R3 Collins |
R4 Rybakina |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 7-5 | 7-61 2-6 7-5 | 6-4 6-4 | 6-3 1-6 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 10 | |
| Tot Games | 22 | 33 | 20 | 25 | 100 | |
| pts | 65-58 | 111-103 | 64-56 | 88-86 | 328-303 | |
| Total points | 123 | 214 | 120 | 174 | 631 | |
| Winners | 32 | 44 | 36 | 38 | 150 | |
| %Winners | 49% | 40% | 56% | 43% | 46% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 6 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 15 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 15 | |
| 1st in | 44/62 | 68/98 | 52/65 | 62/89 | 226/314 | |
| % 1st in | 71% | 69% | 80% | 70% | 72% | |
| 1st pts | 32/44 | 44/68 | 36/52 | 38/62 | 150/226 | |
| % 1st pts | 73% | 65% | 69% | 61% | 66% | |
| 2nd pts | 10/18 | 15/30 | 7/13 | 13/27 | 45/88 | |
| % 2nd pts | 56% | 50% | 54% | 48% | 51% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 3 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 15 | |
| Converted | 3/3 | 4/8 | 3/6 | 5/9 | 15/26 | |
| Converted % | 100% | 50% | 50% | 56% | 58% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 7 | 2 | 13 | 26 | |
| Saved | 3/4 | 2/7 | 1/2 | 9/13 | 15 | |
| Saved % | 75% | 29% | 50% | 69% | 56% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 11 | |
| Svitolina | ||||||
| R1 Cirstea |
R2 Dolehide |
R3 Paolini |
R4 Kudermetova |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-4 | 6-1 6-4 | 2-6 6-4 6-0 | 6-4 6-1 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 | |
| Tot Games | 20 | 17 | 24 | 17 | 78 | |
| pts | 75-60 | 68-50 | 82-69 | 59-43 | 284-222 | |
| Total points | 135 | 118 | 151 | 102 | 506 | |
| Winners | 28 | 29 | 30 | 22 | 109 | |
| %Winners | 37% | 43% | 37% | 37% | 38% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 2 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 21 | |
| Double Faults | 4 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 15 | |
| 1st in | 33/57 | 41/64 | 36/74 | 33/53 | 143/248 | |
| % 1st in | 58% | 64% | 49% | 62% | 58% | |
| 1st pts | 28/33 | 29/41 | 30/36 | 22/33 | 109/143 | |
| % 1st pts | 85% | 71% | 83% | 67% | 76% | |
| 2nd pts | 12/24 | 15/23 | 16/38 | 11/20 | 54/105 | |
| % 2nd pts | 50% | 65% | 42% | 55% | 51% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 16 | |
| Converted | 3/12 | 3/10 | 5/11 | 5/9 | 16/42 | |
| Converted % | 25% | 30% | 45% | 56% | 38% | |
| Conceded | 2 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 20 | |
| Saved | 1/2 | 8/8 | 4/7 | 1/3 | 14 | |
| Saved % | 50% | 100% | 57% | 33% | 60% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | |
Head 2 Head
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LWWWWLWWWL Tennis Scores – Australian Open
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- Paula BadosaBadosa – Cori GauffGauff (7-5 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Ronald SlobodchikovSlobodchikov – Florian LakatLakat (6-1 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Markus ErikssonEriksson – George BotezanBotezan (6-4 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Gustav HanssonHansson – Bart StevensStevens (w/o) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Dragos Nicolae MadarasNicolae Madaras – Karl FribergFriberg (7-5 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Madison KeysKeys – Elina SvitolinaSvitolina (3-2) – H2H and prediction
- Emma NavarroNavarro – Iga SwiatekSwiatek (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Paula Badosa GibertBadosa Gibert (5-2) – H2H and prediction
