Aryna Sabalenka and Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova will clash against each other in the quarter of the Australian Open for the 4th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Tuesday at 7:00 pm on Rod Laver Arena. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aryna Sabalenka who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Aryna Sabalenka is the pick to win this match.
Aryna Sabalenka -> 1.141
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova -> 6
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Prediction and head to head Aryna Sabalenka vs. Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova
This will be the 4th time that Aryna Sabalenka and Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova play each other. The head to head is 2-1 for Pavlyuchenkova (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.
The last time that they squared off, Pavlyuchenkova won 6-4 2-6 6-0 in the 3rd round in at the French Open back in 2021.
Highlights Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova vs Aryna Sabalenka – French Open 04-June-2021
Aryna Sabalenka
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 31-5 | 23-4 | 8-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 56-14 | 38-7 | 15-4 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 55-14 | 35-9 | 14-3 | 0-0 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 33-22 | 20-15 | 9-5 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 45-18 | 24-11 | 13-3 | 1-1 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
Currently world no. 1 Aryna reached the quarter after beating Sloane Stephens 6-3 6-2, Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 6-3 7-5, Clara Tauson 7-6(5) 6-4 and Mirra Andreeva 6-1 6-2.
In the 4th round, The Belarussian had a good straight sets win against Andreeva (6-1 6-2). During the match, Sabalenka scored 58 points vs Andreeva’s 33. The Belarussian was very aggressive to blast 28 winners.
Regarding the service games, Sabalenka fired 3 aces and she was pretty steady in conceding no double faults. Aryna Sabalenka was pretty efficient on serve to win 78% (28/36) of her 1st serve and 56% (10/18) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Aryna broke Andreeva 4 times after converting 57% of her break points (4/7).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Aryna hasn’t dropped yet a set in this event to conquer 56% of the points she played.
Sabalenka has a terrific win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 70% of her matches (383-168). 9-0 on hard in 2025. Regarding her performance on the same surface of this event, Sabalenka has an aggregate 236-92 record in the last years on hard.
Her best result of the current season was winning the title in Brisbane where she overcame Polina Kudermetova in the final 4-6 6-3 6-2.
The Belarussian has an overall 9-0 win-loss record in 2025, 9-0 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the Australian Open
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 5-6 | 5-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 27-19 | 20-11 | 3-5 | 3-1 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 24-17 | 6-8 | 15-7 | 3-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 2-3 | 2-1 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 29-20 | 12-11 | 10-3 | 5-4 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 32, the Russian got to the quarter after beating Yue Yuan 6-4 4-6 6-3, Anastasia Potapova 7-6(2) 2-6 6-2, Laura Siegemund 6-1 6-2 and Donna Vekic 7-6(0) 6-0.
In the 4th round, Pavlyuchenkova had a good straight sets win against Vekic (7-60 6-0). During the match Pavlyuchenkova scored 80 points vs Vekic’s 61. Pavlyuchenkova was extremely aggressive to blast 36 winners.
Talking about serving, Pavlyuchenkova made 10 aces and she was extremely steady in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova was pretty effective on serve to win 72% (36/50) of her 1st serve and 59% (13/22) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Anastasia broke Vekic 3 times after converting 50% of her break points (3/6).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Anastasia has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 55% of the points she played.
The Russian has an aggregate 4-1 win-loss record in 2025, 4-1 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the Australian Open
Previously, her best result was reaching the quarter in 2017, 2019 and 2020. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Sabalenka | Pavlyuchenkova |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 4 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 8 | 10 |
| Tot Games | 76 | 92 |
| Pts | 293-229 | 337-281 |
| Total Points | 522 | 618 |
| Winners | 114 | 138 |
| %Winners | 39% | 41% |
Both Sabalenka and Pavlyuchenkova played 4 matches. At the moment, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova dropped 2 sets while Aryna Sabalenka hasn’t lost a set so far. Sabalenka has played 2 set(s) less than Pavlyuchenkova (8 vs 10). Therefore, Sabalenka played 16 games less than Pavlyuchenkova. Aryna scored 114 winners (39% of the total points). On the other side, Pavlyuchenkova bagged 138 winners (41%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Sabalenka | Pavlyuchenkova |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 7 | 18 |
| Avg per match | 1.8 | 4.5 |
| 1st in | 174/252 | 203/308 |
| %1st in | 69% | 66% |
| 1st pts | 114/174 | 138/203 |
| %1st pts | 66% | 68% |
| 2nd pts | 41/78 | 48/105 |
| %2nd pts | 53% | 46% |
Sabalenka struck 7 aces (1.8 per match). Pavlyuchenkova fired 18 aces (4.5 per match). Sabalenka won 66% points behind her first serve. She was rock solid on her second serve to win 53% of the points. On the other side, Pavlyuchenkova won 68% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 46% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Sabalenka | Pavlyuchenkova |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 20 | 20 |
| Converted | 20/43 | 20/44 |
| % Converted | 47% | 45% |
| Conceded | 25 | 26 |
| Saved | 15 | 14 |
| % Saved | 60% | 54% |
| Times Broken | 10 | 12 |
Sabalenka broke her opponents 20 times with a 47% conversion rate. The Belarussian dropped her serve 10 times and she saved 60% of the break points that she conceded. The Russian broke her opponents 20 times with a 45% conversion rate. Pavlyuchenkova conceded her serve 12 times and she saved 54% of the break points that she conceded.
| Sabalenka | ||||||
| R1 Stephens |
R2 Bouzas |
R3 Tauson |
R4 Andreeva |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-2 | 6-3 7-5 | 7-65 6-4 | 6-1 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | |
| Tot Games | 17 | 21 | 23 | 15 | 76 | |
| pts | 63-46 | 77-64 | 95-86 | 58-33 | 293-229 | |
| Total points | 109 | 141 | 181 | 91 | 522 | |
| Winners | 22 | 33 | 31 | 28 | 114 | |
| %Winners | 35% | 43% | 33% | 48% | 39% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | |
| 1st in | 32/46 | 54/80 | 52/72 | 36/54 | 174/252 | |
| % 1st in | 70% | 68% | 72% | 67% | 69% | |
| 1st pts | 22/32 | 33/54 | 31/52 | 28/36 | 114/174 | |
| % 1st pts | 69% | 61% | 60% | 78% | 66% | |
| 2nd pts | 8/14 | 15/26 | 8/20 | 10/18 | 41/78 | |
| % 2nd pts | 57% | 58% | 40% | 56% | 53% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 5 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 20 | |
| Converted | 5/13 | 5/6 | 6/17 | 4/7 | 20/43 | |
| Converted % | 38% | 83% | 35% | 57% | 47% | |
| Conceded | 2 | 11 | 9 | 3 | 25 | |
| Saved | 0/2 | 8/11 | 4/9 | 3/3 | 15 | |
| Saved % | 0% | 73% | 44% | 100% | 54% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 10 | |
| Pavlyuchenkova | ||||||
| R1 Yuan |
R2 Potapova |
R3 Siegemund |
R4 Vekic |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 4-6 6-3 | 7-62 2-6 6-2 | 6-1 6-2 | 7-60 6-0 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10 | |
| Tot Games | 29 | 29 | 15 | 19 | 92 | |
| pts | 95-88 | 95-89 | 67-43 | 80-61 | 337-281 | |
| Total points | 183 | 184 | 110 | 141 | 618 | |
| Winners | 37 | 40 | 25 | 36 | 138 | |
| %Winners | 39% | 42% | 37% | 45% | 41% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 18 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 12 | |
| 1st in | 58/86 | 59/94 | 36/56 | 50/72 | 203/308 | |
| % 1st in | 67% | 63% | 64% | 69% | 66% | |
| 1st pts | 37/58 | 40/59 | 25/36 | 36/50 | 138/203 | |
| % 1st pts | 64% | 68% | 69% | 72% | 68% | |
| 2nd pts | 13/28 | 9/35 | 13/20 | 13/22 | 48/105 | |
| % 2nd pts | 46% | 26% | 65% | 59% | 46% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 6 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 20 | |
| Converted | 6/15 | 7/13 | 4/10 | 3/6 | 20/44 | |
| Converted % | 40% | 54% | 40% | 50% | 45% | |
| Conceded | 7 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 26 | |
| Saved | 2/7 | 4/11 | 3/3 | 5/5 | 14 | |
| Saved % | 29% | 36% | 100% | 100% | 66% | |
| Times Broken | 5 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 12 | |
Head 2 Head
WWWWWWLWWW
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Upcoming matches in the draw
- Elena RybakinaRybakina – Madison KeysKeys (2-2) – H2H and prediction
- Veronika KudermetovaKudermetova – Elina SvitolinaSvitolina (2-0) – H2H and prediction
- Emma NavarroNavarro – Darya KasatkinaKasatkina (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Eva LysLys – Iga SwiatekSwiatek (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Anastasia PavlyuchenkovaPavlyuchenkova (1-2) – H2H and prediction
- Cori GauffGauff – Paula Badosa GibertBadosa Gibert (3-3) – H2H and prediction
