Emma Navarro and Daria Kasatkina will square off in the 4th round of the Australian Open for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Monday at 4:30 pm on John Cain Arena. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Emma Navarro who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Emma Navarro is the pick to win this match.
Emma Navarro -> 1.82
Daria Kasatkina -> 1.99
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Prediction and head to head Emma Navarro vs. Daria Kasatkina
There is no head to head record between Emma Navarro and Daria Kasatkina since this will be the first time that they will play each other in the main tour.
Emma Navarro
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 21-16 | 11-7 | 6-6 | 0-0 | 4-3 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 54-24 | 33-14 | 14-7 | 0-0 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 64-24 | 17-9 | 37-11 | 3-1 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 31-18 | 8-8 | 23-10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 19-13 | 6-6 | 13-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 8 (career-high), the American reached the 4th round after beating Peyton Stearns 6-7(5) 7-6(5) 7-5, Xiyu Wang 6-3 3-6 6-4 and Ons Jabeur 6-4 3-6 6-4.
In the 3rd round, Navarro defeated Jabeur (6-4 3-6 6-4).During the match, Navarro scored less points (1) than Jabeur. In fact, the world no. 8 won 92 points vs Jabeur’s. That means that Navarro was more focused during the important points. Emma was extremely aggressive to blast 39 winners.
Regarding the service games, Navarro scored just 1 ace during the match and she committed only 5 double faults. Emma Navarro lost the serve 6 times and she saved 10 break points. Furthermore, Navarro put 64% of her first serves in, winning 62% (39/63) of the points behind her 1st serve and 37% (13/35) on the 2nd serve. Navarro broke Jabeur 6 times after converting 43% of her break points (6/14).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Navarro has surrendered 3 set in this event to win 51% of the points she played.
Navarro has a solid record in the last 9 years having won 65% of her matches (207-113). 4-2 on hard in 2025. In connection with her performance on the same surface of this tournament, Navarro has an aggregate75-52 record in the last 9 years on hard.
The American has a composed 4-2 win-loss record in 2025, 4-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the Australian Open
Daria Kasatkina
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 14-16 | 9-8 | 5-5 | 0-0 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 40-23 | 24-16 | 8-4 | 0-1 | 8-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 39-25 | 19-15 | 12-6 | 2-1 | 6-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 41-22 | 24-14 | 12-5 | 1-1 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 38-19 | 19-10 | 5-5 | 7-1 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 10, Kasatkina got to the 4th round after defeating Viktoriya Tomova 6-1 6-3, Yafan Wang 6-2 6-0 and Yulia Putintseva 7-5 6-1.
In the 3rd round, Kasatkina had a good straight sets win against Putintseva (7-5 6-1). During the match Kasatkina scored 65 points vs Putintseva’s 46. Darya was pretty aggressive to blast 24 winners.
About the serving games, Kasatkina scored just 1 ace during the entire match and she committed only 7 double faults. Daria Kasatkina lost the serve twice and she saved 1 break points. Furthermore, Kasatkina put 67% of her first serves in, winning 65% (24/37) of the points behind her 1st serve and 56% (10/18) on the 2nd serve. Darya was clinical in her return game without wasting any break point and break Putintseva 6 times.
Overall Performance in this tournament
Darya hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 61% of the points she played.
The Russian has a composed 6-2 win-loss record in 2025, 6-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the Australian Open
Previously, her best result was reaching the 3rd round in 2016 and 2022. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Navarro | Kasatkina |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 3 | 3 |
| Tot Set | 9 | 6 |
| Tot Games | 95 | 49 |
| Pts | 312-298 | 192-124 |
| Total Points | 610 | 316 |
| Winners | 119 | 70 |
| %Winners | 38% | 36% |
Both Navarro and Kasatkina played 3 matches. At the moment, Emma Navarro surrendered 3 sets while Daria Kasatkina hasn’t conceded a set so far. Navarro has played 3 sets more than Kasatkina (9 vs 6). Therefore, Navarro played 46 games more than Kasatkina. The American scored 119 winners (38% of the total points). On the other side, Kasatkina blasted 70 winners (36%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Navarro | Kasatkina |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 9 | 4 |
| Avg per match | 3 | 1.3 |
| 1st in | 188/300 | 105/161 |
| %1st in | 63% | 65% |
| 1st pts | 119/188 | 70/105 |
| %1st pts | 63% | 67% |
| 2nd pts | 48/112 | 36/56 |
| %2nd pts | 43% | 64% |
Navarro blasted 9 aces (3 per match). Kasatkina bagged 4 aces (1.3 per match). Navarro won 63% points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 43% of the points. On the other side, Kasatkina won 67% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 64% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Navarro | Kasatkina |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 21 | 16 |
| Converted | 21/41 | 16/28 |
| % Converted | 51% | 57% |
| Conceded | 37 | 15 |
| Saved | 18 | 12 |
| % Saved | 49% | 80% |
| Times Broken | 19 | 3 |
The American broke her opponents 21 times with a 51% conversion rate. Emma conceded her serve 19 times and she saved 49% of the break points that she conceded. Kasatkina broke her opponents 16 times with a 57% conversion rate. Darya conceded her serve 3 times and she saved 80% of the break points that she conceded.
| Navarro | |||||
| R1 Stearns |
R2 Wang |
R3 Jabeur |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-75 7-65 7-5 | 6-3 3-6 6-4 | 6-4 3-6 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 | |
| Tot Games | 38 | 28 | 29 | 95 | |
| pts | 130-121 | 90-84 | 92-93 | 312-298 | |
| Total points | 251 | 174 | 185 | 610 | |
| Winners | 43 | 37 | 39 | 119 | |
| %Winners | 33% | 41% | 42% | 38% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 7 | 1 | 1 | 9 | |
| Double Faults | 4 | 3 | 5 | 12 | |
| 1st in | 69/117 | 56/85 | 63/98 | 188/300 | |
| % 1st in | 59% | 66% | 64% | 63% | |
| 1st pts | 43/69 | 37/56 | 39/63 | 119/188 | |
| % 1st pts | 62% | 66% | 62% | 63% | |
| 2nd pts | 24/48 | 11/29 | 13/35 | 48/112 | |
| % 2nd pts | 50% | 38% | 37% | 43% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 8 | 7 | 6 | 21 | |
| Converted | 8/15 | 7/12 | 6/14 | 21/41 | |
| Converted % | 53% | 58% | 43% | 51% | |
| Conceded | 11 | 10 | 16 | 37 | |
| Saved | 4/11 | 4/10 | 10/16 | 18 | |
| Saved % | 36% | 40% | 63% | 46% | |
| Times Broken | 7 | 6 | 6 | 19 | |
| Kasatkina | |||||
| R1 Tomova |
R2 Wang |
R3 Putintseva |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-1 6-3 | 6-2 6-0 | 7-5 6-1 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | |
| Tot Games | 16 | 14 | 19 | 49 | |
| pts | 63-38 | 64-40 | 65-46 | 192-124 | |
| Total points | 101 | 104 | 111 | 316 | |
| Winners | 25 | 21 | 24 | 70 | |
| %Winners | 40% | 33% | 37% | 36% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | |
| Double Faults | 0 | 2 | 7 | 9 | |
| 1st in | 34/52 | 34/54 | 37/55 | 105/161 | |
| % 1st in | 65% | 63% | 67% | 65% | |
| 1st pts | 25/34 | 21/34 | 24/37 | 70/105 | |
| % 1st pts | 74% | 62% | 65% | 67% | |
| 2nd pts | 11/18 | 15/20 | 10/18 | 36/56 | |
| % 2nd pts | 61% | 75% | 56% | 64% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 5 | 5 | 6 | 16 | |
| Converted | 5/10 | 5/12 | 6/6 | 16/28 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 42% | 100% | 57% | |
| Conceded | 5 | 7 | 3 | 15 | |
| Saved | 4/5 | 7/7 | 1/3 | 12 | |
| Saved % | 80% | 100% | 33% | 71% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | |
Head 2 Head
LWWLWLWLLW
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- Emma NavarroNavarro – Darya KasatkinaKasatkina (0-0) – H2H and prediction
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