Aryna Sabalenka and Mirra Andreeva will fight against each other in the 4th round of the Australian Open for the 5th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Sunday at 11:30 am on Rod Laver Arena. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aryna Sabalenka who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Aryna Sabalenka is the pick to win this match.
Aryna Sabalenka -> 1.21
Mirra Andreeva -> 4.4
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Prediction and head to head Aryna Sabalenka vs. Mirra Andreeva
This will be the 5th time that Aryna Sabalenka and Mirra Andreeva square off. The head to head is 3-1 for Sabalenka (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.
The last time that they locked horns, Sabalenka won 6-3 6-2 in the semifinal in Brisbane back in January 2025.
Highlights Aryna Sabalenka vs Mirra Andreeva – Brisbane 04-January-2025
Aryna Sabalenka
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 12-3 | 12-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 56-14 | 38-7 | 15-4 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 55-14 | 35-9 | 14-3 | 0-0 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 33-22 | 20-15 | 9-5 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 45-18 | 24-11 | 13-3 | 1-1 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
Currently world no. 1 the Belarussian got to the 4th round after beating Sloane Stephens 6-3 6-2, Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 6-3 7-5 and Clara Tauson 7-6(5) 6-4.
In the 3rd round, The Belarussian had a good straight sets win against Tauson (7-65 6-4). During the match, Sabalenka scored 95 points vs Tauson’s 86. Sabalenka was exceptionally aggressive to blast 31 winners.
Talking about the service games, Sabalenka couldn’t to score even 1 ace throughout the encounter and she committed only 2 double faults. Aryna Sabalenka lost the serve 5 times and she saved 4 break points. Furthermore, Sabalenka put 72% of her first serves in, winning 60% (31/52) of the points behind her 1st serve and 40% (8/20) on the 2nd serve. Sabalenka broke Tauson 6 times after converting 35% of her break points (6/17).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Sabalenka hasn’t lost yet a set in this competition to conquer 55% of the points she played.
Sabalenka has a solid win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 69% of her matches (382-168). 8-0 on hard in 2025. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this competition, Sabalenka has an aggregate 235-92 match record in the last years on hard.
Her best result of the current season was winning the title in Brisbane where she defeated Polina Kudermetova in the final 4-6 6-3 6-2.
The Belarussian has an aggregate 8-0 win-loss record in 2025, 8-0 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the Australian Open
Mirra Andreeva
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 13-3 | 13-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 34-16 | 18-9 | 16-5 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 36-9 | 7-4 | 23-4 | 0-0 | 6-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 39-9 | 21-5 | 18-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 15 (career-high), the Russian reached the 4th round after defeating Marie Bouzkova 6-3 6-3, Moyuka Uchijima 6-4 3-6 7-6(8) and Magdalena Frech 6-2 1-6 6-2.
In the 3rd round, Andreeva defeated Frech (6-2 1-6 6-2). During the match Andreeva scored 82 points vs Frech’s 72. Andreeva was pretty aggressive to blast 30 winners.
Talking about serving, Andreeva struck 4 aces and she committed only 3 double faults. Mirra Andreeva lost the serve 4 times and she saved 6 break points. Furthermore, Andreeva put 63% of her first serves in, winning 63% (30/48) of the points behind her 1st serve and 54% (15/28) on the 2nd serve. Andreeva broke Frech 5 times after converting 56% of her break points (5/9).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Andreeva has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points she played.
The Russian’s best result of the season was getting to the semifinal in Brisbane.
Mirra has a compiled 6-1 win-loss record in 2025, 6-1 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the Australian Open
Previously, her best result was reaching the 4th round in 2024. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Sabalenka | Andreeva |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 3 | 3 |
| Tot Set | 6 | 8 |
| Tot Games | 61 | 73 |
| Pts | 235-196 | 261-229 |
| Total Points | 431 | 490 |
| Winners | 86 | 110 |
| %Winners | 37% | 42% |
Both Sabalenka and Andreeva played 3 matches. At the moment, Mirra Andreeva dropped 2 sets while Aryna Sabalenka hasn’t lost a set so far. Sabalenka has played 2 set(s) less than Andreeva (6 vs 8). Therefore, Sabalenka played 12 games less than Andreeva. Sabalenka scored 86 winners (37% of the total points). On the other side, Andreeva managed to score 110 winners (42%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Sabalenka | Andreeva |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 4 | 14 |
| Avg per match | 1.3 | 4.7 |
| 1st in | 138/198 | 165/252 |
| %1st in | 70% | 65% |
| 1st pts | 86/138 | 110/165 |
| %1st pts | 62% | 67% |
| 2nd pts | 31/60 | 43/87 |
| %2nd pts | 52% | 49% |
Sabalenka recorded 4 aces (1.3 per match). Andreeva blasted 14 aces (4.7 per match). Sabalenka won 62% points on her first serve. She extremely effective on her second serve to win 52% of the points. On the other side, Andreeva won 67% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 49% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Sabalenka | Andreeva |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 16 | 15 |
| Converted | 16/36 | 15/29 |
| % Converted | 44% | 52% |
| Conceded | 22 | 26 |
| Saved | 12 | 15 |
| % Saved | 55% | 58% |
| Times Broken | 10 | 11 |
Sabalenka broke her opponents 16 times with a 44% conversion rate. Sabalenka dropped her serve 10 times and she saved 55% of the break points that she conceded. The Russian broke her opponents 15 times with a 52% conversion rate. Mirra conceded her serve 11 times and she saved 58% of the break points that she conceded.
| Sabalenka | |||||
| R1 Stephens |
R2 Bouzas |
R3 Tauson |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-2 | 6-3 7-5 | 7-65 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | |
| Tot Games | 17 | 21 | 23 | 61 | |
| pts | 63-46 | 77-64 | 95-86 | 235-196 | |
| Total points | 109 | 141 | 181 | 431 | |
| Winners | 22 | 33 | 31 | 86 | |
| %Winners | 35% | 43% | 33% | 37% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | |
| 1st in | 32/46 | 54/80 | 52/72 | 138/198 | |
| % 1st in | 70% | 68% | 72% | 70% | |
| 1st pts | 22/32 | 33/54 | 31/52 | 86/138 | |
| % 1st pts | 69% | 61% | 60% | 62% | |
| 2nd pts | 8/14 | 15/26 | 8/20 | 31/60 | |
| % 2nd pts | 57% | 58% | 40% | 52% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 5 | 5 | 6 | 16 | |
| Converted | 5/13 | 5/6 | 6/17 | 16/36 | |
| Converted % | 38% | 83% | 35% | 44% | |
| Conceded | 2 | 11 | 9 | 22 | |
| Saved | 0/2 | 8/11 | 4/9 | 12 | |
| Saved % | 0% | 73% | 44% | 39% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | |
| Andreeva | |||||
| R1 Bouzkova |
R2 Uchijima |
R3 Frech |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-3 | 6-4 3-6 7-68 | 6-2 1-6 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | |
| Tot Games | 18 | 32 | 23 | 73 | |
| pts | 71-51 | 108-106 | 82-72 | 261-229 | |
| Total points | 122 | 214 | 154 | 490 | |
| Winners | 33 | 47 | 30 | 110 | |
| %Winners | 46% | 44% | 37% | 42% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 1 | 9 | 4 | 14 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 | |
| 1st in | 48/66 | 69/110 | 48/76 | 165/252 | |
| % 1st in | 73% | 63% | 63% | 65% | |
| 1st pts | 33/48 | 47/69 | 30/48 | 110/165 | |
| % 1st pts | 69% | 68% | 63% | 67% | |
| 2nd pts | 6/18 | 22/41 | 15/28 | 43/87 | |
| % 2nd pts | 33% | 54% | 54% | 49% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 6 | 4 | 5 | 15 | |
| Converted | 6/10 | 4/10 | 5/9 | 15/29 | |
| Converted % | 60% | 40% | 56% | 52% | |
| Conceded | 6 | 10 | 10 | 26 | |
| Saved | 3/6 | 6/10 | 6/10 | 15 | |
| Saved % | 50% | 60% | 60% | 57% | |
| Times Broken | 3 | 4 | 4 | 11 | |
Head 2 Head
LWLLWWWWWW
WWWWWWLWLW Tennis Scores – Australian Open
- Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Emma RaducanuRaducanu (6-1 6-0) – See score progression
- Emma NavarroNavarro – Ons JabeurJabeur (6-4 3-6 6-4) – See score progression
- Daria KasatkinaKasatkina – Yulia PutintsevaPutintseva (7-5 6-1) – See score progression
- Elena RybakinaRybakina – Dayana YastremskaYastremska (6-3 6-4) – See score progression
- Eva LysLys – Jaqueline CristianCristian (4-6 6-3 6-3) – See score progression
- Cori GauffGauff – Leylah Annie FernandezAnnie Fernandez (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
- Anastasia PavlyuchenkovaPavlyuchenkova – Laura SiegemundSiegemund (6-1 6-2) – See score progression
- Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Clara TausonTauson (7-65 6-4) – See score progression
- Olga DanilovicDanilovic – Jessica PegulaPegula (7-63 6-1) – See score progression
- Donna VekicVekic – Diana ShnaiderShnaider (7-64 6-73 7-5) – See score progression
- Mirra AndreevaAndreeva – Magdalena FrechFrech (6-2 1-6 6-2) – See score progression
- Paula BadosaBadosa – Marta KostyukKostyuk (6-4 4-6 6-3) – See score progression
- Belinda BencicBencic – Naomi OsakaOsaka (7-63 ret.) – See score progression
- Elena RybakinaRybakina – Dayana YastremskaYastremska (6-3 6-4) – See score progression
- Emma NavarroNavarro – Ons JabeurJabeur (6-4 3-6 6-4) – See score progression
- Daria KasatkinaKasatkina – Yulia PutintsevaPutintseva (7-5 6-1) – See score progression
- Eva LysLys – Jaqueline CristianCristian (4-6 6-3 6-3) – See score progression
- Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Emma RaducanuRaducanu (6-1 6-0) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Madison KeysKeys – Danielle Rose CollinsRose Collins (2-1) – H2H and prediction
- Beatriz Haddad MaiaHaddad Maia – Veronika KudermetovaKudermetova (2-2) – H2H and prediction
- Elina SvitolinaSvitolina – Jasmine PaoliniPaolini (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – (3-1) – H2H and prediction
- Donna VekicVekic – Anastasia PavlyuchenkovaPavlyuchenkova (0-2) – H2H and prediction
- Cori GauffGauff – Belinda BencicBencic (1-1) – H2H and prediction
- Paula Badosa GibertBadosa Gibert – Olga DanilovicDanilovic (1-2) – H2H and prediction
- Emma NavarroNavarro – Darya KasatkinaKasatkina (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Eva LysLys – Iga SwiatekSwiatek (0-1) – H2H and prediction
