Danielle Rose Collins and Madison Keys will clash against each other in the 3rd round of the Australian Open for the 4th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Saturday at 10:00 pm on Rod Laver Arena. Here the head to head stats and relative prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Madison Keys who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Madison Keys is the pick to win this match.
Madison Keys -> 1.61
Danielle Rose Collins -> 2.32
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Prediction and head to head Danielle Rose Collins vs. Madison Keys
This will be the 4th time that Danielle Rose Collins and Madison Keys play each other. The head to head is 2-1 for Keys (see full H2H stats),but they are 1-1 on hard.
The last time that they competed against each other, Keys won 6-1 6-2 in the final in Strasbourg back in 2024.
Highlights Madison Keys vs Danielle Rose Collins – Strasbourg 25-May-2024
Danielle Rose Collins
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 12-9 | 5-4 | 7-4 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 42-17 | 20-10 | 19-5 | 0-1 | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 22-18 | 19-15 | 0-2 | 2-0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 21-12 | 17-6 | 3-4 | 1-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 40-15 | 23-10 | 11-3 | 5-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 11, the American got to the 3rd round after beating Daria Snigur 7-6(4) 6-3 and Destanee Aiava 7-6(4) 4-6 6-2.
In the 2nd round, The American defeated Aiava (7-64 4-6 6-2). During the match, Collins scored 104 points vs Aiava’s 101. Danielle was very aggressive to blast 44 winners.
Regarding the service games, Collins blasted 6 aces and she was not very steady on her 2nd serve to score 12 double faults. Danielle Rose Collins lost the serve 3 times and she saved 9 break points. Furthermore, Collins put 57% of her first serves in, winning 79% (44/56) of the points behind her 1st serve and 42% (18/43) on the 2nd serve. Danielle broke Aiava 4 times after converting 31% of her break points (4/13).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Collins has conceded 1 set in this competition to win 51% of the points she played.
Collins has a solid win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 64% of her matches (257-147). 2-1 on hard in 2025. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this tournament, Collins has an aggregate 168-98 match record in the last years on hard.
Collins has a composed 2-1 win-loss record in 2025, 2-1 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the Australian Open
Madison Keys
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 30-9 | 19-3 | 9-4 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 24-12 | 7-6 | 13-4 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 33-15 | 19-9 | 5-3 | 0-2 | 9-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 30-20 | 25-12 | 4-4 | 0-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 11-15 | 3-9 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 5-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 14, Madison got to the 3rd round after beating Ann Li 6-4 7-5 and Elena Gabriela Ruse 7-6(1) 2-6 7-5.
In the 2nd round, Keys defeated Gabriela Ruse (7-61 2-6 7-5). During the match Keys scored 111 points vs Gabriela Ruse’s 103. Keys was pretty aggressive to blast 44 winners.
About the serving games, Keys scored just 1 ace during the entire match and she committed only 4 double faults. Madison Keys lost the serve 5 times and she saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Keys put 69% of her first serves in, winning 65% (44/68) of the points behind her 1st serve and 50% (15/30) on the 2nd serve. Madison broke Gabriela Ruse 4 times after converting 50% of her break points (4/8).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Madison has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 52% of the points she played.
Her best result of the current season was winning the title in Adelaide where she overcame Jessica Pegula in the final 6-3 4-6 6-1.
Madison has a composed 9-1 win-loss record in 2025, 9-1 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the Australian Open
Previously, her best result was reaching the semifinal in 2015 and 2022. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Collins | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 2 |
| Tot Set | 5 | 5 |
| Tot Games | 53 | 55 |
| Pts | 190-179 | 176-161 |
| Total Points | 369 | 337 |
| Winners | 66 | 76 |
| %Winners | 35% | 43% |
Both Collins and Keys played 2 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Danielle Rose Collins lost 1 set, while Madison Keys conceded 1 set. Talking about their workload, Collins and Keys have played the same amount of sets 5. However, Collins played 2 games less than Keys. Collins scored 66 winners (35% of the total points). On the other side, The American blasted 76 winners (43%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Collins | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 13 | 7 |
| Avg per match | 6.5 | 3.5 |
| 1st in | 94/172 | 112/160 |
| %1st in | 55% | 70% |
| 1st pts | 66/94 | 76/112 |
| %1st pts | 70% | 68% |
| 2nd pts | 39/78 | 25/48 |
| %2nd pts | 50% | 52% |
Collins struck 13 aces (6.5 per match). Keys fired 7 aces (3.5 per match). Collins won 70% points on her first serve. She pretty effective on her second serve to win 50% of the points. On the other side, Keys won 68% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 52% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Collins | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 9 | 7 |
| Converted | 9/28 | 7/11 |
| % Converted | 32% | 64% |
| Conceded | 20 | 11 |
| Saved | 14 | 5 |
| % Saved | 70% | 45% |
| Times Broken | 6 | 6 |
The American broke her opponents 9 times with a 32% conversion rate. The American lost her serve 6 times and she saved 70% of the break points that she conceded. Keys broke her opponents 7 times with a 64% conversion rate. The American conceded her serve 6 times and she saved 45% of the break points that she conceded.
| Collins | ||||
| R1 Snigur |
R2 Aiava |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-64 6-3 | 7-64 4-6 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 5 | |
| Tot Games | 22 | 31 | 53 | |
| pts | 86-78 | 104-101 | 190-179 | |
| Total points | 164 | 205 | 369 | |
| Winners | 22 | 44 | 66 | |
| %Winners | 26% | 42% | 35% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 7 | 6 | 13 | |
| Double Faults | 4 | 12 | 16 | |
| 1st in | 38/73 | 56/99 | 94/172 | |
| % 1st in | 52% | 57% | 55% | |
| 1st pts | 22/38 | 44/56 | 66/94 | |
| % 1st pts | 58% | 79% | 70% | |
| 2nd pts | 21/35 | 18/43 | 39/78 | |
| % 2nd pts | 60% | 42% | 50% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 5 | 4 | 9 | |
| Converted | 5/15 | 4/13 | 9/28 | |
| Converted % | 33% | 31% | 32% | |
| Conceded | 8 | 12 | 20 | |
| Saved | 5/8 | 9/12 | 14 | |
| Saved % | 63% | 75% | 69% | |
| Times Broken | 3 | 3 | 6 | |
| Keys | ||||
| R1 Li |
R2 Gabriela Ruse |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 7-5 | 7-61 2-6 7-5 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 5 | |
| Tot Games | 22 | 33 | 55 | |
| pts | 65-58 | 111-103 | 176-161 | |
| Total points | 123 | 214 | 337 | |
| Winners | 32 | 44 | 76 | |
| %Winners | 49% | 40% | 43% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 6 | 1 | 7 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 4 | 5 | |
| 1st in | 44/62 | 68/98 | 112/160 | |
| % 1st in | 71% | 69% | 70% | |
| 1st pts | 32/44 | 44/68 | 76/112 | |
| % 1st pts | 73% | 65% | 68% | |
| 2nd pts | 10/18 | 15/30 | 25/48 | |
| % 2nd pts | 56% | 50% | 52% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 3 | 4 | 7 | |
| Converted | 3/3 | 4/8 | 7/11 | |
| Converted % | 100% | 50% | 64% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 7 | 11 | |
| Saved | 3/4 | 2/7 | 5 | |
| Saved % | 75% | 29% | 52% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 5 | 6 | |
Head 2 Head
LLWLWWLWWL
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