Lorenzo Musetti and Ben Shelton will play each other in the 3rd round of the Australian Open for the 3rd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Saturday at 5:00 pm on John Cain Arena. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Ben Shelton who should win in 5 sets.

As per the initial odds, Ben Shelton is the pick to win this match.
Ben Shelton -> 1.727
Lorenzo Musetti -> 2.11

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Prediction and head to head Lorenzo Musetti vs. Ben Shelton

This will be the 3rd time that Lorenzo Musetti and Ben Shelton face off. The head to head is 2-0 for Musetti (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.

The last time that they played each other, Musetti won 6-4 7-6(5) in the 3rd round in Miami back in 2024.

Highlights Lorenzo Musetti vs Ben Shelton – Miami 25-March-2024

Lorenzo Musetti

Lorenzo Musetti

3 - 1win/loss

Hard
3-1
I Hard
0-0
Rank
8
High
6
LWLLWWWLLW
See allSTATS
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 45-22 18-11 19-4 8-6 0-1 0-0
2024 46-30 13-12 18-10 3-5 12-3 0-0
2023 32-29 10-10 16-11 0-5 6-3 0-0
2022 44-30 11-10 21-7 12-10 0-3 0-0
2021 36-31 9-8 17-12 10-10 0-1 0-0
See all years

Ranked no. 15 (career-high), Musetti got to the 3rd round after beating Matteo Arnaldi 7-6(4) 4-6 7-6(5) 6-3 and Denis Shapovalov 7-6(3) 7-6(6) 6-2.

In the 2nd round, Musetti had a good straight sets win against Shapovalov (7-63 7-66 6-2). During the match, Musetti scored 123 points vs Shapovalov’s 100. Lorenzo was pretty aggressive to blast 58 winners.

Talking about the service games, Musetti bagged 3 aces and he committed only 4 double faults. Overall, Lorenzo Musetti was extremely effective on serve to win 76% (58/76) of his 1st serve and 54% (19/35) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. The Italian broke Shapovalov 3 times after converting 27% of his break points (3/11).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Musetti has dropped 1 set in this tournament to conquer 53% of the points he played.

Musetti has a winning record in the last 8 years having won 58% of his matches (223-162). 3-1 on hard in 2025. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Musetti has a composed53-47 record in the last 8 years on hard.

The Italian has a compiled 3-1 win-loss record in 2025, 3-1 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the Australian Open

Australian Open
Musetti's Record

Ben Shelton

Ben Shelton

2 - 1win/loss

Hard
2-1
I Hard
0-0
Rank
9
High
5
LLLLWWLWLL
See allSTATS
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 40-24 23-9 7-5 4-6 6-4 0-0
2024 42-26 22-13 8-4 8-5 4-4 0-0
2023 28-26 21-13 4-8 1-2 2-3 0-0
2022 40-11 16-9 0-0 24-2 0-0 0-0
2021 18-7 7-3 5-2 6-2 0-0 0-0
See all years

Ranked no. 20, Ben reached the 3rd round after defeating Brandon Nakashima 7-6(3) 7-5 7-5 and Pablo Carreno-Busta 6-3 6-3 6-7(4) 6-4.

In the 2nd round, Ben had a good straight sets win against Carreno-Busta (6-3 6-3 6-74 6-4). During the match Shelton scored 119 points vs Carreno-Busta’s 101. Ben was very aggressive to blast 58 winners.

About the serving games, Shelton blasted 17 aces and he committed only 4 double faults. Ben Shelton was very effective on serve to win 85% (58/68) of his 1st serve and 70% (30/43) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Shelton broke Carreno-Busta 4 times after converting 80% of his break points (4/5).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Ben has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points he played.

Ben has an overall 2-1 win-loss record in 2025, 2-1 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the Australian Open

Previously, his best result was reaching the quarter in 2023. See his history.

Australian Open
Shelton's Record

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

L.Musetti
B.Shelton
6h:48
6h:48
Time on court​
5h:16
5h:16
!
2h:42
2h:42
Last match​
!
2h:36
2h:36
2
2
Match played
2
2
79
79
Games Played​
78
78
7
7
Set played​​
7
7
292
292
Total points​
235
235
146
146
Avg point​
117.5
117.5
114
114
Winners
107
107
57
57
Avg Winners​
53.5
53.5
39%
39%
Ratio winners
46%
46%
-- Serve --
9
9
Aces
29
29
4.5
4.5
Avg Aces
!
14.5
14.5
9
9
Double Faults
7
7
4.5
4.5
Avg Double Faults
3.5
3.5
114/165
114/165
1st won total​
107/135
107/135
69%
69%
1st won %
!
79%
79%
49/93
49/93
2nd won total​
60/89
60/89
53%
53%
2nd won %
!
67%
67%
-- Break Points --
12/39
12/39
BP won
7/13
7/13
6/19.5
6/19.5
Avg BP won
3.5/6.5
3.5/6.5
31%
31%
Won
!
54%
54%
21
21
Conceded
9
9
10.5
10.5
Avg Conceded
4.5
4.5
9
9
Broken
1
1
!
4.5
4.5
Avg Broken
!
0.5
0.5
12
12
Saved
8
8
See Allstats

Matches, sets, games and points

Points Musetti Shelton
Match played 2 2
Tot Set 7 7
Tot Games 79 78
Pts 292-261 235-209
Total Points 553 444
Winners 114 107
%Winners 39% 46%

Both Musetti and Shelton played 2 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Lorenzo Musetti surrendered 1 set, while Ben Shelton dropped 1 set. Talking about their workload, Musetti and Shelton have played the same amount of sets 7. However, Musetti played 1 game more than Shelton. Lorenzo scored 114 winners (39% of the total points). On the other side, Shelton struck 107 winners (46%).

Serve Performance

Serve Musetti Shelton
Aces 9 29
Avg per match 4.5 14.5
1st in 165/258 135/224
%1st in 64% 60%
1st pts 114/165 107/135
%1st pts 69% 79%
2nd pts 49/93 60/89
%2nd pts 53% 67%

Musetti blasted 9 aces (4.5 per match). Shelton struck 29 aces (14.5 per match). Musetti won 69% points behind his first serve. He pretty effective on his second serve to win 53% of the points. On the other side, Shelton won 79% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 67% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks Musetti Shelton
Won 12 7
Converted 12/39 7/13
% Converted 31% 54%
Conceded 21 9
Saved 12 8
% Saved 57% 89%
Times Broken 9 1

The Italian broke his opponents 12 times with a 31% conversion rate. Lorenzo conceded his serve 9 times and he saved 57% of the break points that he conceded. Ben broke his opponents 7 times with a 54% conversion rate. Shelton conceded his serve once and he saved 89% of the break points that he conceded.

Musetti
R1
Arnaldi		 R2
Shapovalov		 Total
Score 7-64 4-6 7-65 6-3 7-63 7-66 6-2
Tot Set 4 3 7
Tot Games 45 34 79
pts 169-161 123-100 292-261
Total points 330 223 553
Winners 56 58 114
%Winners 33% 47% 39%
SERVE
Aces 6 3 9
Double Faults 5 4 9
1st in 89/147 76/111 165/258
% 1st in 61% 68% 64%
1st pts 56/89 58/76 114/165
% 1st pts 63% 76% 69%
2nd pts 30/58 19/35 49/93
% 2nd pts 52% 54% 53%
Breaks
Won 9 3 12
Converted 9/28 3/11 12/39
Converted % 32% 27% 31%
Conceded 16 5 21
Saved 8/16 4/5 12
Saved % 50% 80% 65%
Times Broken 8 1 9
Shelton
R1
Nakashima		 R2
Carreno-Busta		 Total
Score 7-63 7-5 7-5 6-3 6-3 6-74 6-4
Tot Set 3 4 7
Tot Games 37 41 78
pts 116-108 119-101 235-209
Total points 224 220 444
Winners 49 58 107
%Winners 42% 49% 46%
SERVE
Aces 12 17 29
Double Faults 3 4 7
1st in 67/113 68/111 135/224
% 1st in 59% 61% 60%
1st pts 49/67 58/68 107/135
% 1st pts 73% 85% 79%
2nd pts 30/46 30/43 60/89
% 2nd pts 65% 70% 67%
Breaks
Won 3 4 7
Converted 3/8 4/5 7/13
Converted % 38% 80% 54%
Conceded 3 6 9
Saved 2/3 6/6 8
Saved % 67% 100% 84%
Times Broken 1 0 1

Tennis Scores – Australian Open

Upcoming matches in the draw

Musetti
More Stats
Click here
Shelton

Click for FULL STATS